The Most Predictable Oscars Ever

Sorry this is so late, guys. I'm still recovering from my 75% score. Then again, a 75% is a B in Oscarology. But I'm taking it and running with it.

I went 18/24 overall on Sunday, and 10/12 in the major categories. Unfortunately for the readers, the closest score next to mine was 9/12, so there was no winner. Thanks to you guys who did contribute, though, and for recognition's sake, the runner-up to me was Nicollette, with 9/12, missing only Director in addition to my misses.

Speaking of which, here's a breakdown of Oscar Night, including the awards I missed.

My God, That Set
I'm pretty sure that the set was designed by God himself, because it was BEAUTIFUL. The crystal curtain alone was enough to get the guy an Oscar himself for Art Direction. It was gorgeous.

Wow, She Can Sing
That opening number from Hugh Jackman was great. Better was Anne Hathaway's involvement. I thought she was actually a decent singer, much to my surprise. And "I haven't seen The Reader would become the rallying cry of this Oscars.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz! (1/1) Don't worry, honey, even if you had fainted, you still would have looked beautiful.

Speaking of Beautiful...
Getting the worst snubbing for the most beautiful dress: Marisa Tomei.

Steve and Tina Take the Screenplay Categories
Don't remember who actually won the Screenplay categories? I don't blame you, what with the hilarity Steve Martin and Tina Fey brought upon the audience. By the way, it was Dustin Lance Black for Milk for Original and Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire for Adapted. (3/3) And the Slumdog Count is at 1.

Weirdest. Title. Ever.
After the completely expected win for WALL*E, the animated short La Maison en Petits Cubes won in its category. I forgot to be angry that Presto lost. I was too busy trying to prounounce the winner's title. (4/5)

Carrie's New Man: James Bond!
Sarah Jessica Parker and Daniel Craid aren't the weirdest pairing, but they're up there. Still, props for getting through Best Art Direction and Best Makeup (both Benjamin Button) and Best Costume Design (The Duchess) quickly, though it was the first set of categories that could easily put you to sleep... (6/8)

Give Ben Stiller His Oscar
His biting parody of Joaquin Phoenix's drugged-out performance on David Letterman was the most brilliant moment of the night. And Natalie Portman's reference to his "Haasidic meth lab" doled out the funniest line of the night. By the by, Slumdog took their award, Best Cinematography, raising the SD Count to 2. (7/9)

A Toyland and a Broken Doll
Sorry to Toyland's producers that Seth Rogen laughed at the German title. Seth, much to your dismay, German isn't funny simply because it's German. Nor are you funny simply because Judd Apatow makes your career. (8/10) Then there was that musical number, and oh, God, it was awful. Beyonce resembled a broken Barbie doll (never mind her lip-synching), the younger couples couldn't hold their own, and Hugh Jackman cancelled out his goodwill from the first performance with this disaster. Sorry, Hugh, you're back to neutral for me.

Best Supporting Obviousness
Heath Ledger did deserve this, and I'm glad his family's acceptance speech was eelegant, to say the least. But shocking? Not in the least. (9/11)

Documentarians
Worst two categories of the show? Quite possibly. Man on Wire takes Best Documentary Feature, and Smile Pinki takes Best Documentary Short Subject. (10/13)

Will Smith Presents the Rest of the Show
I'll forgive the Iron Man-type entrance because Will Smith had to present four awards in a row. I'm not joking. Best Visual Effects (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Best Sound Mixing (The Dark Knight's second win of the night), and the first two awards of the Slumdog 4-in-a-row: Best Sound Mixing and Best Film Editing. (The SD Count is now at 4, and my record is 13/17.)

Jai Ho!
Raising the SD Count to 6, Slumdog Millionaire prevailed over a really, really, really, REALLY bad Best Original Song medley and a bad "Jai Ho!" cover by the Pussycat Dolls (ugh) to win Best Original Song and Best Original Score. Which will both be forgotten by next year. (15/19)

What in God's name is Departures?!
Best Foreign Film? Not The Class. Not Waltz with Bashir. No, instead, it's some movie from Japan. That I've never heard of. Stupid (15/20).

The Big Four
Best Director to Danny Boyle (good), Best Actress to Kate Winslet (boo), Best Actor to Sean Penn (yay?), and Best Picture to Slumdog Millionaire (YES!). And with an SD Count of 8 and my personal record fo (18/24). And, like the Oscar night itself, you just want it all to end about two hours in.

Final Length: 3 hrs. and 27 min.
Final Grade: B+ (but it's weak)

Pick Yer Horses

This is it. No more analysis. No more oddsmaking. Just my predictions for the winners of twelve big categories for this year’s Academy Awards. And now it’s time for you to make yours. As stated earlier, however, anyone who attends SMCA currently is welcome to attempt predictions. For the winner, the one who out-predicts me by the largest margin, your prize will be a collection of candy, other prizes, and one Academy Award-winning film, one that will be a personal favorite of mine.

Here’s how it’ll work. In the comments section of this post on Facebook (and only Facebook), you all will put, in the same order I use here, your twelve predicted winners for Oscar night. Not who you want to win; who you truly believe will walk away with the gold. Your first entry is your only entry; you cannot change after you’ve predicted. To win, you must out-predict me.

With all that said, let’s get started!

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Will Win: Sean Penn, Milk

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Will Win: Meryl Streep, Doubt

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Will Win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Original Screenplay
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black

Will Win: Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley

Will Win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Song
"Down to Earth" from WALL-E, Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman (music), Peter Gabriel (lyrics)
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman and M.I.A.

Will Win: “Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)

Best Foreign Language Film
Revanche (Austria)
The Class (France)
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
Departures (Japan)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

Will Win: Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Will Win: WALL-E

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat
Defiance, James Newton Howard
Milk, Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman
WALL-E, Thomas Newman

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Accepting your picks now! Good luck!

I Have Special Skills. Skills That Allow Me...

...that will allow me to pick the Oscar winners. Sorry, bad parody of a bad movie.

I hope you're ready, readers, because after this post, you have only three days to prepare to make your picks. As a reminder, after I place my predictions in a note entitled "Pick Yer Horses", you will have the full week to make your predictions in the twelve categories I have chosen. Those categories are: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Original Song, Best Director, Best Original Score, Best Animated Feature, and Best Picture. You must bet in every category, and the picks must be posted in the comments section of that note. If your picks outscore mine, you will get a fabulous prize package of candy and a few other special things. (Including a copy of a favorite Oscar-winning film of mine!) Anyone who attends SMCA is welcome to place bets. Remember, you have to outpick me; tying me won't help you.

Now that that's out of the way, onto the last four categories!

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Breakdown: Um... is this really a question? Other than Heath Ledger, this is the surest bet at the show this year. WALL-E.

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat
Defiance, James Newton Howard
Milk, Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman
WALL-E, Thomas Newman

Breakdown: Does anyone remember Elfman's music? Newman's most memorable music wasn't original, so it doesn't count in this category. Howard's music was great, but it's hard to win on your movie's only nomination. Desplat's music is the only rival to Rahman's, but there's not much contest. Rahman's got this one sewn up.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Breakdown: Van Sant didn't do a whole lot of directing, just letting his actors do what they do best. Daldry screwed up a brilliant book. Fincher's a terrible campaigner, and is only poisoning the voters' minds. Howard took a few too many liberties with the truth. Boyle's already won all major awards and will take this easy.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Breakdown: Throw it to the Dog. Milk isn't nearly as inspiring as it should be for its subject matter. The Reader and Frost/Nixon just weren't strong enough to qualify for nominations, much less a win. It could be the traditionalistic Button, but with the recent awards sweep, I would bet anything that Slumdog will take it.

All right guys, get ready. Sunday will be the start of the Inaugural AIWWAF Oscar Predict-Off!

"...What's 'In Brugjez'?"

Say that title phonetically. I had someone ask me that earlier this week. *hangs head in shame*

I know I promised y'all the writing categories this week, but I'm throwing in Best Original Song and Best Foreign Language Film for flavor. Next week, along with Best Picture and Best Director, you'll also get Best Original Score and Best Animated Film. Keep those categories in mind, and start doing your research, because you'll need that knowledge soon...

Best Original Screenplay
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black

Breakdown: AKA The Category That Screwed Woody Allen and Jenny Lumet. Not that I'm bitter or anything. I mean, Lumet only crafted the best wedding film's script in recent memory, Rachel Getting Married. And Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona may have been his funniest, sexiest script since 2005's Match Point, and THAT got an Oscar nom, but who cares, really? No, I'm not bitter. Not bitter at all. One good thing did happen, though: Nick Schenk's tragic Gran Torino script got left out, as part of the film's overall snub. Out of the films that were nominated, WALL-E, though a great film in so many respects, shouldn't win because it almost completely ignores the most difficult part of screenwriting: dialogue. Frozen River's nod was great, and that's all it'll get. Happy-Go-Lucky couldn't get its star nominated, so the script's victory feels very dark horse. Like black horse. Black Horse and the Cherry Tree-type dark horse. That leaves it to the incredibly funny In Bruges and the bland, stylized Milk. Though McDonagh deserves it, I'm afraid Black's too young and talented for the Academy to ignore. (By the way, I say that in a good way, not a bad one.)

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley

Breakdown: For all of y'all who thought The Dark Knight deserved a nod here, go back and watch TDK again, paying special attention to before and after Bruce Wayne's toast at the party for Harvey Dent. The writing is truly terrible. Okay, moving on to the nominated scripts. The play adaptations will vote-split, so Morgan and Shanley are out of luck. Roth's gonna get a lot of backlash for essentially remaking his Forrest Gump screenplay and merging it with an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story. Also, Fitzgerald needed only 12 pages for his story. Why did Roth need a 3-hour movie? Hare's script pales in comparison to the original book, and his faux-happy ending still sickens me. So Beaufoy should walk away with this trophy easy.

Best Original Song
"Down to Earth" from WALL-E, Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman (music), Peter Gabriel (lyrics)
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman and M.I.A.

Breakdown: How will this go? The Disney route? Then "Earth" wins. The celebrity route? The M.I.A. collaboration "O...Saya" takes it. The real best song? "The Wrestler" will...oh, wait. If they really give it to the best song nominated here, it'll be for "Jai Ho", but I'm betting on "Earth".

Best Foreign Language Film
Revanche (Austria)
The Class (France)
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
Departures (Japan)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

Breakdown: I liked inevitable winner Bashir. I'll be happy when it wins. It's a good movie. Not the best movie in this group, though. That honor goes to the French film. The Class is brilliant, beautiful, and absolutely incredible. But it's not Bashir, and this year, that's all that matters.

Next week's post will go over the last four categories. Then, one week from the big show, I'll post my picks for those 12 categories. I want everyone I tag to post their picks. Whomever beats me by the largest margin will get a prize (read: candy). The caveat is that you must BEAT me. Tying me is no good, and even if you beat me by a good margin, unless you're the #1, you won't win the big prize. All picks must be on the post entitled "Pick Yer Horse", that will be up on February 15th.

Good luck to everyone! Start researching Oscar blogs and get ready to place your bets!

I...am an Actor!

Not really. But the following 20 men and women do fancy themselves actors of the highest craft. And rightly so. They are this year's acting Oscar nominees.

In the weeks up to the Academy Awards ceremony, I'll be focusing on a specific area of nominations: this week acting, next week writing, the next producing/directing. I'll examine each race very closely and come up with my best judgment about the nominees' chances and who really should and will win.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Breakdown: Jenkins' real honor is to be nominated. Unfortunately, the guy didn't win at the SAG Awards, which was his best chance to win. Among not only actors, but producers, directors, writers, artists, etc., he won't be able to muster enough support to win. Langella started the season strong, but Rourke and Pitt have bogged him down. Pitt's nomination is more for the movie than for him. That leaves the two most likely candidates- Penn and Rourke. Rourke has the older vote, as well as the comeback vote. Penn has the youth vote and the Prop 8 vote. Simply because of the times, I'm betting on a Penn win. Who should win? Langella embodied the paranoia and disturbia of Richard Nixon. He deserves the trophy most of all.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Breakdown: What was said about Jenkins above applies to Leo here. Jolie, like her significant other, won't win because the nod is more for her movie. Streep, Winslet, and Hathway could all walk away with the gold on Oscar night. I'd prefer Streep to win it, because her performance was the most dynamic. The growing faction that LOVES Winslet is hoping she'll win because she's never won. Personally, I don't follow that line of thinking, but her performance is good enough to upset. Finally, there's the incredible breakout that is Hathaway. Her performance was career-redefining, and she deserves the Oscar, but she's going up against the best actresses in America. It would take a miracle.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Breakdown: Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Did I mention Ledger?

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Breakdown: The tightest race of the show, just like last year. Also just like last year, it breaks down to four serious competitors: Adams, Cruz, Davis, and Henson. Though Tomei is great, she's so overshadowed by Mickey Rourke she can't see the sunshine for anything. Davis is more deserving for Doubt than Adams is, but Adams' nomination wasn't even expected, so don't be surprised if she pulls a Tilda Swinton and takes this category. Henson is great in her role, but if the Oscars are going to reward a black actress this year, Davis is the more likely of the two. Cruz's Maria Elena is a slow burn throughout Barcelona, and she's great, but it's a comedic performance. In the Academy's eyes, that makes it easier. Davis might suffer from vote splitting with Adams, but I still see her as ultimately likelier.

Sorry, Clint. Too Bad, Kate.

OSCAR NODS ARE OFFICIALLY OUT!

And I didn't do too badly. I fared better than Kate Winslet and Clint Eastwood, at least. But more on them later. First, the scorecard.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

The Result: I got Jenkins right, but got Pitt wrong. Eastwood's snub was shocking to me, but unfortunately for the guy, it wasn't the last of his movie's snubs...

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

The Result: Winslet got punished for trying to campaign in different categories. She won't get a chance at winning for her stronger performance, April Wheeler in Revolutionary Road, because her Reader role shut it out. Hawkins lost out in favor of Leo, who is a vastly better choice.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

The Result: Poor Dev Patel got snubbed, but it's good to see Shannon here. Otherwise, no changes.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

The Result: Winslet's supporting campaign getting overruled led to an extra spot here, which, of course, went to Adams.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
The Reader, David Hare

The Result: Like I said, no surer list. My only 5-for-5.

Best Original Screenplay
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonaugh
WALL*E, Andrew Stanton

The Result: Whoops. My only true screw-up, I only managed to get one of the five right. Then again, there were more than a few come-from-nowhere nominations.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

The Result: Nolan's demeanor screwed him out of a nod, as I predicted it might. Daldry's inclusion seems to be only one part of what was a Reader comeback. Congratulations to him. He's still got no shot next to Boyle.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

The Result: I won't lie: I'm not happy that Button and Frost/Nixon both wormed their way into this category. However, The Dark Knight's exclusion meant good things for The Reader. And, like the directing category, it doesn't matter. All four will fall to Slumdog.

30 for 40. Not bad in the grand sceme of things. Still a C, but in Oscarology, that's really a passing grade. So what are my new predictions for the winners? I'm so glad I asked...

Best Actor
Should Win: Langella
Will Win: Rourke

Best Actress
Should Win: Hathaway
Will Win: Streep

Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Ledger
Will Win: Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Davis
Will Win: Cruz

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Beaufoy
Will Win: Beaufoy

Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Black
Will Win: Black

Best Director
Should Win: Boyle
Will Win: Boyle

Best Picture
Should Win: Slumdog
Will Win: Slumdog

This will be updated basically every week leading up to the Oscars on February 22nd. Now that the nominations are out, post your picks in the comments section! I'll even keep a running pool of people's picks, and determine the winner after the statues are handed out. The categories are Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture. Pick both a Should and Will Win for each; in other words, which do you believe is the best, and which do you believe will get the Oscar. Thanks for reading and posting, and keep watching for more AIWWAF OscarWatch posts!

Last Train to Oscarville

This is going to be my last Oscar Nominations post, meaning that no posts after this one will aim at predicting the nominees of the Oscars. All future Oscar posts are about predicting the WINNERS.

At least one reader pointed out to me that conceivably, things have not remained so static after the Golden Globes. Upon closer examination, I believe him correct. So, for the final time before the nominations are announced, here are my Oscar nominee predictions.

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Breakdown: Jenkins' inclusion is due to no clear fifth nominee (DiCaprio? Pitt?) and a surprisingly strong pre-Oscar awards showing. If his movie is too invisible for Oscar voters, however, watch Brad Pitt take that spot for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I do believe that Eastwood, Langella, Penn, and Rourke are guaranteed nominations.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Breakdown: Well, so much for Winslet failing to secure a nomination. Her surprise victories at the Globes will boost her here, but I hope that the more deserving Hathaway or Streep win the award. Hawkins, Jolie, Melissa Leo, and Kristin Scott Thomas could all fall in the last two slots, but personally, I'd love to see Kate Beckinsdale for Nothing But The Truth in one of those spots. Lord knows she deserves it more than Jolie.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Breakdown: Franco's out, Patel's back in, but it's all just a ridiculous game of cards at this point. Ledger's got this award sewn up, and anyone who is willing to hear any BS indicating otherwise needs to wake up and smell the Joker.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Breakdown: Well, so much for simplicity. The HFPA have made Winslet viable here again, but I really don't want her to win for such a substandard role. Give it to Cruz! Give it to Davis! Give it to Tomei! Even give it to the superbly weak Henson! BUT DON'T GIVE WINSLET THIS OSCAR! As far as nominations go, this might be the most secure category. Henson's pretty unsteady here, and she should worry about Amy Adams for Doubt or Vera Farmiga for Nothing But The Truth, but these five are the smartest bets.

Best Original Song
"The Wrestler", The Wrestler
"Barking at the Moon", Bolt
"Can I Have This Dance", High School Musical 3
"Gran Torino", Gran Torino
"Down to Earth", WALL*E

Breakdown: More competitive category than it usually is this year, even though the fear that High School Musical 3 songs could sweep the category is quelled. A new rule prohibits more than 2 songs from any one movie, in an attempt to stop what happened the last two years: three-way vote splitting from Enchanted and Dreamgirls. So HSM3 will probably only get one song in; the current, fun ballad "Can I Have This Dance" seems like a logical choice. "The Wrestler", "Down to Earth", and "Gran Torino" are all guaranteed in. Upsets could come from "Once in a Lifetime" (Cadillac Records), "I Thought I Lost You" (Bolt), and "I Want It All" (HSM3).

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
The Reader, David Hare

Breakdown: No surer list, really. Hare might get bumped off, but I doubt it.

Best Original Screenplay
Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Woody Allen
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Burn After Reading, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Rachel Getting Married, Jenny Lumet
Gran Torino, Nick Schenk

Breakdown: No less steady list. That, my friends, is the difference between Original and Adapted. Changeling, Happy-Go-Lucky, and WALL*E all could sneak onto this list, and the Coen brothers or Schenk could get bumped right off. I'm fairly confident in these five, but one word of warning: comedies are favored in this category. Right now I have three dramas to two comedies. If Happy-Go-Luckywriter Mike Leigh were to sneak in, as he is very likely to do, it'll probably be for Torino writer Schenk.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Breakdown: Van Sant's presence here irks me to no end, but what can I say? Pundits love the Milk. Nolan needs to watch his back for a more prestigious film to sweep in and take his nomination. His unappreciative, unworthy speeches for Ledger haven't been winning him points. Still, these five are about as certain as you can get in Oscarology.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Breakdown: Almost every Oscarologist has this list right now. It's widely being accepted as the final five. However, I think it stinks. For one thing, Button and Frost/Nixon have not won ONE critics' prize for Best Picture COMBINED. Meanwhile, Doubt, WALL*E, The Wrestler, and Revolutionary Road have picked up at least one EACH. Plus, I'm no fan of The Dark Knight's presence on this list. Slumdog Millionaire is the only movie that truly, wholly, 100% deserves its place here. And that's why it will win Best Picture. That's right. More than a month before showtime, before voting even takes place, I'm calling Slumdog as the Best Picture of the year.

I'll post a scorecard as well as winners' picks the day of the nominations announcements, the 22nd. Keep posted on all your AIWWAF updates as Oscar season progresses, and comment on either my Blogspot or my Facebook!

Deal with It, Cate Blanchett

I didn't fare too badly in my Golden Globe picks, going 10/16 in picking the winners either in the Should or Will Win categories. But this post isn't a scorecard for me. No, it's highlights from last night's show, as well as the big question: how does this affect the Oscars?

Ricky Gervais' Introduction
Give this man a show! Again! The Extras funnyman did exactly what he did at the Emmys last year: became the funniest presenter of the night. He riffed on Kate Winslet about her role on Extras ("Hey, Winslet! I told you! You do a Holocaust movie, win an award!"), swigging beer onstage, and telling the noisy movie stars to "Hush!". And Hugh Jackman is hosting the Oscars...why?

Hawkins' Horrendous Speech
It's a hard task to get so drunk you reach the stage of incoherent blather in the first 30 minutes of the show. Well done, then, Sally Hawkins. You've just killed your Oscar chances.

Winslet's First Win
I won't harp on the fact that Winslet should never have won for this substandard movie version of an incredible novel, and just be happy that she finally won after five nominations. But seriously, is she REALLY better than Viola Davis in Doubt or Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona?

They Gave Out TV Awards?
Could've fooled me. And, of course, when they did give out such awards, they went to big TV movies and miniseries. That is, until later...

Tracy Morgan. That is all.
Morgan's speech was easily the funniest part of the night. His deal with 30 Rock creator (and eventual Best Actress in a TV Comedy/Musical winner) Tina Fey that if Barack Obama became the President-elect, he would become the new face of the show allowed for Morgan's hysterics to come through. Major points for the random attack on Cate Blanchett.

That Guy Heath Ledger Finally Wins Something
Let this be known: I loved Ledger's performance in The Dark Knight. I think he was possibly the greatest actor of our generation. He deserves every award he gets. But am I really the only one who is over Nolan's half-assed acceptance speeches for Ledger and the faux-surprise of the audiences?

Farrell the Affable Irish Brogue
In both his presentation and acceptance last night, Colin Farrell was funny, affable, and appreciative. Plus, I love that he could actually make fun of his previous drug use, as opposed to the ever-irritating Mickey Rourke.

Speaking of Rourke...
I loved The Wrestler. Really, I did. But there is one reason and one reason ALONE that Penn did not win tonight: the HFPA is a group of sixty-something homophobes. Look for the Oscar to go to Penn, and for good reason. (Oh, and Darren Aronofsky? No one knows who you are. You're not bettering your now-developing image by flicking off the camera during Rourke's speech.)

Drinks Just Keep On Flowin' (Flowin')/Presenters Just Keep On Stumblin' (Stumblin')
I'll let you find the individual drunken fits, but my favorite goes to Emma Thompson and Dustin Hoffman, who were totally bombed and totally unfunny onstage during their presentation. They're real actors! They should know better.

Winslet's Second Win
So much for that Anne Hathaway website thing. Winslet's win here should have some effect on the Oscar race, but don't forget that the HFPA are totally in the tank for foreigners. The Oscars will be more likely to give it to Hathaway or Streep.

Rainn Wilson and Blake Lively
I don't know what's funnier: Wilson's one-liner ("Hello. We're TV actors.") or bloggers mistakenly calling Lively "Hayden Panettiere". Aheh.

OMGJOBROS.
I find it hilarious that A) the Jonas Brothers were given the Animated Feature trophy to give out, B) that on the red carpet, as they passed each other, Miley Cyrus and her mother wouldn't acknowledge the Brothers' existence, and C) that the oldest and most interesting brother, Kevin (I think, please don't hit me if I got that wrong), hasn't ditched the two douche bags formerly known as Nick and Joe (again, I think).

Mad Men Stars Get Beaten By HBO Vampire, Therapist
Well, at least it won Best Drama Series.

Oscar Frontrunners Come Up Empty Handed
Sorry, Frost/Nixon, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Doubt. We still love you despite your lack of Globes.

The Best Moments of the Night: The Slumdog and Rock Sweeps
Slumdog Millionaire goes 4 for 4. 30 Rock goes 3 for 3. You can't get much better than that.

So what effect does this have on the Oscar race? In all honesty, absolutely none. Winslet will probably win one of the two awards she did tonight, but she won't win both. Rourke will get soundly beaten by Penn. Ledger... well, he'll still win. And Slumdog Millionaire will win each category it won last night (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Score).

I will point out one possible longshot that now has a chance to get into the Best Picture race. As has been the case the past two years, a smaller, funny movie makes it into the big race (Little Miss Sunshine, Juno). If any movie will do it this year, it's the Golden Globe winner for Best Picture, Comedy/Musical: Vicky Cristina Barcelona. But perhaps it's only a pipe dream.

Regardless, nominations for the Oscars are ten days away. Keep watching Awkward is What We Aim For as well as my Facebook to see future Oscar coverage!

Golden Globe Predix

I don't blog about anything besides movie awards anymore... Oh, well.

The Golden Globes are this Sunday, and they will honor the best in film and television in 2008. Considered the predecessors to the Oscars, they are especially accurate in the acting categories. Not so much in the film categories. Last year, winner Atonement barely scraped a Best Picture nod at the Oscars. Still, the nominations match up fairly well, so without further ado (because there's much ado about Oscars), here are my 66th Annual Golden Globe predictions.

Film

Best Actor - Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Should Win: Langella
Will Win: Penn

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell - In Bruges
James Franco - Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey

Should Win: Bardem
Will Win: Hoffman

Best Actress - Drama
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Should Win: Hathaway
Will Win: Winslet

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey

Should Win: McDormand
Will Win: Hawkins

Best Director
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road

Should Win: Boyle
Will Win: Fincher

Best Film - Drama
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Slumdog
Will Win: Button

Best Film - Musical or Comedy
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Should Win: Barcelona
Will Win: Barcelona

Best Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth
Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
The Reader - David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy

Should Win: Shanley
Will Win: Morgan

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Cruise - Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Should Win: Ledger
Will Win: Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Should Win: Davis
Will Win: Cruz

Television

Best Actor - Drama Series
Gabriel Byrne - In Treatment
Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Hugh Laurie - House
Jonathan Rhys Meyers - The Tudors

Should Win: Laurie
Will Win: Hamm

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Steve Carell - The Office
Kevin Connolly - Entourage
David Duchovny - Californication
Tony Shalhoub - Monk

Should Win: Baldwin
Will Win: Duchovny

Best Actress - Drama Series
Sally Field - Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay - Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
January Jones - Mad Men
Anna Paquin - True Blood
Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer

Should Win: Jones
Will Win: Sedgwick

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy Series
Christina Applegate - Samantha Who?
America Ferrera - Ugly Betty
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Debra Messing - The Starter Wife
Mary-Louise Parker - Weeds

Should Win: Applegate
Will Win: Fey

Best Series - Drama
Dexter
House
In Treatment
Mad Men
True Blood

Should Win: Mad Men
Will Win: Mad Men

[edit]Best Series - Musical or Comedy
30 Rock
Californication
Entourage
The Office
Weeds

Should Win: 30 Rock
Will Win: 30 Rock

No Doubt About It

There’s never a reason to avoid a movie because of what bloggers say. Why? As a general rule, bloggers have the worst tastes a human being can possibly possess. (Witness: the Snakes on a Plane hysteria.)

This awards season, many movies are being released, then immediately skewered by bloggers. One such movie is Doubt, the play-turned-screen drama from John Patrick Shanley starring Meryl Streep, Amy Adams, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, and Viola Davis. The movie has done well with critics and awards alike, and is the leading contender at the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards, with 5 total nominations.

However, a number of bloggers who saw early screenings of the flick panned the film, its direction, and Streep’s performance. The negative buzz severely hampered Doubt’s early hype, and might’ve affected early box office performance.

After seeing Doubt yesterday, I can confirm that the movie is an absolute marvel. Streep bests any previous performance of hers save Sophie’s Choice, and should most certainly win the Oscar. Hoffman is a marvel to watch and is the perfect sparring partner for Streep. Davis, though only onscreen for 12 minutes, is a powerhouse. Adams is subtle but excellent. The direction is solid. The script is stellar. But the movie does lack a certain critical element: that oomph necessary to make it a serious Best Picture contender.

However, the movie is still stellar. It will likely get nominations in the Best Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay categories. This calls for some edits to my Oscar predictions.

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Breakdown: For now, Penn's frontrunner status is safe. He should be wary of Langella, though. As "Tricky Dick" Nixon, Langella is a wonder. Eastwood takes DiCaprio's spot, but really, both he and Pitt are nothing but placeholders.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Breakdown: With Winslet's major snubs racking up, and the movie's buzz faltering, it looks like a Hathaway/Streep race. Look now for Streep to take the honor.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Breakdown: I underestimated Thunder's appeal, and Downey looks like the man to take the nod for it. Franco and Brolin are stellar complements to Penn. But, as has been stated again and again, it's Ledger's race to lose.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Breakdown: I'm really getting interested in this race, because even though only two of the candidates have any shot at winning, they are both incredibly good. Davis' scene in Doubt is arguably the best scene in the movie. Her role is small, but she burns a hole in the screen. Will her short but oh-so-sweet time onscreen be enough to pull an upset over Cruz?

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Breakdown: I have a lot of confidence in Boyle now. Fincher's movie didn't get half the praising critiques it needed, and Nolan's masterpiece is feeling pretty neglected these days with no early awards. Boyle should watch out for Howard, but he should have an easy time getting the gold.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Breakdown: I'm not confident with Doubt's position on this list, but with Revolutionary Road out, something had to take its place. With The Dark Knight having fallen from grace, it was between Doubt and WALL*E for that final spot. However, it ultimately doesn't matter. Millionaire really has this sewn up.