Thursday, January 22, 2009

Sorry, Clint. Too Bad, Kate.


And I didn't do too badly. I fared better than Kate Winslet and Clint Eastwood, at least. But more on them later. First, the scorecard.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

The Result: I got Jenkins right, but got Pitt wrong. Eastwood's snub was shocking to me, but unfortunately for the guy, it wasn't the last of his movie's snubs...

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

The Result: Winslet got punished for trying to campaign in different categories. She won't get a chance at winning for her stronger performance, April Wheeler in Revolutionary Road, because her Reader role shut it out. Hawkins lost out in favor of Leo, who is a vastly better choice.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

The Result: Poor Dev Patel got snubbed, but it's good to see Shannon here. Otherwise, no changes.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

The Result: Winslet's supporting campaign getting overruled led to an extra spot here, which, of course, went to Adams.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
The Reader, David Hare

The Result: Like I said, no surer list. My only 5-for-5.

Best Original Screenplay
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonaugh
WALL*E, Andrew Stanton

The Result: Whoops. My only true screw-up, I only managed to get one of the five right. Then again, there were more than a few come-from-nowhere nominations.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

The Result: Nolan's demeanor screwed him out of a nod, as I predicted it might. Daldry's inclusion seems to be only one part of what was a Reader comeback. Congratulations to him. He's still got no shot next to Boyle.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

The Result: I won't lie: I'm not happy that Button and Frost/Nixon both wormed their way into this category. However, The Dark Knight's exclusion meant good things for The Reader. And, like the directing category, it doesn't matter. All four will fall to Slumdog.

30 for 40. Not bad in the grand sceme of things. Still a C, but in Oscarology, that's really a passing grade. So what are my new predictions for the winners? I'm so glad I asked...

Best Actor
Should Win: Langella
Will Win: Rourke

Best Actress
Should Win: Hathaway
Will Win: Streep

Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Ledger
Will Win: Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Davis
Will Win: Cruz

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Beaufoy
Will Win: Beaufoy

Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Black
Will Win: Black

Best Director
Should Win: Boyle
Will Win: Boyle

Best Picture
Should Win: Slumdog
Will Win: Slumdog

This will be updated basically every week leading up to the Oscars on February 22nd. Now that the nominations are out, post your picks in the comments section! I'll even keep a running pool of people's picks, and determine the winner after the statues are handed out. The categories are Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture. Pick both a Should and Will Win for each; in other words, which do you believe is the best, and which do you believe will get the Oscar. Thanks for reading and posting, and keep watching for more AIWWAF OscarWatch posts!

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