Writers, Directors, Writer/Directors

Here's some absolutely not shocking news for anyone who knows me/follows this blog: I hate the Best Director and Best Screenplay races, albeit for very disparate reasons. As a writer, I'm offended at the level of hero worship that goes on for directors. (Seriously, do you think they just make it all up on the spot? The writers and actors have just as much, if not more, to do with the brilliance of the movie!) As an Oscarologist, I don't like the screenplay races because they almost never go the way they're supposed to. (Those crazy writers always sink my prediction score!)

Still, my job is never done until I've examined all eight top races, so here I go, trying to analyze these tricky races. I actually like several of the directors this year (though James Cameron will never be my cup of tea, and I'm really starting to hate Jason Reitman), and a few of the screenplays are truly enjoyable, so maybe this won't be as much of a pain in the ass as it usually is.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker 75%
James Cameron, Avatar 15%
Lee Daniels, Precious 1.9%
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air .1%
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds 8%

As far as who deserves to be here, Bigelow is the one who is, absolutely no question, deserving of her nomination and her likely win. I'd throw Tarantino into her company, though still several tiers behind our frontrunner. However, they both have a similar problem, which I'd like to delve into briefly before continuing.

It's something I just can't get past for either: the extended, nonsensical, far-too-long-for-its-own-good scene that inhabits the halfway point of the movie. For Tarantino, it's the bar scene. For Bigelow, it's the scene with Ralph Fiennes. I can understand why Tarantino used the bar scene: he loves his ridiculous violence. But whereas all the other violence seemed so well incorporated into the story, this scene, which didn't really advance the plot all that much (though if you argue that it did advance the plot, it could have been done in 4 minutes, not 25), seems just out-of-place. I have a feeling that to get some extra money for budget, Bigelow included the Fiennes scene. The beauty of The Hurt Locker is that it has no plot, but this just didn't flow with the rest of the movie.

I respect what Cameron did in Avatar, and to be fair, he probably does deserve to be here, but I really don't respect how litle emphasis he puts on writing and, to a lesser extent, acting. He's the posterboy for why I don't like this category.

I loved Daniels' movie, and sometimes, we forget that incredible performances are in part due to the director's vision. There's a reason Mo'Nique thanks Daniels constantly when she makes acceptance speeches: he really did a phenomenal job with Precious when it was an incredibly difficult movie to pull off. Still, his directorial effort isn't comparable to any of the above, although I do appreciate the focus he puts on the writing and the acting.

Reitman has had an incredible streak of good movies, with Thank You For Smoking, Juno, and now Up in the Air. He may be the best director for contemporary, "of the moment" movies, but one has to wonder: how will they hold up in the future? And is his hand really that heavy, or has he simply gotten lucky?

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker 35%
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds 45%
Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger 5%
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man 5%
Tom McCarthy, Bob Peterson, & Pete Docter, Up 10%

I love the Basterds and Locker screenplays, but I feel like Tarantino can't lose here. The other three are really there just to be nominated, which is a shame, because there were a few scripts that I would have preferred in those spots. But can I just say how much I really detested Up? I hate that this is the second animated movie nominated for Best Picture. It just really, really wasn't my cup of tea, and I think the underwhelming script had more than a little to do with that.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9 2%
Nick Hornby, An Education 8%
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Ianucci, & Tony Roche, In The Loop 3%
Damien Paul, Precious 30%
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air 55%

How badly do I want to see In The Loop? Let me count the ways... Unfortunately, despite how great Paul and Hornby's scripts were, this is Up in the Air's to lose...and it just might, if Reitman and Turner can't get their shit together. They still don't seem to know each other when they give acceptance speeches together, and that's because this was an arbitrated credit, meaning the Writers' Guild of America decided they both deserved credit despite the fact that they didn't actually write the script together. (The Envelope at the Los Angeles Times has a really great article about this if you want to read more; I personally find it all a little ridiculous.) If they can't, or if they wind up splitting votes with supposed runner-up Paul, Hornby might benefit, or Paul might worm his way into the winners' circle over both the dysfunctional Air guys and Hornby's expert script. I'd say this is actually the harder-to-predict category over BOS, which is not what most seem to think is the case. Call me crazy.

...Nope, that was just as much of a pain in the ass as it always is. Any thoughts, folks? Am I crazy for not caring about, well, any of this? Am I just an actor worshipper? Take it to the comments!

Why Haven't I Made It Work This Season?

All right, boys and girls, I've been bad, and now I've got some 'splaning to do.

The Season to Date: Project Runway is In Again

Why haven't I blogged about any of the first five episodes this season of Project Runway? Well...



...it's complicated. (Sorry. Had to go for it.)

I've been ridiculously busy with Oscar blogging this season, which has kept me from really devoting any time to PR this season. Not only that, but I've had (more or less) a drama tournament every weekend that the show has been on, cutting into analysis/blogging time. I also had Kairos, which put me a week behind for a while, and I've only just caught up.

Not only that, though, but last season was so bad that I've found myself being prejudiced against this season, and actually rather unfairly. This season has proven itself to be both fresh and interesting. I really like the designers, and I think the top six or so (in my opinion, that is) are really some of the best the show's ever seen.

In preparation for tonight's episode, I'll briefly recap my feelings on the designers and the challenges so far. Contestants are ranked in order of likelihood to win from what I've seen so far.

Mila Hermanovski
She's a bitch, yes, but damn if her clothes aren't fine! Seriously, I get real "she could be HUGE" vibes from this woman, for so many reasons. First, she's just a fashionable woman all around. She always looks as good as her product does. Second, when I see a Mila Hermanovski go down the runway, I instantly recognize that it's hers. Third, she's got nerves of steel, which will be vital for a fashion career. Finally, picture this: "Who are you wearing, Sienna Miller?" "Oh, this is Mila Hermanovski." Sounds right, doesn't it?

Jay Nicolas Sario
I personally don't like Jay that much. I don't think his dress that won should have won, and his other high-scoring outfit was far more Maya's aesthetic than his. He's not that impressive, in my opinion. Still, the judges love him, and you can't argue wiht that. And, to be fair, he would have wiped the floor with last season's motley crew.

Emilio Sosa
He's a trash talker, yes, but Mila's a bitch, Jay's a little pixie, Amy and Ben need their audio cranked up, Anthony needs his audio cranked down, Maya needs a happy pill, and all the others are just kinda boring, so we have to live with their shortcomings. Plus, he's produced some great dresses, even if he could use a better editing eye. Regardless, so far, I like him. He could go the distance.

Amy Sarabi
Amy seems super cool, young, fun, and talented. So why isn't she confident? She produced my favorite garment of the season (her burlap sack look), and a few more that I've really liked. She needs to get rid of that whole "weird things on the bust" bender she's on, because overall, her looks are top-notch. Best stuff of the season. A few more showstoppers and she'll top this list.

Maya Luz
It's Kenley 2.0! But talented and less bitchy! I kinda love what Maya's been producing this season, but for some reason, I can't really get invested in her. Not in the way I can Amy, Mila, or Emilio, anyway.

Ben Chmura
For a contestant who's so quiet, I really like ol' Ben. He's got a quiet subtlety that I really like, and the fashion industry needs more designers like him. Now, he doesn't have a chance in hell of winning this thing, but still.

Jonathan Peters
I feel like Jonathan is a "personality" that simply hasn't been allowed to show his true colors yet. Even more than that, I don't really like any of the stuff he's done so far this season. He's kind of a cliché of what a Runway contestant should be like. And like my AP English Literature teacher, I don't like clichés.

Seth Aaron Henderson
Speaking of cliché... didn't we have this guy four seasons ago? Wasn't his name Jeffrey Sebelia? Didn't I hate him the first time? ...Yep, nothing's changed. Still hate him.

Anthony Williams
I want to love Anthony. I really do. He's fun, he's a kick in the pants, and the fashion industry doesn't have enough high-profil black designers. And I am proud of him for triumphing last week and getting the cover of Marie Claire magazine as his reward. But I just don't think he has "it." And you gotta have "it" for this business.

Jesse LeNoir
A few words: Jerk. Ass. Talentless. Copycat of Logan Nietzel from last season, who was himself a copy of countless Designated Straight Males. This one's no different: no chance at winning, not very entertaining along the way.

Janeane Marie Ceccanti
...we won't even discuss this one.

The Eliminated Contestants
I don't cry for any of the eliminated contestants--I would have sent each and every one home, too. Though I am a little sad we didn't see more from Christiane King. She was from Cote D'Ivoire, so I thought she might be cool. But overall, the eliminated deserve to be so.

EPISODE 1
My Win: Emilio Sosa
My Auf: Jesus Estrada

EPISODE 2
My Win: Amy Sarabi
My Auf: Ping Wu

EPISODE 3
My Win: Maya Luz
My Auf: Ping Wu

EPISODE 4
My Win: Amy Sarabi
My Auf: Jesus Estrada

EPISODE 5
My Win: Ben Chmura
My Auf: Janeane Marie Ceccanti

I'm still not completely on-board with this season, and I'll probably be very erratic in my blogging until Oscar season is over, because that's my focus. But what do you think? Any thoughts? Take it to the comments!

Act Your Way Out of This Paper Bag

Each year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences bestows acting nominations on a select 20 performances (and usually 20 individuals, though double nominations in one year in both lead and supporting aren't unheard of) that make up the "class" of that year. Last year's class was filled with mostly older, veteran actors (Meryl Streep, Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke, and Viola Davis immediately spring to mind), and the class before that was all over the place (as young as Saoirse Ronan and as old as Ruby Dee; as foreign as Marion Cotillard and as homegrown as Tommy Lee Jones).

This year's class is surprisingly diverse, from former winners (Penelope Cruz, Helen Mirren) to young ingenues (Anna Kendrick, Carey Mulligan) to longtime favorites of the Academy (Streep, Jeff Bridges) to theater vets breaking through (Jeremy Renner) to long-respected actors finally nabbing a nomination (Christopher Plummer, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Colin Firth). On the other hand, it has a tendency to skew towards 'boring,' with nominees who can do their performances in their sleep (Morgan Freeman, George Clooney, Matt Damon) to actors who served as nothing more than distractions in their films (Stanley Tucci, Vera Farmiga). 12 of the 20 are first-time nominees, including Kendrick, Renner, Mulligan, Tucci, and Farmiga, as well as Plummer, Gyllenhaal, Firth. The other four first-time nominees are surefire winners Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique in the supporting categories, Hollywood favorite Sandra Bullock, and Precious star Gabourey Sidibe. (The last nominee is Woody Harrelson, who I couldn't seem to find a box for him to fit into.)

Still, with the precursors all having had their say (overwhelmingly for Waltz and Mo'Nique, the majority for Bridges, and splitting between Bullock, Streep, and, to a certain extent, Mulligan for the Best Actress prize), this whole race feels very decided. Moving the Oscars back to early March instead of mid-February has had some unintentional effects, and for actors like Kendrick, Harrelson, and Clooney, it must be difficult to know they'll lose once again come Oscar night.

However, there is one thing that might sway what our memories are of this year: the return of the "surprise." Last year had approximately zero surprise winners in the acting races; after all, Heath Ledger was never going to lose, everyone was obsessed with Kate Winslet finally winning despite how underwhelming the performance was, Penelope Cruz was the frontrunner for weeks, despite sudden momentum for Viola Davis, and Mickey Rourke losing to Sean Penn really wasn't surprising, no matter what so many thought.

Hopefully, this year will yield a few surprises. What follows is my analysis of exactly how likely each contender's chance at the win is. Percentages are based on my wildly unscientific method known as "Absolute Guesses."

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart 50%
George Clooney, Up in the Air 15%
Colin Firth, A Single Man 8%
Morgan Freeman, Invictus 2%
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker 25%

Oddsmakers seem to want to make this race as locked as Best Supporting Actor or Best Supporting Actress, but I just don't see it the same way. Yes, sentiment is definitely with Bridges, and his opponents' inability to agree on either Clooney or Firth left him without a strong adversary in the race. I'd say he has a far better chance of winning than any of his competitors.

BUT: What to make of Renner? Yes, he was probably in fifth place for the nomination, but as far as the win is concerned, I'd say he has a much better chance. He's not an older veteran, as all four of the other actors are (Clooney and Firth kinda cancel each other out, and if Freeman hadn't phoned in his Invictus performance, he and Bridges would cancel each other out as well), and he's also in a movie that has a ton of goodwill right now, so I say if anyone will upset, it's gonna be him.

Clooney organized that Haiti telethon that raised over $60 million, which brands him as Hollywood's Chief Liberal Activist. This can be a positive thing for Oscar (Sean Penn's a double winner, after all), and a bad thing (they snubbed Penn for Best Director of Into the Wild in favor of Jason Reitman for Juno--yikes!). If this were a different year, if it felt like Clooney actually cared about this award, and if he hadn't won for Syriana in 2006, this would be a different story. But he really didn't have a chance two years ago for Michael Clayton, and he still doesn't have much of a chance now.

Firth gave a great performance, and he is easily my winner in this category (though I loved Renner and enjoyed Bridges as well), but for some reason, the buzz never materialized, so his chances are slim to none, and Slim just left town. He should be back in this race soon enough, but this is the performance of his career for now.

Freeman's performance is the stinker here. (Every race has to have a stinker, like Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt's performances last year.) It's nominated because it sounds prestigious and there wasn't a great fifth option. I haven't heard of one person who is super excited about this performance. Then again, the movie was a stinker, too, so maybe it isn't that much of a surprise that Freeman (and Damon) are the fifth-place finishers in their categories.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side 40%
Helen Mirren, The Last Station 5%
Carey Mulligan, An Education 10%
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious 15%
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia 30%

I guess that Bullock has the best chance here: she does have the buzz going in, after all. But let's be real here, folks: Bullock's portrayal of Leigh Anne Tuhoy was fun and is considered by many to be her best film performance to date, but it is not better than the brilliant performances from Mulligan, Sidibe, and Streep.

Tangent: I vehemently disagree with this idea that The Blind Side is Bullock's best work: watch Crash to see her at her absolute best. If she had won for that movie, I wouldn't have any problem. And that's something I really hate about the Oscars: it seems as though it's all a time-release system. Last year, it was deemed that Kate Winslet "deserved" to finally win an Oscar, so she won for The Reader, arguably the worst of her six Oscar-nominated performances. (I would have given her the Oscar for Titanic, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, or Little Children instead.) Bridges is getting a lot of the same buzz this year, though I actually think he's deserving for Crazy Heart. But Oscars should award the performance, not the career, and most certainly not the buzz. Bullock is campaigning on both. But it's truly not fair that she's got a great shot at winning for this. Tangent over.

Streep has a lot of fans in the Academy (they've nominated her 16 times; of course she has fans), and they're ravenous for Streep to finally receive her third Oscar after 28 years (but the momentum's really been building since The Devil Wears Prada, to be quite frank). They couldn't come through in the clutch last year, but her Doubt performance was hardly iconic and Winslet-mania had reached a fever pitch. Since there's been time for Bullock's buzz to cool, the voters might actually care about the performance and vote on that.

Then again, if they're voting on the performance, we might see a Sidibe win come March 7. She truly delivered the most raw, emotional performance of the year, and trust me: she's not just playing herself. If Streep and Bullock wind up splitting votes for veteran actors, a Sidibe win could happen. It won't, but it could!

Mulligan is the true victim of awards season. She just seemed so unprepared for everything, and to be frank, I like her character in An Education a lot more than I like her. She seems so weak and Keira Knightley-esque, not the confident, cute, interesting character she plays. I guess not every actor is like their character, but I'd expect her to be a thousand times more interesting than she actually is. I probably wouldn't give her the award either.

Mirren is this category's stinker. She didn't do much for the movie, and when you compare this performance to something like The Queen: damn. Step down much? She literally has absolutely no chance at the win. No qualifier necessary.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus 1%
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger 15%
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station 7%
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones 2%
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds 75%

In my mind, no one can beat Waltz here. I was tempted to just put him at 100% and let the others languish at 0%, but there's no such thing as an absolute lock. True, Harrelson could use his connections in the industry to pull out a stunning surprise win; after all, Waltz has few friends in the industry. But Waltz has missed exactly one precursor award (the National Board of Review award, to Harrelson), and that particular organization is looking like it will be batting .000 come Oscar time. Plummer should be honored to finally be nominated at age 80 after an illustrious film career, but Hal Holbrook couldn't beat another unstoppable villainous character, Javier Bardem, two years ago with the same "generation" campaign, and his performance was actually good! Not only that, but this category seems to have become the "you evil man!" award (Bardem, Heath Ledger, and now Waltz). Tucci could win on that theory, if his performance was any good, which it, uh, wasn't. And Damon is the stinker here: it's cool that he finally got nominated again after Good Will Hunting, but his nice-guy rugby captain just never caught fire with any precursor voting bodies. It's Waltz's to lose, and he won't.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine 1%
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air 1%
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart 3%
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air 5%
Mo'Nique, Precious 90%

If Waltz's win is locked, Mo'Nique's is stored in a fireproof, bulletproof vault in the best military fort money can buy. Again, yes, it is quite possible that a surprise winner could come out of nowhere. After all, I'm placing bets in the lead acting categories that there could be surprises. But here's the thing: the lead acting nominees are actually good. The supporting nominees, besides the inevitable winners? Not so much. Kendrick would have more of a chance if Farmiga weren't also nominated, but as it is, they'll vote-split. Cruz is the stinker of the category: I personally love her, but this wasn't even close to her best performance. Blame major accounts of category confusion for her nomination. And Gyllenhaal? She's done better work (Sherrybaby) and more high-profile work (The Dark Knight), so we'll chalk up her nomination to goodwill with voters and a family connection to previous nominee Jake Gyllenhaal.

I can't see any possible combinations of winners on Oscar night besides the following four:

1) Bridges/Bullock/Waltz/Mo'Nique
2) Bridges/Streep/Waltz/Mo'Nique
3) Renner/Streep/Waltz/Mo'Nique
4) Renner/Sidibe/Waltz/Mo'Nique

No matter what, the two supporting acting frontrunners will win. If Renner wins, Bullock won't: obviously, the Academy was feeling contrarian, and they won't follow Bullock's buzz. If Sidibe wins, Bridges won't for the very same reason as above. I'd say that if they're going with popular opinion, it will be group 1 for the win. If they want to honor the elder statesmen (and women), they'lll go with group 2. If they're feeling a little contrarian, they'll go with group 3. And if they're feeling very contrarian, it'll be group 4. If they're feeling even more contrarian than that, well, then we might just see Freeman/Mirren/Damon/Cruz. And I would laugh.

This will either be known as the year everyone knew who would win before the nominations were even announced or the year no one knew what was coming until the envelopes were opened. My ideal grouping would be Firth/Streep/Waltz/Mo'Nique, but out of the four above, I would pick group 3. Since it's not likely to happen, I'm hoping that group 2 is our real list of winners. What about you? Which of the four above groups would you like to see win on Oscar night? Which group do you think will win on Oscar night? Or would you have a whole other grouping altogether? Take it to the comments!

Next week, I'm breaking down the Screenplay and Director races, then the next week is Picture and my final predictions before showtime in all 24 categories, along with your chance to play along and beat my predictions!

What's on the Edge of Kenyon's Map?

If you applied to Kenyon College, you know that you had to write an essay following a truly ridiculous prompt, a few examples of which are listed below:

Neuroscientists have recently discovered the part of the brain most active in decision-making. What human trait would you most want to understand and what makes it significant to you?

You’re given a block of stone and a hammer and chisel. What would you carve and why?

Along the edge of ancient maps it used to say ‘Here there be monsters.’ What does it say at the edge of your map and why does it say that?

What recent discovery – either by you or by someone else – most excites you? Why is it important to you?

Though these prompts are hilarious enough on their own, I decided (after making the command decision NOT to apply to Kenyon) to craft my own “Kenyon essay prompts.” These are meant only to poke fun at how ridiculous Kenyon really is. Enjoy.

I danced in the hallway next to the water fountain. What does that mean to you, and why?

Kanye West interrupted Taylor Swift’s acceptance speech at last year’s MTV Video Music Awards. Who is interrupting your acceptance speech, and for what video would you be accepting the award?

Tupac was actually killed in a strange double homicide with John Lennon by Paul McCartney. What time did the homicide happen, and how can we blame Yoko Ono? Or George W. Bush? Hitler? Show your work.

Prove that the square root of 4 is ‘rainbows.’ What does it mean to you? What does it mean to me? What did it mean to your mother last night?

Pikachu, I choose you. How does that make you feel?

Sandra Bullock is likely going to win an Oscar next month over renowned thespian Meryl Streep. This implies that Sandra Bullock is a better actress than Meryl Streep. Is the world ending? Limit to 5 words.

You are sitting in a field of roses with an extinct breed of polar bear. What movie would you be watching, and what candy would you pay too much for at the concession stand?

Add your own in the comments!

Snap Judgment of My Snap Judgment

I'm back from Kairos, and I'm reevaluating my snap-judgments before I left. Overall, this year's nominees are pretty satisfying, with some especially so (An Education hung in there!) and not so (THE BLIND SIDE?!?!?!?!). Below, the breakdown in full:

Best Picture
Avatar CORRECT
The Blind Side WRONG
District 9 CORRECT
An Education CORRECT
The Hurt Locker CORRECT
Inglourious Basterds CORRECT
Precious CORRECT
A Serious Man WRONG
Up CORRECT
Up in the Air CORRECT

(8/10)


Avatarwas going to be nominated, obviously, but I have serious doubts about its ability to win. Actors really don't like it, because they see it as representative of a future where they as actors aren't as necessary. Morgan Freeman has even called it "basically a cartoon," which undoubtedly pissed-off James Cameron. As a writer, it similarly offends me. Here's a fun fact for you, though: the last time a Best Picture nominee won without a single nomination in a writing or acting category was almost 80 years ago. Maybe this isn't that much of a two-horse race. Maybe The Hurt Locker is the clear frontrunner, and Avatar is just one of four films angling for an upset.

So... Who else is a little angry about this whole The Blind Side thing? Don't worry: you're not alone. We can heal together. Not that any other choice was that great; I don't fault the Academy members who couldn't come up with ten nominees. But The Blind Side?! My primary problem is that Blind seems more like a TV movie than a real movie, which is a bit unfair towards TV movies. I would take the poignant, touching Grey Gardens over this warmed-over Hallmark Movie Channel flick any day of the week.

I haven't seen District 9 yet, but I've heard that this one might be a touch overrated. Still, it's gonna help sink Avatar's chances (two sci-fi pictures in the big race is not better than one for James Cameron), so I'm all for it!

An Education is the prestigious-looking flick in this race; too bad this is a year when prestige doesn't matter too much. Normally, I'd say it had a tremendous shot at the top prize, but this beautiful, funny British pick will, unfortunately, be relegated to the second tier. One piece of advice, though: An Education just expanded its theater count, so there is absolutely no reason not to go see it. Carey Mulligan is truly a revelation, and the movie is, on the whole, better than most of last year.

The Hurt Locker came out of nowhere in getting 9 total nominations, tying Avatar and making this Best Picture race a total Battle of the Exes. I just wish the exes hated each other. Wouldn't that be so much more fun? I'd say right now that this is Locker's race to lose, but there's a whole host of things that could happen: will there be vote splitting between the two biggest flicks? Is Inglourious Basterds primed for an upset? What if Precious or Up in the Air regain their earlier momentum? We've got a month before showtime in which a whole lot can happen.

Speaking of the Basterds... With 8 nominations (high but not superb), including a high profile Best Supporting Actor nomination, and a Screen Actors Guild Best Ensemble Cast award, you know what Quentin Tarantino's movie is starting to remind me of? Crash. If actors are feeling really self-important this year, I'd say we might see an upset the likes of the Brokeback Mountain-destroyer from five years ago. I'm really thinking this movie could upset. Not über-confident in that theory, but still...

Precious is the best movie that isn't getting the awards it deserves. Seriously, this thing would have eviscerated the competition last year (then again, most of the movies here, even the second-tier ones, would have destroyed last year's ridiculously bad Best Picture nominees). I'm thrilled Mo'Nique is getting the recognition she so deserves (again, it's the best performance I've seen in years), but this movie is so phenomenal. Here's the good news: with an Oscar editing nomination, a SAG Best Cast nomination, and an Oscar directing nomination, along with the nice-to-have double acting nominations and writing nomination, this movie has all the elements necessary to win. Still, without that crucial SAG win, I'd say we shouldn't expect an upset, but then again, I'd say that with Basterds, it is the most likely to upset. (Similar to Education, this movie has re-expanded into more theaters, so you owe it to yourself to go see it.)

A Serious Man is the wrong Man: Tom Ford's A Single Man was a million times better than the Coen Brothers' Jewish-centric flick. And that's why it is honored just to be nominated.

Up is only the second animated film to be nominated for Best Picture. Cool? Yes. Is it the right movie? Not a chance in hell. It'll win Best Animated Feature and Best Original Score, nothing more.

Oh, Up in the Air. What happened? You've lost too many opportunities, my friend, including an Oscar editing nomination, a SAG Best Cast nomination, among others. That was the final nail in your coffin, and you're so close to being second-tier. And that's sad, because you truly are a phenomenal film.

If I had to rank their chances now, this is how the nominees would break down:

1) The Hurt Locker
2) Avatar
3) Inglourious Basterds
4) Precious
5) Up in the Air
6) An Education
7) District 9
8) The Blind Side
9) Up
10) A Serious Man


Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart CORRECT
George Clooney, Up in the Air CORRECT
Colin Firth, A Single Man CORRECT
Morgan Freeman, Invictus CORRECT
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker CORRECT

(5/5)

Ding! Got all those right. On a side note, I just saw Crazy Heart, and Jeff Bridges totally deserves the Oscar he's going to win. Bridges, Renner, and Firth were all so phenomenal. I'd rank Bridges and Renner as the leaders of the pack (I know Renner was riding the bottom of the nomination list, but then again, that was for a nomination, and winning is a whole different game), with Freeman at the bottom.

1) Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
2) Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
3) George Clooney, Up in the Air
4) Colin Firth, A Single Man
5) Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side CORRECT
Helen Mirren, The Last Station CORRECT
Carey Mulligan, An Education CORRECT
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious CORRECT
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia CORRECT

(5/5)

Ding-ding! I love going 5-for-5, and the last-minute switch off of Emily Blunt paid off! If Bullock and Streep wind up splitting the veteran vote, I think Sidibe could steal. It all depends on how Precious plays with the Academy.

1) Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
2) Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
3) Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
4) Carey Mulligan, An Education
5) Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus CORRECT
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger CORRECT
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station INCORRECT
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones CORRECT
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds CORRECT

(4/5)

Whoops! I knew the switch from Plummer to Alfred Molina would bite me in the ass. I just didn't think Plummer had enough of a following in the Academy, but who knows what those old curmudgeons like anymore? I guess he could get the generational vote, but I doubt it. This one is Waltz's.

1) Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
2) Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
3) Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
4) Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
5) Matt Damon, Invictus

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine CORRECT
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air CORRECT
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart INCORRECT
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air CORRECT
Mo'Nique, Precious CORRECT

(4/5)

No one saw that Gyllenhaal nomination coming, so I don't feel too bad about missing it. I'm actually pretty proud of calling Cruz: I knew the Academy couldn't resist her. She's been nominated three times in four years. That's pretty freaking cool. You know who else has that exact same percentage? Meryl Streep. You know who else is the only repeat nominee from last year? Meryl Streep. You know who got a nomination every single time Cruz did? Meryl Streep. They must see each other a lot. I wonder if they text about boys and meet for brunch on the weekends like BFFs do.

1) Mo'Nique, Precious
2) Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
3) Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
4) Penelope Cruz, Nine
5) Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker CORRECT
James Cameron, Avatar CORRECT
Lee Daniels, Precious CORRECT
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air CORRECT
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds CORRECT

(5/5)

"That's a bingo!" A black man and a woman: is this really the category that has only seen either of the identifications four times TOTAL in its history? Pretty freaking cool. The rankings reflect the directors' films in the Best Picture race, and that isn't a coincidence.

1) Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
2) James Cameron, Avatar
3) Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
4) Lee Daniels, Precious
5) Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker CORRECT
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds CORRECT
Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger INCORRECT
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man CORRECT
Bob Peterson, Up CORRECT

(4/5)

Not bad for Best Original Screenplay. The Messenger was a bit of a shock for everyone. Didn't see that one coming.

1) Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
2) Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
3) Bob Peterson, Up
4) Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
5) Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger

Best Adapted Screenplay
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9 INCORRECT
Nick Hornby, An Education CORRECT
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Ianucci, & Tony Roche, In The Loop INCORRECT
Damien Paul, Precious CORRECT
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air CORRECT

(3/5)

Aaaaannnnd... boom. This was my weakest category. Kind of a total swap from last year.

1) Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
2) Damien Paul, Precious
3) Nick Hornby, An Education
4) Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Ianucci, & Tony Roche, In The Loop
5) Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9

What do you guys think of the nominees? What are your picks for the winners? My score was 38/45: not too bad! Post your comments!

The State of the Race

I'm a little disappointed at how pat this Oscar race has become.

Not the Best Picture category, mind you: the 10 nominees might become one of the best ideas the Academy has ever come up with not because it will give us 10 worthy contenders, but because the top 5 (The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air) include some movies that might not have made it into the big race normally, but are each truly incredible films on their own merits.

I'm not even really referring to the Best Actress race, despite my distaste for Sandra Bullock's now-rallying performance in The Blind Side, simply because there's enough tension there that we could see a strange suprise win. But all the other races just feel a little snoozy.

However, I keep forgetting that we haven't even heard the nominations yet, so this post is focused solely on that. In case you've forgotten, picks are ordered in likelihood of nomination.

Best Picture
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air
Precious
An Education
Up
District 9
Invictus
Nine

Surprised to see Nine back again? So am I. Trust me, it's not a prediction that's easy to make, but I do know this: Chicago swept the Oscars with Harvey Weinstein running the campaign, and while Chicago was actually a good movie, in a year that's so hard to find ten nominees for, I think Nine could just be default enough to sneak on.

You might be wondering, then, why I removed A Serious Man instead of Invictus. While buzz for neither movie is burning brightly, I've never quite bought Man as an awards contender, and so far, it has proven itself to be anything but an awards contender. So I removed it, because inspiring Eastwood trumps silly Coens.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

This list is set. I don't see any other real possibilites.

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Mirren still feels vulnerable to me. If she hadn't shown such default status throughout the precursors, I would think there was a solid fifth option, but to me, this list seems pretty clear-cut. One possible spoiler? Marion Cotillard's category fraud is blatant, but the Academy has bought worse. She's the best part of a bad movie, and the Academy does love Rob Marshall's work, so maybe she makes it in. I don't think so, though.

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Matt Damon, Invictus
Alfred Molina, An Education

I know it's crazy to remove Christopher Plummer for Molina. I know this, and yet I do it anyway. In fact, other than Woody Harrelson and Christoph Waltz, I'd say none of these performances are sure things. But I do know that Molina had the early momentum, and the Academy seemingly doesn't like Plummer, so I'm going with my gut. Which will especially hurt Tuesday morning when they nominate Plummer.

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Penelope Cruz, Nine

I'm tempted to remove Penelope Cruz, since her movie has fallen by the wayside, but in all honesty, she hasn't missed one list, except for BAFTA, but then again, only the top three on this list made the BAFTA list. Moore feels vulnerable, too. I guess Diane Kruger or Melanie Laurent could sneak on this list for Inglourious Basterds, but Laurent's category confusion is killer, and Kruger honestly didn't do much for me as Bridget Von Hammersmark. I think this list is about as close as I'll get.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious

I still can't help but feel that someone is gonna fall to Clint Eastwood. Daniels, maybe? Or Reitman? Probably not Reitman; they love him. Tarantino's pretty controversial, but his movie was really astounding. I feel he's safe. Maybe they all make it in. I'm just not sure: this race seems so unsettled while still being set.

Best Original Screenplay
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Bob Peterson, Up
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man

I've hemmed and hawwed over these scripts for a while now, and no more deliberation is going to change how poorly I'll fare on nomination morning. One note, though: Tarantino should be very worried about getting snubbed by the Writers Guild of America, because that award comes on February 20, right in the middle of Oscar voting. He could easily lose this to Boal because of that slip.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Damien Paul, Precious
Nick Hornby, An Education
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Tom Ford, A Single Man

Reitman and Turner are nominated for, but should be very worried they won't win, the WGA. There's been a whole storm of controversy about the script and if Reitman doesn't deserve the credit he's getting, meaning Paul could sneak in there and win this one, which would give the win to Precious on Oscar night. The WGA is going to be incredibly influential this year, and no one yet realizes it.

I'm already confident in who will win this year, so that only makes the nominations that more infuriating to discuss. I feel fairly safe with these 45 nominees, but I feel like my score could be as high as 45 and as low as 35. What do you guys think? Any particular weaknesses you can see? Care to try to beat my predictions? Try it in the comments!

"Bob SAGet!"

Okay, now you can panic.

If this post sounds more than a little vent-y, my sincere apologies, but the fact that the SAG Awards last night really indicated that Sandra "Miss Congeniality" Bullock is a better actress than Meryl "Soon-to-Be 16 Oscar Nominations" Streep is mind-numbing to me. What movies were voters watching? Yes, I understand that it's hard to accept Streep is doing her best work because she's done so much great work, but that's hardly a reason to snub her; rather, it's a reason to celebrate her!

I'll give you that I found Sandra Bullock charming in The Blind Side, and I love that she had such an incredible year, but this is not an Oscar-worthy performance. Not over the likes of Precious' mind-blowingly good Gabourey Sidibe, or the charming, absolutely worthy Carey Mulligan from An Education, and certainly not over Meryl Streep.

So what's the state of the Best Actress race? Will Bullock really walk away with Hollywood's highest honor over the above-mentioned ladies? Have voters become so obsessed with the Oscars being commercial again that they're willing to give Avatar Best Picture and award the former romcom queen? Read on... (Since there were no director or screenplay awards given out this week, I'm just focusing on the acting races and, of course, Best Picture, for this post.)

Best Picture
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
An Education
Up in the Air
District 9
Up
A Serious Man
Invictus

Personal Pick? An Education, which isn't getting nearly the love it should. It was a fun, entertaining movie that still managed to be deep and raise serious issues. If it were to be nominated, A Single Man would definitely be among my top picks, along with Inglourious Basterds, Precious, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air.

I know it's surprising that Up in the Air has been knocked down more than a few notches, but Inglourious Basterds really raised its game with the SAG Best Ensemble win, Precious' campaign has apparently really been making an impact and is by far the more emotionally-driven piece, and An Education got a big boost from the BAFTA nominations. Yes, it is more inclined to get those nominations since it's a British film, but seriously, it tied with Avatar and The Hurt Locker for the most nominations, and those two are the front-runners. Up in the Air has fallen victim to an absolutely vicious backlash, the likes of which I just don't understand, but let me just say this: from the bomb action in The Hurt Locker to the visual treats in Avatar, this is not an acting- or writing-focused movie's year. Which sucks.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Personal Pick? Firth was instantly memorable and mesmerizingly devastating in this role that went beyond gay or straight and was instead a look at what loss of love does to a man's world.

Bridges is locked and loaded. He'll win easily on Oscar night. Everyone else is, as I've said before, just here to party.

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Personal Pick? I liked so many of these performances, but Streep is an absolute chameleon in all her performances, and this time was no different. She's truly the Best Actress not only of this year, but of any year. The fact that she doesn't have ten of these things by now is a crime.

Mirren replaces Emily Blunt for one reason: neither of them got a BAFTA nomination. That may sound like poor logic, but in reality, Blunt needed that nomination (for a VERY British movie) to stay alive, and Mirren has a lot of the momentum that Blunt doesn't. I still say Streep is the favorite for this one, but we could be surprised on Oscar night. The only truly interesting thing is the timing of the SAG Awards: usually held during voting time for Oscar winners, the awards were held in the awkward period between nomination ballots being turned in and nominations being announced. So it's entirely possible that tonight had no effect on the awards whatsoever. Wouldn't that be ironic?

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Matt Damon, Invictus

Personal Pick? This one isn't even a debate. Waltz made like his name and danced around his competitors at the Globes, as he will at every awards show. His Colonel Hans Landa is insanely good, whereas the rest of these performances were, uh, not.

I feel strongly tempted to replace Damon with either Christian McKay or Alfred Molina, but I'm going to resist for the moment, if only because their lack of SAG support indicates that the momentum is not with them, and their BAFTA nominations came too late to have any impact on Oscar nominations. It should probably still go to Damon. Oh, and in case you weren't aware, Waltz is gonna win this thing.

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Penelope Cruz, Nine

Personal Pick? Is that a question? Mo'Nique is not only my pick in this category, not only in this year, but is the single best film performance in years.

...*cough* Um, well, I'm, uh, sure there are many different, er, twists and turns that, uh, this race could take... Ah, hell. It's Mo'Nique's.

Three of four acting races are locked up. The fourth is a question mark. The Best Picture race is still uneasy. The year that should have been the most outrageously hard to predict just became like all the others: a couple of still-confused races, but everything else is known before nominations even come out.

Putting the Globes in Perspective, Part Deux

Nobody panic now. Sandra Bullock isn't a better actress than Meryl Streep. The Golden Globes didn't totally destroy everything we know.

I've gotten more than a few people asking me today what the effects of the Globes are. I've read more than a few reports saying they don't mean jack. That's not really true, but they aren't super-important, either. In reality, they're a bit of a middle ground: they help somewhat, but unless you're at a real make-it-or-break-it point in your Oscar campaign, they're not vital, either.

Avatar didn't find itself eliminated from the race as I might have hoped, but things are hardly settled in the Best Picture race. Friday's Critics' Choice Awards for The Hurt Locker and its director, Kathryn Bigelow, set the stage for a brutal, drawn-out battle the likes of which America hasn't seen since Barack and Hillary.

In the other races, some things became settled, other races got jostled a bit, and some former frontrunners saw their campaigns go up in smoke. (*sob* Colin Firth! Damn you, precursors!)

Starting from this update, the Hit or Miss! options are gone (for the moment), and Personal Pick? is introduced, which is about as obvious a title as Snakes on a Plane.

Best Picture
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
An Education
Up
District 9
A Serious Man
Invictus

Personal Pick? An Education, which isn't getting nearly the love it should. It was a fun, entertaining movie that still managed to be deep and raise serious issues. If it were nominated, A Single Man would definitely be among my top picks, along with Inglourious Basterds, Precious, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air.

So much for (500) Days of Summer. You can't lose the Golden Globe to The Hangover and expect to keep your candidacy alive. This is really a two-film race now, and it should be an interesting battle between David and Goliath, between ex-husband and ex-wife, between blue monkeys and bomb diffusers. The rest are here for the party. (They best not be tardy, though.)

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Personal Pick? Firth was instantly memorable and mesmerizingly devastating in this role that went beyond gay or straight and was instead a look at what loss of love does to a man's world.

Renner and Freeman aren't even in the race, but they should easily get nominated, Freeman more easily than Renner. Bridges has got this locked up, though a few spoiler wins from Clooney or Firth could change things. I don't think that's possible, though. This one has the smell of a career achievement win.

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

Personal Pick? I liked so many of these performances, but Streep is an absolute chameleon in her acting, and this time was no different. She's truly the Best Actress.

Yes, Bullock is probably Streep's greatest competition now, but that isn't saying a whole lot. Sidibe and Mulligan were victims of early buzz, then fizzled out in favor of this intriguing new battle. I still don't think Helen Mirren will get the nod, though maybe I'm placing too much faith in Blunt. Mulligan needed a win to stay viable, and the Globes were her best shot. This is probably the most competitive acting race, but again, that's not saying a whole lot either. The Screen Actors Guild Awards on Saturday could shed some light, and maybe even shake things up with a win for Sidibe, but I have a feeling Streep's time has come again.

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Matt Damon, Invictus

Personal Pick? This one isn't even a debate. Waltz made like his name and danced around his competitors at the Globes, as he will at every awards show. His Colonel Hans Landa is insanely good, whereas the rest of these performances were, uh, not.

If the voters get a tad lazy and start throwing votes around to less deserving competitors (it's happened), things could swing away from Waltz, but that would be a tremendous disappointment and controversy. It's not likely to happen, and by the grace of God it won't.

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Penelope Cruz, Nine

Personal Pick? Is that a question? Mo'Nique is not only my pick in this category, not only in this year, but is the single best film performance in years.

This is a lock, but then again, you already knew that. Who would've thought when she was hosting Flavor of Love Girls: Charm School that Mo'Nique would be an Oscar winner, and a highly deserving one at that? Life's really funny (and fun, to be honest) like that.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Personal Pick? Girls can be just as bamf (thank you Will Klein, for that word choice) as boys can! Bigelow for the win.

Bigelow still has the buzz and the novelty factor ("Hey, women can direct, too!"), but Cameron is the King of the World, after all. He said so himself. Could he steal this away from his incredibly attractive ex-wife? Meanwhile, I don't think the awards voters are taking Tarantino's candidacy here very seriously. I foresee a loss for him, and possibly missing a nomination altogether. Love for Clint Eastwood still runs very deeply in the Academy, after all.

Best Original Screenplay
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Bob Peterson, Up
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man

Personal Pick? Basterds was loud and obnoxious at times, but Boal's script for The Hurt Locker spoke volumes through its silence.

Tarantino's win at the Critics' Choice Awards helps, but Boal has way more momentum for the long haul and, best of all, plays by WGA rules, important when making the Oscar shortlist. As always, this thing could go a zillion different directions.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Damien Paul, Precious
Nick Hornby, An Education
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Tom Ford, A Single Man

Personal Pick? Paul's script was incredible, but Precious isn't really a feat of writing. Hornby and Ford wrote impressively, and I did enjoy Up in the Air's script, but to me, blending two stories into one is really difficult work, and so Ephron gets my vote, even if her script wasn't technically the best here.

For the first time, I'm feeling less than confident about this list. Invictus' failure to impress screwed me up. The precursors aren't backing me up on this one, so I've gotta go with my gut. And likely flop on my face.

Any more questions about how things at the Globes affected the Oscar nominations? Feeling like I'm supremely underrating Sandra Bullock? Comments!

Corporate Chipmunk

While checking The Film Experience, a personal favorite blog/Oscar prediction site updated daily, I read about StinkyLulu's Supporting Actress Blogathon, which is a listing of different blog's tributes to different supporting actresses. That's actually really cool, considering most of the great work is done in the Supporting Actress category (the Leads are usually small in number, while the Supporting nominees could number a thousand most years; the inverse is true in the Actor categories).

However, while I was thrilled to see an entry about Mo'Nique's role in Precious (a true marvel), I was saddened to see that no one had written about Anna Kendrick, absolutely brilliant as corporate chipmunk Natalie Keener in Up in the Air and, in my opinion, an Oscar winner this year, had Mo'Nique not flattened all competition, that is.

Looking back on Air, the acting really wasn't that special (George Clooney was turning in a George Clooney role where he smiled and mugged his way to an Oscar nomination, Vera Farmiga was distractingly "mysterious," and not in a good way). The movie was far more a tribute to Jason Reitman's expert hand at making every element of a movie come together (Juno, anyone?), but there was one performance that was note-perfect, and that was easily Anna Kendrick's neurotic corporate ladder-climber.


"I'm a better actor than you. Deal with it, Fantastic Mr. Fox."

The third quarter of Air was decidedly less than impressive, and I would say that is because Kendrick's imprint had disappeared. From her first moment on-screen, you know that this is someone to watch. Natalie Keener is made to be an irritating drag on Clooney's charming Ryan Bingham, but I see them as equals, battling between the modern and the classic, much like Rachel McAdams and Russell Crowe should have been in State of Play.

Kendrick has an ease with which she bats words back and forth with both Clooney and Farmiga, and is easily the most quotable character in the film ("I type with purpose;" "I appreciate everything your generation did for me"), but what is most impressive is her ability to command the screen in an extremely subtle way the likes of which I haven't seen since Emily Blunt in The Devil Wears Prada sniped her way into our hearts.

Unlike Blunt, however, it is never difficult for us to like Keener, and to like Kendrick, as she mercilessly teases Ryan Bingham and deals with her own personal struggles. It takes a gifted actress to play the hotel breakdown scene as charmingly as she did, and though we didn't cry with her, she made it easy to laugh at her. In fact, Keener was a lot like Gilmore Girls' similarly ambitious Paris Gellar, yet by toning the ferocity down a bit, Kendrick allowed the audience to truly pull for her.

The fact that Kendrick has to face Mo'Nique head-to-head and will most certainly lose is as devastating to me as when Meryl Streep had to face Helen Mirren three years ago: like Kendrick, Streep was faced with a certain loss. However, when I rewatch Up in the Air again ten years from now, I will double over with laughter at her drunken rendition of Cyndi Lauper's "Time After Time" just as hard as I did the first time.

To me, that she gets to inspire that joy is as good as any Oscar.

Putting the Globes in Perspective

Hee. That title almost sounds dirty.

As I've said before, I have no business predicting the Golden Globe winners. Not only do they have screwy curveballs (Kate Winslet, give back one of two your Globes from last year!), but they also have TV categories, and while that's all well-and-good come Emmy time, I don't have the patience to predict the same categories mid-year and get a ridiculously different result than I get in the fall.

So no, I won't be predicting any of the Golden Globe categories for tonight. You shouldn't try, either. But what I will do is provide you a little perspective on what tonight might mean for the Oscar race.

But first: a rant. It's become known that Taylor Lautner, believed to be hunky Native American werewolf from that series about vampires, will be seated with the stars and crew of The Hurt Locker at the Golden Globes in order to, more or less, sexy up the table. Here's why I find this to be logically flawed:


Hi. How're you doing, Kathryn? If every woman at 58 looked this good, cougars would be... well, they already are a phenomenon. Hey, James Cameron! You left this to be with your crinkly old wife? Good life choices, buddy!

And for the ladies...

Jeremy would kick Wolfie's ass, if you ask me.

I think it's pretty insulting to The Hurt Locker's team to consider them so hideous they have to camoflauge them with sexy werewolves. Frankly, I'd take these guys and gals over the hideously pale and angsty cast of that one vampire movie saga any day of the week.

All right. Rant over. Time for the effects of tonight on the Oscar race.

Best Picture, Drama could go to either Avatar, The Hurt Locker, or Up in the Air. The Iraq War drama probably isn't starry enough for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, though the Critics' Choice win on Friday could signal a swing in voting patterns. Make no mistake, folks: This race isn't over, not by a long shot. In fact, heavily favored frontrunner Avatar needs to win tonight to continue its viability as a Best Picture winner at the Oscars. Losing the first two awards out of the gate would be poisonous for the blue monkey version of Pocahontas. Up in the Air will probably win tonight, and that would help its campaign resurge and make this more of a two-film race, edging out the silly Avatar.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical can only really benefit one movie: (500) Days of Summer. If it wins, it becomes a probable Oscar nominee. This is also Nine's last chance to prove how viable it is as a nominee, though I'd say that ship has sailed long ago. The two Meryl Streep vehicles will cancel each other out, and The Hangover will NEVER be an Oscar nominee. Sorry to burst your bubble, rabid fans of The Hangover.

The Best Lead Actor races aren't going to tell us much about their Oscar equivalents, unless a win in Drama from A Single Man's brilliant Colin Firth throws him into the heat of the race again instead of languishing in third place behind Jeff Bridges and George Clooney. Bridges' performance was a little too American for Globe voters, so Clooney will probably dash away with the prize, but it won't have much impact at the Oscars, where Bridges is looking more likely with every passing day.

The Best Lead Actress races, however, could turn the whole Oscar race on its head. If Emily Blunt wins the Drama race, which, due to the foreign quality to her performance as well as the Globes' obvious love for her (she's was a winner for a television miniseries performance in Empire Falls and a nominee for The Devil Wears Prada in the same year), is looking entirely possible, Helen Mirren's Oscar candidacy is done. If Gabourey Sidibe wins, Carey Mulligan loses all hope of winning. If Sandra Bullock wins, Meryl Streep wins the Oscar. For this particular performance (The Blind Side's Leigh Anne Tuhoy), Bullock will never win an Oscar, so if she keeps racking up the early awards, blocking Sidibe or Mulligan from winning, Streep, an obvious winner tonight for Julie & Julia in the Comedy/Musical category, will easily win her third Oscar. Mulligan needs to win this one to stay viable as an opponent to Streep.

Since we're talking in hypotheticals, however, here's one that would really send things reeling: a double win for Sandra Bullock. If that were to happen, which it won't, she would suddenly become the frontrunner for the Oscar, and that would be scary. But it won't, so no one get all crazy.

The Supporting categories are locked, so don't worry about those. Mo'Nique and Christoph Waltz could probably kill somebody and still win. As long as they don't get all crazy and interrupt Taylor Swift's acceptance speech somewhere ("I am going to allow you to finish, young fraülein, but Beyonce had one of the best bingos in all of history!"), they're set.

That's all that really matters for tonight. Keep all that in mind as you watch on NBC at 7, with red carpet coverage starting as early as 4 on E! Feel free to use the comments section to post your thoughts as the winners come in tonight!