Sunday, January 17, 2010

Putting the Globes in Perspective

Hee. That title almost sounds dirty.

As I've said before, I have no business predicting the Golden Globe winners. Not only do they have screwy curveballs (Kate Winslet, give back one of two your Globes from last year!), but they also have TV categories, and while that's all well-and-good come Emmy time, I don't have the patience to predict the same categories mid-year and get a ridiculously different result than I get in the fall.

So no, I won't be predicting any of the Golden Globe categories for tonight. You shouldn't try, either. But what I will do is provide you a little perspective on what tonight might mean for the Oscar race.

But first: a rant. It's become known that Taylor Lautner, believed to be hunky Native American werewolf from that series about vampires, will be seated with the stars and crew of The Hurt Locker at the Golden Globes in order to, more or less, sexy up the table. Here's why I find this to be logically flawed:

Hi. How're you doing, Kathryn? If every woman at 58 looked this good, cougars would be... well, they already are a phenomenon. Hey, James Cameron! You left this to be with your crinkly old wife? Good life choices, buddy!

And for the ladies...

Jeremy would kick Wolfie's ass, if you ask me.

I think it's pretty insulting to The Hurt Locker's team to consider them so hideous they have to camoflauge them with sexy werewolves. Frankly, I'd take these guys and gals over the hideously pale and angsty cast of that one vampire movie saga any day of the week.

All right. Rant over. Time for the effects of tonight on the Oscar race.

Best Picture, Drama could go to either Avatar, The Hurt Locker, or Up in the Air. The Iraq War drama probably isn't starry enough for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, though the Critics' Choice win on Friday could signal a swing in voting patterns. Make no mistake, folks: This race isn't over, not by a long shot. In fact, heavily favored frontrunner Avatar needs to win tonight to continue its viability as a Best Picture winner at the Oscars. Losing the first two awards out of the gate would be poisonous for the blue monkey version of Pocahontas. Up in the Air will probably win tonight, and that would help its campaign resurge and make this more of a two-film race, edging out the silly Avatar.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical can only really benefit one movie: (500) Days of Summer. If it wins, it becomes a probable Oscar nominee. This is also Nine's last chance to prove how viable it is as a nominee, though I'd say that ship has sailed long ago. The two Meryl Streep vehicles will cancel each other out, and The Hangover will NEVER be an Oscar nominee. Sorry to burst your bubble, rabid fans of The Hangover.

The Best Lead Actor races aren't going to tell us much about their Oscar equivalents, unless a win in Drama from A Single Man's brilliant Colin Firth throws him into the heat of the race again instead of languishing in third place behind Jeff Bridges and George Clooney. Bridges' performance was a little too American for Globe voters, so Clooney will probably dash away with the prize, but it won't have much impact at the Oscars, where Bridges is looking more likely with every passing day.

The Best Lead Actress races, however, could turn the whole Oscar race on its head. If Emily Blunt wins the Drama race, which, due to the foreign quality to her performance as well as the Globes' obvious love for her (she's was a winner for a television miniseries performance in Empire Falls and a nominee for The Devil Wears Prada in the same year), is looking entirely possible, Helen Mirren's Oscar candidacy is done. If Gabourey Sidibe wins, Carey Mulligan loses all hope of winning. If Sandra Bullock wins, Meryl Streep wins the Oscar. For this particular performance (The Blind Side's Leigh Anne Tuhoy), Bullock will never win an Oscar, so if she keeps racking up the early awards, blocking Sidibe or Mulligan from winning, Streep, an obvious winner tonight for Julie & Julia in the Comedy/Musical category, will easily win her third Oscar. Mulligan needs to win this one to stay viable as an opponent to Streep.

Since we're talking in hypotheticals, however, here's one that would really send things reeling: a double win for Sandra Bullock. If that were to happen, which it won't, she would suddenly become the frontrunner for the Oscar, and that would be scary. But it won't, so no one get all crazy.

The Supporting categories are locked, so don't worry about those. Mo'Nique and Christoph Waltz could probably kill somebody and still win. As long as they don't get all crazy and interrupt Taylor Swift's acceptance speech somewhere ("I am going to allow you to finish, young fraĆ¼lein, but Beyonce had one of the best bingos in all of history!"), they're set.

That's all that really matters for tonight. Keep all that in mind as you watch on NBC at 7, with red carpet coverage starting as early as 4 on E! Feel free to use the comments section to post your thoughts as the winners come in tonight!


RC said...

I think it's interesting you talk about some very-American performances not having a chance, because now in perspective if you think about the winner's there all fairly american roles (with the exception of Sherlock Holmes, but come on, Downey Jr. is pretty American if you ask me).

Go figure, it's a change for the Globes.

Kevin said...

RC: Thanks for the comment! It actually is really odd (post to come about it, actually), because the Globes in the past few years have really stood in stark contrast (Kate Winslet's two wins, for example) with this new super-American attitude. Some things were great (Jeff Bridges, "The Weary Kind"), others... not so great (Sandra Bullock, The Hangover, and the gawdawful Avatar). Sooo... mixed results, I guess?