We'll get back to the Oscar pandemonium momentarily. For a moment, I want to vent on some breaking news today that, to me, is far better news than anyone understands.
Before that, though, just a reminder of some big events happening over the next few weeks. First, the premiere of American Idol (ironically, the subject of this post) is tomorrow at 7, then Wednesday at the same time. I probably won't be blogging much on Idol this season; last season's hack job made me realize the talent competition is a guilty pleasure best indulged without thinking too hard.
Thursday brings the premiere of Project Runway back to New York City (thank God) and my blogging back, but don't expect the updates to be very timely this time around, what with Oscar season and all other goings-on. Suffice it to say that this season seems MUCH better than the last at first glance.
Friday is the first big awards show of the season: the Critics' Choice Awards. They're usually the ones to reward real crowd favorites, so if Avatar is gonna keep up its momentum, look for a win here.
Sunday brings the Golden Globes at 7, with red carpet coverage on E! and the TV Guide Channel at 5-ish-or-so (come for the strange interviews by Ryan Seacrest, stay for the weird, Isaac-Mizrahi-just-grabbed-Scarlett-Johannsen's-melons moments). These are the closest things to precursors for the Oscars, plus television categories, plus booze. (The now-infamous Isaiah Washington incident? The Golden Globes.)
After that comes the Screen Actors Guild Awards on the 23rd. ("I'm Will Arnett, and I'm an alco-er, ACTOR.") Not everyone's cup of tea, the SAGs are usually very self-congratulatory, but Sandra Bullock's presenting a Career Achievement Award to Betty White. You can't beat that.
The 25th marks the premiere of Damages, by far the most entertaining show on television (save Glee, of course). I'm going to take a moment to pretend you care and will watch on the 25th on FX at 9. Thank you.
The 2nd of February is the big one: the Oscar nominations! It's like Christmas morning for someone like me!
Everyone got all those dates? Good, because now I'm gonna rant.
Let me be clear: Simon Cowell leaving American Idol is the single best thing to happen to that show in years. Last season's errors in judgment and overall irritation factor can be almost wholly attributed to Cowell. He's grown bored with this show, ignoring one of Allison Iraheta's performances last season to draw on former judge Paula Abdul's face. Attentive, huh?
Is him leaving going to alter the face of America's biggest reality show permanently? Absolutely. But there's no reason it can't be for the better. My suggestion for his replacement? Get ready: Ben Folds.
Hear me out. The hipster/indie artist judged this season's The Sing-Off on NBC, which was, like most things on NBC these days (hi, Conan! How's being edged out by Jay Leno AGAIN treating you?), a travesty. However, Folds was intelligent, kind, on-point, and almost the perfect reality show judge. He'd be the perfect choice to fill Cowell's shoes.
This doesn't have to be a singularly beneficial relationship, either. With Folds in the fold (sorry), Idol could spotlight more indie-focused artists, as well as featuring music from out-of-the-norm artists. Plus, Folds would gain an entirely new fanbase. (Which, by the way, would likely draw his current supporters nuts, making me giggle in the process.)
What do you guys think? Bad move? Or an interesting way to turn the biggest show in America on its head? Take it to the comments, folks!
Monday, January 11, 2010
The Big Picture on Best Picture
Okay, I know I said I would focus on the niche categories this week, but I'll be honest: the niche categories drive me up a wall. I have no love for them. Therefore, I'm moving onto Best Picture. Sue me. It's my blog, and I'll cry if I want to.
Best Picture
This one's more complicated than just a list and a Hit or Miss! pick. This is a conversation that is veering in a whole host of different directions, so I'm going to just analyze ALL of them.
This will take a while.
The Frontrunners: Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Avatar.
See, if there were only five Best Picture nominees this year, it would be so easy to put together a list. All five movies have a shot at the gold due to the new weighted-vote system, and it benefits no other movie more than Inglourious Basterds, which may not receive as many #1 votes as a movie such as, oh, let's say, the ridiculously bad Avatar (not picking on any one movie, cough-cough), but a significant amount of #2 and #3 votes could be even better. Up in the Air is, unfortunately, suffering from a fatal backlash, and Precious never really recovered from its own backlash, but both movies have ardent fans and could pull an upset. This race, however, is probably down to the aforementioned Avatar and Basterds, as well as critical darling The Hurt Locker, and I have more faith in the Iraq War drama than any other. It should strike a balance that neither Basterds nor Avatar can hit: a mixture of #1 votes and lower preference (but still critically important) votes. If it does that, then it's won.
The Middle-of-the-Road: An Education, Invictus, and A Serious Man.
Since those five spots are filled, and any other movie stands little to no chance of ousting them, the race becomes not to win, but to be nominated, and there are five more spots with which to accomplish that goal. The three movies here have, for one reason or another, made themselves seem like obvious options. An Education had a tidal wave of buzz going early on, but fizzled as more flashy movies (Up in the Air, Avatar) made their impressions. Invictus, despite solid reviews, never had the sort of gangbuster support that most of the big movies have, but because it's a Clint Eastwood flick, should still squeak into the race. Finally, A Serious Man has some ardent supporters, though not enough, which should be good enough for a nomination, not a win. I'd say the latter two films will have more problems than An Education will.
The Indie Spoilers: A Single Man, (500) Days of Summer, The Messenger, and Crazy Heart.
Ask Brokeback Mountain: there's nothing more likely to unseat an obvious frontrunner than a good old indie. (Hi, Crash!) Any of the movies listed here could make it into the big race, though I have a lot of faith in (500) Days of Summer and The Messenger, despite my distaste for the former. I don't think A Single Man has the buzz to make it in, nor do I think Crazy Heart has the visibility beyond Jeff Bridges' starring performance (see also: The Wrestler, again). There are probably four spots in contention, with two wide open, so the two movies with the buzz and critical adoration have a very good shot.
The Commercial Favorites: Star Trek, The Hangover, The Blind Side, and Up.
These were the movies that were supposed to make it into the big race with the ten nominee shift, but I only have confidence in one of the four making it in. The Blind Side is really just a Sandra Bullock vehicle, so discount that one. Ditto The Hangover; I'm still not sure why there was a wave of support for this movie, but it's never been a real contender. It's an incredibly funny comedy, but not a very well-executed one, and that's what matters to the Academy. (Juno, if you please.) Star Trek could benefit from its late-game buzz shift, but so many ballots were already filled out by the time all this came to pass, it's not as likely as The Summer Flick With Momentum below. Up was heavily favored earlier, but things have really turned against it, including a good tide for The Fantastic Mr. Fox. Look for that to possibly derail its chances, though I still believe that it has a chance of making it in.
The Meryl Streep Vehicles: It's Complicated and Julie & Julia.
Either one of these movies could spoil the race by making it in, but I don't really have that much faith in either simply because I think they'll split votes. Color me surprised if one of them does, but if one of them does, it'll be Julie & Julia.
The Summer Flick With Momentum: District 9.
I have a lot of faith in District 9 suddenly. With major nominations coming through, as well as hype before those nominations (which Star Trek didn't have), it has a great shot at one of those leftover spots. And that is very bad for Avatar, which probably can't win if there's another sci-fi picture in the race (let alone two!). See Dave Karger's OscarWatch blog on EW.com for more on that.
The Fallen From Grace: Nine and The Lovely Bones.
Yikes. What happened here, folks? These were supposed to be the Oscar movies this year, and neither one is likely to get a nomination. Bones is done; I've honestly never seen a greater flop from grace--(*suddenly remembers Australia)--oh, wait, scratch that. Nine could still scrape a nod, considering the Academy usually loves him more than critics or audiences do, but I don't think those critics and audiences have hated on him quite as much as they are now. So it's a toss-up. The ultimate Hit or Miss, if you will.
If I had to put together a list right now, it might look a little something like this:
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Avatar
Precious
An Education
A Serious Man
Up
(500) Days of Summer
District 9
Man and Summer are the most vulnerable due to cross-competition (respectively, Invictus and The Messenger, but I think the buzz/critical adoration will help put them over the top.
One thing's for sure, though: this is the hardest race to call in years, and it really shouldn't have been.
Best Picture
This one's more complicated than just a list and a Hit or Miss! pick. This is a conversation that is veering in a whole host of different directions, so I'm going to just analyze ALL of them.
This will take a while.
The Frontrunners: Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Avatar.
See, if there were only five Best Picture nominees this year, it would be so easy to put together a list. All five movies have a shot at the gold due to the new weighted-vote system, and it benefits no other movie more than Inglourious Basterds, which may not receive as many #1 votes as a movie such as, oh, let's say, the ridiculously bad Avatar (not picking on any one movie, cough-cough), but a significant amount of #2 and #3 votes could be even better. Up in the Air is, unfortunately, suffering from a fatal backlash, and Precious never really recovered from its own backlash, but both movies have ardent fans and could pull an upset. This race, however, is probably down to the aforementioned Avatar and Basterds, as well as critical darling The Hurt Locker, and I have more faith in the Iraq War drama than any other. It should strike a balance that neither Basterds nor Avatar can hit: a mixture of #1 votes and lower preference (but still critically important) votes. If it does that, then it's won.
The Middle-of-the-Road: An Education, Invictus, and A Serious Man.
Since those five spots are filled, and any other movie stands little to no chance of ousting them, the race becomes not to win, but to be nominated, and there are five more spots with which to accomplish that goal. The three movies here have, for one reason or another, made themselves seem like obvious options. An Education had a tidal wave of buzz going early on, but fizzled as more flashy movies (Up in the Air, Avatar) made their impressions. Invictus, despite solid reviews, never had the sort of gangbuster support that most of the big movies have, but because it's a Clint Eastwood flick, should still squeak into the race. Finally, A Serious Man has some ardent supporters, though not enough, which should be good enough for a nomination, not a win. I'd say the latter two films will have more problems than An Education will.
The Indie Spoilers: A Single Man, (500) Days of Summer, The Messenger, and Crazy Heart.
Ask Brokeback Mountain: there's nothing more likely to unseat an obvious frontrunner than a good old indie. (Hi, Crash!) Any of the movies listed here could make it into the big race, though I have a lot of faith in (500) Days of Summer and The Messenger, despite my distaste for the former. I don't think A Single Man has the buzz to make it in, nor do I think Crazy Heart has the visibility beyond Jeff Bridges' starring performance (see also: The Wrestler, again). There are probably four spots in contention, with two wide open, so the two movies with the buzz and critical adoration have a very good shot.
The Commercial Favorites: Star Trek, The Hangover, The Blind Side, and Up.
These were the movies that were supposed to make it into the big race with the ten nominee shift, but I only have confidence in one of the four making it in. The Blind Side is really just a Sandra Bullock vehicle, so discount that one. Ditto The Hangover; I'm still not sure why there was a wave of support for this movie, but it's never been a real contender. It's an incredibly funny comedy, but not a very well-executed one, and that's what matters to the Academy. (Juno, if you please.) Star Trek could benefit from its late-game buzz shift, but so many ballots were already filled out by the time all this came to pass, it's not as likely as The Summer Flick With Momentum below. Up was heavily favored earlier, but things have really turned against it, including a good tide for The Fantastic Mr. Fox. Look for that to possibly derail its chances, though I still believe that it has a chance of making it in.
The Meryl Streep Vehicles: It's Complicated and Julie & Julia.
Either one of these movies could spoil the race by making it in, but I don't really have that much faith in either simply because I think they'll split votes. Color me surprised if one of them does, but if one of them does, it'll be Julie & Julia.
The Summer Flick With Momentum: District 9.
I have a lot of faith in District 9 suddenly. With major nominations coming through, as well as hype before those nominations (which Star Trek didn't have), it has a great shot at one of those leftover spots. And that is very bad for Avatar, which probably can't win if there's another sci-fi picture in the race (let alone two!). See Dave Karger's OscarWatch blog on EW.com for more on that.
The Fallen From Grace: Nine and The Lovely Bones.
Yikes. What happened here, folks? These were supposed to be the Oscar movies this year, and neither one is likely to get a nomination. Bones is done; I've honestly never seen a greater flop from grace--(*suddenly remembers Australia)--oh, wait, scratch that. Nine could still scrape a nod, considering the Academy usually loves him more than critics or audiences do, but I don't think those critics and audiences have hated on him quite as much as they are now. So it's a toss-up. The ultimate Hit or Miss, if you will.
If I had to put together a list right now, it might look a little something like this:
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Avatar
Precious
An Education
A Serious Man
Up
(500) Days of Summer
District 9
Man and Summer are the most vulnerable due to cross-competition (respectively, Invictus and The Messenger, but I think the buzz/critical adoration will help put them over the top.
One thing's for sure, though: this is the hardest race to call in years, and it really shouldn't have been.
Monday, January 4, 2010
What Did I Think?
Oscarologists are supposed to remain impartial when it comes to Oscar films so as to evaluate simply on merits, buzz, and hype, not personal opinion. That said, sometimes we forget what it's like to actually talk about what movies we absolutely loved the past year, what performances had us floored, and what we would vote for if we had ballots.
A "top" list is a little tired, in my opinion. Instead, I'll just discuss what would have been my top entries in each category (there's only six, don't stress), followed by a winner.
If you haven't seen any of the films mentioned here, do yourself a favor and go. They're all extraordinary and actually the best films of the year, which is a shock, because they're all Oscar favorites. That doesn't happen that often.
Best Picture
This one comes down to a five-way race in my mind. To me, there were no better movies this year than The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air, and An Education, and all five were movies that I really, truly loved. Last year, I had to struggle to come up with five movies that I generally liked, and only one was nominated for Best Picture (Slumdog Millionaire; the other three were Doubt, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, WALL-E, and Rachel Getting Married. While Locker and Basterds are both triumphs, their directors, marvelous as they are, each have at least one scene that seems completely unnecessary and overindulgent (the bar scene in Basterds is especially egregious; that could have advanced the plot in about four minutes, but Quentin Tarantino decided to make it a half-hour doldrum in an otherwise fast-moving film). Plus, their overall strong ensembles are brought down by one weak performance each from characters that don't even matter to the main plot. Precious is an incredible film, and the central performances from Gabourey Sidibe and Mo'Nique are monstrously good, but it lacks a strong ending, rather petering out, so it doesn't seem like a plausible winner. That leaves it up to Up in the Air and An Education, both modern movies in their own right with performances from female ingenues that drive the movies. While I did love Air, despite any depressing aspects to its story, there was something special about Education that I loved, though I can't seem to find anyone else that did as well. There's something magical about Carey Mulligan's performance, and the movie relies on acting and writing, not some ridiculous other element (blue monkeys, anyone?). For what it's worth, to me, An Education was the year's Best Picture.
Best Director
I have to admire someone like Lee Daniels who can use innovative casting and pull incredible performances out of his actors. It's something really special that is often overlooked in races like these. Quentin Tarantino really made an odd-duck movie like Inglourious Basterds work, a feat in and of itself, and he made it work brilliantly. Take it from someone who is not a Tarantino fan: he did good on this one. But truly, the best director of the year is unquestionably Kathryn Bigelow, who crafted one of the most interesting, intriguing, challenging war movies of all time, and removed politics from the equation to create something great. The fact that she's a woman only makes that better.
Best Actor
I didn't like many lead male performances this year. Most of them just felt a little too effortless to me, none moreso than George Clooney in Up in the Air. I think the Best Actor branch probably has the most performances that really don't deserve their nominations. I like to see actors work for their reward, as Brad Pitt did in Inglourious Basterds. I always forget that the megastar is actually a great comic actor, as proven by his instantly iconic Lieutenant Aldo Raine. Dramatic performances? Ehh... But comedically, Pitt's a stronger force than you (or I) realize. However, the truly incredible performance this year came from 32-year old Jeremy Renner, whose tour-de-force performance in The Hurt Locker truly elevated the work, and the work was pretty damn good to begin with. A movie like this doesn't really work unless the acting is naturalistic and effortless. Renner was.
Best Actress
This is truly the toughest category of them all. Gabourey Sidibe was a total knockout in Precious, creating such an intricate character with so few words. Performances like these wherein the actor has never had any experience but just goes for it are really fantastic. Still, the Ingenue of the Year award goes to Carey Mulligan, who made the precocious schoolgirl of An Education a deep and highly entertaining character. However, neither of the ingenues can beat the legend, as Meryl Streep had (once again) an incredible year filled with box office success, awards buzz, and love from almost every major media outlet. Her performance as Julia Child in Julie & Julia is a treat the likes of the pastries Julia creates, as she imbues the chef with a goose-honk laugh and a love for life that cannot be quashed. The movie may have faltered at points, but this performance was top-shelf.
Best Supporting Actor
Not big on this category this year, either. There was some good supporting acting done, but the Academy is likely to nominate the wrong performances. To wit: I hate when a great actor gets nominated for the wrong performance, as so happened with Leonardo DiCaprio two years ago for Blood Diamond over The Departed, and as will happen this year for Stanley Tucci, as he gets nominated for The Lovely Bones over Julie & Julia. That error can be chalked up to the Academy's tendency to love over-the-top performances more than their subtle counterparts, but as Julia Child's ever-devoted husband, Tucci was truly sublime. Alfred Molina had a lot of awards buzz early for his priceless role as An Education's fussy father, full of comic relief and dramatic exposition, but the buzz simply didn't pan out. Thank goodness, then, that Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds' evil genius Colonel Hans Landa, is locked to win this year's Oscar, because his performance was indelible and incredible. He was the one, along with Tarantino, who made the crazy concept and execution work.
Best Supporting Actress
Unlike the male counterpart category, the Oscars are actually going to get this category right. Anna Kendrick is brilliant as corporate chipmunk Natalie Keener in Up in the Air. Her breakdown scene is sure to be an instant classic, and she is as quotable ("I type with purpose;" "I don't want to sound anti-feminist; I mean, I really respect everything your generation did for me") as any soundbite-spewing star of a fratboy comedy. (Side note: anyone heard from Seth Rogen lately? Jonah Hill? No? Oh, I guess everyone's okay with Zach Galifinakis for now. For now.) Emily Blunt won't be recognized for her strong work in the quirky Sunshine Cleaning, but it is a little off-brand for them: she's not abusing her child or breaking down in tears randomly, after all. Still, the performance of the year, in ANY category, belongs to the absolutely incredible Mo'Nique. Never again should anyone consider this comedienne a lightweight: her performance in Precious is dynamic, intriguing, challenging, difficult to watch, but incredibly rewarding. I'm trying to remember a performance I liked more in the past decade, and I'm pretty sure there isn't one.
So those were my choices. What were yours? Think I'm a little too high on Mo'Nique? Anyone I should have acknowledged in the sparse Best Actor category? Leave your comments below!
A "top" list is a little tired, in my opinion. Instead, I'll just discuss what would have been my top entries in each category (there's only six, don't stress), followed by a winner.
If you haven't seen any of the films mentioned here, do yourself a favor and go. They're all extraordinary and actually the best films of the year, which is a shock, because they're all Oscar favorites. That doesn't happen that often.
Best Picture
This one comes down to a five-way race in my mind. To me, there were no better movies this year than The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air, and An Education, and all five were movies that I really, truly loved. Last year, I had to struggle to come up with five movies that I generally liked, and only one was nominated for Best Picture (Slumdog Millionaire; the other three were Doubt, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, WALL-E, and Rachel Getting Married. While Locker and Basterds are both triumphs, their directors, marvelous as they are, each have at least one scene that seems completely unnecessary and overindulgent (the bar scene in Basterds is especially egregious; that could have advanced the plot in about four minutes, but Quentin Tarantino decided to make it a half-hour doldrum in an otherwise fast-moving film). Plus, their overall strong ensembles are brought down by one weak performance each from characters that don't even matter to the main plot. Precious is an incredible film, and the central performances from Gabourey Sidibe and Mo'Nique are monstrously good, but it lacks a strong ending, rather petering out, so it doesn't seem like a plausible winner. That leaves it up to Up in the Air and An Education, both modern movies in their own right with performances from female ingenues that drive the movies. While I did love Air, despite any depressing aspects to its story, there was something special about Education that I loved, though I can't seem to find anyone else that did as well. There's something magical about Carey Mulligan's performance, and the movie relies on acting and writing, not some ridiculous other element (blue monkeys, anyone?). For what it's worth, to me, An Education was the year's Best Picture.
Best Director
I have to admire someone like Lee Daniels who can use innovative casting and pull incredible performances out of his actors. It's something really special that is often overlooked in races like these. Quentin Tarantino really made an odd-duck movie like Inglourious Basterds work, a feat in and of itself, and he made it work brilliantly. Take it from someone who is not a Tarantino fan: he did good on this one. But truly, the best director of the year is unquestionably Kathryn Bigelow, who crafted one of the most interesting, intriguing, challenging war movies of all time, and removed politics from the equation to create something great. The fact that she's a woman only makes that better.
Best Actor
I didn't like many lead male performances this year. Most of them just felt a little too effortless to me, none moreso than George Clooney in Up in the Air. I think the Best Actor branch probably has the most performances that really don't deserve their nominations. I like to see actors work for their reward, as Brad Pitt did in Inglourious Basterds. I always forget that the megastar is actually a great comic actor, as proven by his instantly iconic Lieutenant Aldo Raine. Dramatic performances? Ehh... But comedically, Pitt's a stronger force than you (or I) realize. However, the truly incredible performance this year came from 32-year old Jeremy Renner, whose tour-de-force performance in The Hurt Locker truly elevated the work, and the work was pretty damn good to begin with. A movie like this doesn't really work unless the acting is naturalistic and effortless. Renner was.
Best Actress
This is truly the toughest category of them all. Gabourey Sidibe was a total knockout in Precious, creating such an intricate character with so few words. Performances like these wherein the actor has never had any experience but just goes for it are really fantastic. Still, the Ingenue of the Year award goes to Carey Mulligan, who made the precocious schoolgirl of An Education a deep and highly entertaining character. However, neither of the ingenues can beat the legend, as Meryl Streep had (once again) an incredible year filled with box office success, awards buzz, and love from almost every major media outlet. Her performance as Julia Child in Julie & Julia is a treat the likes of the pastries Julia creates, as she imbues the chef with a goose-honk laugh and a love for life that cannot be quashed. The movie may have faltered at points, but this performance was top-shelf.
Best Supporting Actor
Not big on this category this year, either. There was some good supporting acting done, but the Academy is likely to nominate the wrong performances. To wit: I hate when a great actor gets nominated for the wrong performance, as so happened with Leonardo DiCaprio two years ago for Blood Diamond over The Departed, and as will happen this year for Stanley Tucci, as he gets nominated for The Lovely Bones over Julie & Julia. That error can be chalked up to the Academy's tendency to love over-the-top performances more than their subtle counterparts, but as Julia Child's ever-devoted husband, Tucci was truly sublime. Alfred Molina had a lot of awards buzz early for his priceless role as An Education's fussy father, full of comic relief and dramatic exposition, but the buzz simply didn't pan out. Thank goodness, then, that Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds' evil genius Colonel Hans Landa, is locked to win this year's Oscar, because his performance was indelible and incredible. He was the one, along with Tarantino, who made the crazy concept and execution work.
Best Supporting Actress
Unlike the male counterpart category, the Oscars are actually going to get this category right. Anna Kendrick is brilliant as corporate chipmunk Natalie Keener in Up in the Air. Her breakdown scene is sure to be an instant classic, and she is as quotable ("I type with purpose;" "I don't want to sound anti-feminist; I mean, I really respect everything your generation did for me") as any soundbite-spewing star of a fratboy comedy. (Side note: anyone heard from Seth Rogen lately? Jonah Hill? No? Oh, I guess everyone's okay with Zach Galifinakis for now. For now.) Emily Blunt won't be recognized for her strong work in the quirky Sunshine Cleaning, but it is a little off-brand for them: she's not abusing her child or breaking down in tears randomly, after all. Still, the performance of the year, in ANY category, belongs to the absolutely incredible Mo'Nique. Never again should anyone consider this comedienne a lightweight: her performance in Precious is dynamic, intriguing, challenging, difficult to watch, but incredibly rewarding. I'm trying to remember a performance I liked more in the past decade, and I'm pretty sure there isn't one.
So those were my choices. What were yours? Think I'm a little too high on Mo'Nique? Anyone I should have acknowledged in the sparse Best Actor category? Leave your comments below!
Saturday, January 2, 2010
The Basterds Who Matter
Acting's for lightweights, anyway. The real creative process happens behind the scenes. These are the people that make the movie. These are the writers and directors.
Incidentally, these three categories are the most maddening of any (save the technical categories). Sometimes they take ugly turns: Jason Reitman's Best Director nomination for Juno despite the fact that he actually did very little for that movie, for example. Worse even is how glorified the directors' race has become compared to the undervalued, unappreciated screenplay races. (Yes, I'm biased, but I'd like to think my humanistic side would be offended at the uneven appreciation of work even if I was a director instead of a writer. Probably not.)
At any rate, the Best Director race is usually a strong indicator of the Best Picture race. Usually. With ten nominees, there's little chance that a Best Picture candidate's director won't also be nominated for Best Picture, so go ahead and throw that theory out the window. Also throw out all your predispositions that the Best Director field is only for stodgy old white men: this year is changing that (thank God). As I've mentioned, the Best Original Screenplay category is my Achilles' Heel, while I can usually get the Best Adapted Screenplay category right-on. All that said, let's take a look at the guys and gals vying for Academy voters' hearts from behind the scenes.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
Hit or Miss! Lone Scherfig, An Education
This is the newly-announced Directors' Guild of America lineup, and it looks like our lineup for the Oscars as well.
Bigelow is poised to become the fourth woman nominated for this honor and the first to win, and if there's any justice in this world, that's exactly what will happen. Her direction is what made The Hurt Locker the awards contender it is. Yes, the ensemble was impressive, and yes, the script was strong, but make no mistake: Bigelow's eagle eye for making less than fifty days on a bomb squad during the Iraq War a story for the ages is what really put it over the top.
Cameron, a former winner here for Titanic (and, ironically, ex-husband of Bigelow), is his former wife's greatest competition. He's surely an innovative and impressive filmmaker, and he has a talent for turning the idea of film on its head, but I have a serious problem with his directorial effort this time around: it's good, but not at the caliber it should have been. The writing was an absolute catastrophe, and there wasn't much plot actually needed. The whole thing reeked of "Hey, look, strange blue monkeys!"-style distraction. Don't you dare criticize the paper-thin plot, because his technological advances and directorial eye were incredible. Yes, indeed they were. But this film has been the product of 12 years worth of labor. He couldn't have gotten together better than a ramshackles for a script? This category may not directly be about writing, but he should've done better in that respect. If he had, who knows what all this movie could have won?
Boys and girls, I worry about Tarantino's health. Yes, he's an incredible director, but what kind of mind could come up with Pulp Fiction and Inglourious Basterds? A sick one, that's what. He should ably score his second nomination in this category this year, but the man's so controversial a win would be even more upsetting than a loss.
I probably undervalue Reitman's shot at a nod: the Academy clearly loves him, after all (see: the aforementioned, arguably undeserved Juno nod). I just can't shake the feeling that Reitman just isn't a good guy (there IS a stack of evidence mounting against him), and being a jerk can really cost not only you but your film in this race. (Hi, David Fincher! How's life been since The Curious Case of Benjamin Button tanked against Slumdog Millionaire?) He'll probably still scrape the nod, though he's probably as vulnerable as Daniels is to Clint Eastwood.
I've moved Daniels back onto the shortlist, but that's not saying much for how his chances have gotten better rather than how the others have as a group suffered, no more than Clint Eastwood. For some reason, his film Invictus just isn't setting the world on fire quite as it should have (seriously, could this thing have screamed "INSPIRATION" any louder if it tried?), and as a result, he's suffered. So Daniels is the beneficiary...for now. I still don't feel good about his chances.
What to make of Scherfig? Since Jane Campion's Bright Star fell out of favor with the precursors despite solid reviews, the former Best Director nominee (one of only three women ever) isn't likely to make it back into the big race, so Scherfig is really the only shot at another female in this race. I said long ago that there would be no more than two minority candidates in this race, so if Scherfig makes it in, it's bye-bye, Daniels. Still, he's got no worry from her. This is as hit-or-miss as Hit or Miss! gets, emphasis on the Miss!
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Bob Peterson, Up
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Hit or Miss! Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated
Boal is set. His nomination is as guaranteed as some of the most secure wins. Probably Tarantino, too, but like I said up at director, the man worries me. Neustader and Weber have a very small movie, which could spell trouble, but critical sentiment is with them. If they lose out to anybody, it'll be to Hit and Miss! Meyers, because their movies are both romantic comedies. Peterson and the brothers Coen probably are safe here, but I have some serious concerns with both of their films being a little too niche for this branch. Then again, Pixar has never had problems getting nods in this category, and the Coens were basically born for this category (though their snub for Burn After Reading last year still stings), so we'll see if I'm right to have stayed with this lineup for so long. (Spoiler? District 9's intriguing script.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Damien Paul, Precious
Nick Hornby, An Education
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Anthony Peckham, Invictus
Hit or Miss! Various Authors, In the Loop
The Hit or Miss! pick in this category was a ridiculously small movie (OUT ON DVD, HINT HINT) that had a great script, but I'm afraid the buzz is a little shallow. Otherwise, I feel really good about each of these picks. Reitman and Turner, Paul, Hornby, and Ephron shouldn't really have much trouble, but Peckham might be a victim of Invictus' recent downturn in popular support. We'll see how it turns out, and if I was right to be so confident. Maybe this year, Adapted will be my folly and Original will be my out-of-the-park home run. Anything could happen in these screwball categories.
So there's the new picks. Sorry about the brevity in the screenplay categories: nothing's really changed, and I don't know a lot about the writers, so I didn't have a lot of new perspective. What do you guys think? Any script I overlooked? Will we really see two minority directors in one year? Head to the comments!
Incidentally, these three categories are the most maddening of any (save the technical categories). Sometimes they take ugly turns: Jason Reitman's Best Director nomination for Juno despite the fact that he actually did very little for that movie, for example. Worse even is how glorified the directors' race has become compared to the undervalued, unappreciated screenplay races. (Yes, I'm biased, but I'd like to think my humanistic side would be offended at the uneven appreciation of work even if I was a director instead of a writer. Probably not.)
At any rate, the Best Director race is usually a strong indicator of the Best Picture race. Usually. With ten nominees, there's little chance that a Best Picture candidate's director won't also be nominated for Best Picture, so go ahead and throw that theory out the window. Also throw out all your predispositions that the Best Director field is only for stodgy old white men: this year is changing that (thank God). As I've mentioned, the Best Original Screenplay category is my Achilles' Heel, while I can usually get the Best Adapted Screenplay category right-on. All that said, let's take a look at the guys and gals vying for Academy voters' hearts from behind the scenes.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
Hit or Miss! Lone Scherfig, An Education
This is the newly-announced Directors' Guild of America lineup, and it looks like our lineup for the Oscars as well.
Bigelow is poised to become the fourth woman nominated for this honor and the first to win, and if there's any justice in this world, that's exactly what will happen. Her direction is what made The Hurt Locker the awards contender it is. Yes, the ensemble was impressive, and yes, the script was strong, but make no mistake: Bigelow's eagle eye for making less than fifty days on a bomb squad during the Iraq War a story for the ages is what really put it over the top.
Cameron, a former winner here for Titanic (and, ironically, ex-husband of Bigelow), is his former wife's greatest competition. He's surely an innovative and impressive filmmaker, and he has a talent for turning the idea of film on its head, but I have a serious problem with his directorial effort this time around: it's good, but not at the caliber it should have been. The writing was an absolute catastrophe, and there wasn't much plot actually needed. The whole thing reeked of "Hey, look, strange blue monkeys!"-style distraction. Don't you dare criticize the paper-thin plot, because his technological advances and directorial eye were incredible. Yes, indeed they were. But this film has been the product of 12 years worth of labor. He couldn't have gotten together better than a ramshackles for a script? This category may not directly be about writing, but he should've done better in that respect. If he had, who knows what all this movie could have won?
Boys and girls, I worry about Tarantino's health. Yes, he's an incredible director, but what kind of mind could come up with Pulp Fiction and Inglourious Basterds? A sick one, that's what. He should ably score his second nomination in this category this year, but the man's so controversial a win would be even more upsetting than a loss.
I probably undervalue Reitman's shot at a nod: the Academy clearly loves him, after all (see: the aforementioned, arguably undeserved Juno nod). I just can't shake the feeling that Reitman just isn't a good guy (there IS a stack of evidence mounting against him), and being a jerk can really cost not only you but your film in this race. (Hi, David Fincher! How's life been since The Curious Case of Benjamin Button tanked against Slumdog Millionaire?) He'll probably still scrape the nod, though he's probably as vulnerable as Daniels is to Clint Eastwood.
I've moved Daniels back onto the shortlist, but that's not saying much for how his chances have gotten better rather than how the others have as a group suffered, no more than Clint Eastwood. For some reason, his film Invictus just isn't setting the world on fire quite as it should have (seriously, could this thing have screamed "INSPIRATION" any louder if it tried?), and as a result, he's suffered. So Daniels is the beneficiary...for now. I still don't feel good about his chances.
What to make of Scherfig? Since Jane Campion's Bright Star fell out of favor with the precursors despite solid reviews, the former Best Director nominee (one of only three women ever) isn't likely to make it back into the big race, so Scherfig is really the only shot at another female in this race. I said long ago that there would be no more than two minority candidates in this race, so if Scherfig makes it in, it's bye-bye, Daniels. Still, he's got no worry from her. This is as hit-or-miss as Hit or Miss! gets, emphasis on the Miss!
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Bob Peterson, Up
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Hit or Miss! Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated
Boal is set. His nomination is as guaranteed as some of the most secure wins. Probably Tarantino, too, but like I said up at director, the man worries me. Neustader and Weber have a very small movie, which could spell trouble, but critical sentiment is with them. If they lose out to anybody, it'll be to Hit and Miss! Meyers, because their movies are both romantic comedies. Peterson and the brothers Coen probably are safe here, but I have some serious concerns with both of their films being a little too niche for this branch. Then again, Pixar has never had problems getting nods in this category, and the Coens were basically born for this category (though their snub for Burn After Reading last year still stings), so we'll see if I'm right to have stayed with this lineup for so long. (Spoiler? District 9's intriguing script.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Damien Paul, Precious
Nick Hornby, An Education
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Anthony Peckham, Invictus
Hit or Miss! Various Authors, In the Loop
The Hit or Miss! pick in this category was a ridiculously small movie (OUT ON DVD, HINT HINT) that had a great script, but I'm afraid the buzz is a little shallow. Otherwise, I feel really good about each of these picks. Reitman and Turner, Paul, Hornby, and Ephron shouldn't really have much trouble, but Peckham might be a victim of Invictus' recent downturn in popular support. We'll see how it turns out, and if I was right to be so confident. Maybe this year, Adapted will be my folly and Original will be my out-of-the-park home run. Anything could happen in these screwball categories.
So there's the new picks. Sorry about the brevity in the screenplay categories: nothing's really changed, and I don't know a lot about the writers, so I didn't have a lot of new perspective. What do you guys think? Any script I overlooked? Will we really see two minority directors in one year? Head to the comments!
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Who is this 'Meryl Streep' Anyway?
As promised, this week's Oscarology post is brought to you by the letter 'A,' as in 'actor.' Let's face it, we live in a world of boldfaced names and celebrity that keeps us most interested in the acting awards above all others. Yes, it's nice that Kathryn Bigelow is going to be the first female Best Director Oscar winner in, well, ever, but will she be on the front cover of Entertainment Weekly this week? Hardly. (That honor belongs to Up in the Air stars George Clooney, Vera Farmiga, and Anna Kendrick, by the way.)
However, this year is odd, because of the number of probable nominees who are virtually unknown and have never been nominated for an Oscar before. 13 out of 20 nominees as predicted by yours truly have never heard their name called at oh-God-hundred by the Academy president and a pretty, random celebrity. Nonetheless, the acting categories remain the focus, and at least two of the races are pretty hotly contested. The other two? Well, let's just say that eight actors don't really need to show up on Oscar night expecting to win.
Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Hit or Miss! Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Disappointingly, this race has been predictable all along this precursor season, and not only that, but the performances aren't that great. The same goes for Supporting Actor, but at least there's one incredible standout in that race. The female acting categories definitely have the advantage over the males this year.
Clooney's performance as corporate ax-man Ryan Bingham isn't quite as stirring as many are calling it (I'd call it serviceable, quite frankly; without the stunning script and fantastic work of the two women next to him every step of the way, it wouldn't have made much impact), however, he has the star gravitas and the goodwill from Syriana and Michael Clayton going for him. Still, I do want to say this: George Clooney isn't half the actor his fellow would-be nominees are. He's a pretty face and does a decent job, but he's not a true artist.
Bridges' performance I have not seen yet (when a movie hasn't even really been released anywhere but LA you can understand why), but I have to say this: I'm growing a little tired of the "strong men can cry" inspiration-type performances so common here. (See: Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain and Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler.) Trust me, I know that more than a few disagree with me, especially in regard to Rourke. But I just can't shake how annoyed I get with such performances.
Firth is lucky that he gave an incredible performance in a movie that rings a little too "student work," because he elevates the medium, and nothing turns the Academy on like a good medium elevation. Again, the film hasn't really been released, so I haven't gotten to see it, but Firth's performance is exactly what Brokeback and Milk fans love oh so dearly.
Freeman has a formula: play God-like character (in two cases, God himself) with a commanding voice and get critical plaudits. I loved Freeman in Driving Miss Daisy, and I kinda wish he'd go back to those types of performances, because as much as Freeman was made to play Nelson Mandela, this one just feels so Oscar baity.
Renner would be my winner of these five, but keep in mind that he's a low-wattage star in a low-wattage film. Up against four ridiculously bright stars, he's (sadly) out of luck. Still, his performance as a bomb tech and adrenaline junkie in Iraq is really stunning. Combined with Bigelow's excellent direction and a terrific supporting cast, Renner really made the film something special.
Day-Lewis, my Hit or Miss! pick, was truly the worst part of Nine. By a country mile. He couldn't wrap his mind around Guido Contini (guess that Method acting fails sometimes), and I honestly don't remember a worse performance from Day-Lewis. (The original pick for this role, Javier Bardem, would have been so much better.) So why is he a Hit or Miss? Simple: He's Daniel Day-Lewis. The man who abandoned his child and drank our milkshake only two years ago in what some called a 'masterpiece' film, There Will Be Blood. (I'll reserve my rant on that movie.) His star appeal might help him coast into the final five, especially in this weak of a year.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Hit or Miss! Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
I'm pretty lonely out here in left field predicting Blunt over Helen Mirren, but I really don't think The Queen has a shot. In fact, I wouldn't even put her in sixth place.
Who is this 'Meryl Streep' character, anyway? She always gets critical fawning, but I just don't know what she's done that's worth half a damn. Kidding. The truth is that once again, Streep turned in another ridiculously good performance (actually, including It's Complicated, pair of performances), her third in four years. Whether she's imitating an icon or creating a new character all her own, Streep is truly a masterful actor, definitely the greatest alive and possibly the greatest of all time (she has to fight four-time Oscar winner Katharine Hepburn for that title), and I think critical sentiment is pushing for a third career win for the to-be 16-time nominee.
Let me take Mulligan's section to just rave about An Education a little bit. This thing is by far the Doubt of this year: the incredibly well-acted, well-written prestige film that goes almost completely ignored by major organizations because it isn't a pop culture phenomenon (Up in the Air), a directing marvel (The Hurt Locker), big and loud (Inglourious Basterds), a technical marvel (Avatar) or a R-rated melisma of cursing, violence, and sexual abuse (Precious). No, instead, Education, with the brilliant Mulligan as its star, is getting its plaudits only for the central actress, which is a shame. Yes, she's fantastic, and a win for her is well-deserved, but what about all the other elements of the movie that were so stunning? It truly is a shame that Education is only coasting into the Best Picture race on the 10-wide field. At least the superb Mulligan will get noticed here, though Sidibe and Streep are going to give her a run for her money.
Sidibe is truly awe-inspiring as the titular character in Precious, and I would actually love to see her win, but she's almost too natural in the role. I'm afraid the Ellen Page/Juno "is she the same?" affliction will befall Sidibe's chances here. Her best shot is at the Golden Globes, but will something unexpected happen there? See Blunt's section for more on that.
Bullock's nomination is the win here, I'm afraid. Yes, she is fun as Leigh Anne Tuhoy, a real-life hoot-and-a-half, but the performance lacks a gravitas necessary to win at the Oscars as well as the necessary screen time. "But Kevin," you say, "She's in almost the whole movie!" Ah, yes, but there are several key scenes (the beginning phases, the shooting scene) where she not only does not appear, but isn't even an off-screen presence. That's a tough hurdle for a Lead Actress contender to overcome. She's not really supporting, but she's not really lead. She does a damn good job at whatever she does, but it isn't good enough to beat the incredible Streep, Mulligan, or Sidibe. The fact that she's rallied so well and beaten out Helen Mirren as an Oscar lock is pretty admirable in and of itself.
It's risky, placing a bet on someone who's never been nominated for an Oscar based on a performance that never really gained any traction up until the recent nominations. Not only that, but Blunt has Mirren, Marion Cotillard, and a category-confused Melanie Laurent nipping at her heels. However, Cotillard's movie got ravaged by critics, Mirren's movie wasn't ever really released, and Laurent, like I said, is category-confused. Her part in Inglourious Basterds isn't enough to scrape a nod here. So that just leaves the simple task of actually doing enough to get nominated. Like Mirren's film, Blunt's never really made much of an impact on release. Still, it's a movie about royals (1 point), her performance is critically lauded (2 points), and she's scored Golden Globe (3) and Critics' Choice (4) Award nominations for the performance. It's a risk picking her, but I feel good about her chances. To paraphrase Dr. Chase from House, "The other choices suck worse."
What to make of Saoirse Ronan? The girl's so young (only 15! Taylor Swift wrote a song about that age as if it were some time ago, and she's only 20), but she's the best part of a terrible movie and her track record with Oscar is good (first nomination at 13 = great track record). I want her to be nominated for the historical aspect of it all, and with the fifth spot so vulnerable she could upset, but I doubt it, sadly. No, if this is going to any younger actress, it'll be Blunt, unless Oscar voters are feeling very generous.
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Hit or Miss! Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
In case it hasn't been made obvious before, this is Waltz's award already. His multilingual, sinful performance in Basterds is the stuff of film legend. He's genius as an evil genius, and the precursors (almost) all agree: he's a winner. The only one to beat him in any early contest (and there's only been one) was Harrelson.
A few weeks ago, Harrelson wasn't even on anyone's radar. Alfred Molina had his spot on my list, as well as most others'. He's truly come out of nowhere, and I feel like that's primarily because of goodwill from Zombieland as well as an enduring career. He won the National Board of Review Best Supporting Actor award, but I feel that'll probably be his last; this isn't his best performance, and the movie is tiny. He deserves the nomination, but not the win.
It's tough to win an Oscar when you're not devoted to campaigning, and Damon really couldn't care less about this award. He's probably seen his competition (read: Waltz) and decided the nomination is the win this year. Smart man. He's nailed Francois Pineaar's South African accent for this performance, but almost no one is that excited about Invictus. He could probably be playing Nelson Mandela in this movie instead and no one would look twice. It's a snoozer role.
Tucci does fantastic work always, but this isn't his best work, even this year. I really wish he would get the nomination for Julie & Julia, but he's subtle in that movie, and as Jennifer Garner and Rosemarie DeWitt found out the last two years for Juno and Rachel Getting Married, subtle don't play. He's ridiculously over-the-top in Bones, and Oscar voters prefer the ostentatious, so the nomination is gonna come for this rather terrible flick.
What to make of Plummer's campaign? The Last Station has been almost invisible this year, and the fact that it has any awards traction whatsoever is a bit surprising to me. Yes, Plummer has had an enduring career, and playing Leo Tolstoy is baity, but I just don't get this movie or the buzz for its actors. I still don't think this nod is likely, and it most definitely isn't locked. It doesn't have the feeling of certainty that Hal Holbrook's "career" nod did two years ago, and a lot of people loved Into the Wild. Not so much for Station.
McKay's a breakout star in Me and Orson Welles as the titular thespian, and his performance is fun, inventive, and attention-grabbing (which is more than I can say of Tucci, Damon, and Plummer's roles...). However, the buzz for the role is dying out quickly, and this is only McKay's second film (yes, yes, I know it's only Sidibe's first, and that Jennifer Hudson won an Oscar for her first role in Dreamgirls, but those are what we call "extraordinary circumstances"). With the more boring competitors hogging all the precursor awards, I'd bet we're going to have to suffer through a McKay-less Best Supporting Actor competition. Too bad, too. He's the only one who could really give Waltz a good race.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Hit or Miss! Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique is as locked into the win as Christoph Waltz is for his category. The role is an absolute winner, her performance is stunning and a true marvel, and the hype from Sundance to Toronto to the year-end best lists has been undying. Don't believe any of the negative buzz. When the top Oscarologists were polled last month by Gurus of Gold, an awesome collection of pundits that play this fun Oscarology game, about the Supporting Actress race, each and every one put Mo'Nique solidly in first place. That didn't happen with any other competitior in any other race, not even Waltz. She's in and done.
Kendrick is truly marvelous in Air, playing corporate chipmunk Natalie Keener. She's by far the best actor in the film and probably the best part of the film (raise your hand if the hysterical crying scene and basically everything that came afterward up to her off-key rendition of "Time After Time" made you die laughing), but this isn't her year. She's shown tremendous promise, and any other year I would love to see her get her golden statue on Oscar night, but this is Mo'Nique's year.
Farmiga wasn't my favorite part about Up in the Air, but she was still quite good. Her big character shift near the middle rivals Jennifer Garner's in Juno two years ago, but it's a great negative shift as opposed to Garner's positive one. I still wonder if she'll have some trouble getting nominated with Kendrick also involved, but things have gone her way throughout the precursors, so she should be fine. Of course, she'll lose to Mo'Nique, but it's always an honor to be nominated.
Cruz is being dropped off of Oscarologists' lists everywhere, which puzzles me. She's been nominated by SAG, the BFCA, and by the Globes, and critics, though they blasted her movie, actually liked her quite a bit in it. Her Vicky Cristina Barcelona role was quite similar to this one, and they gave her the trophy for that role, but then again, her strongest competition last year was a woman with a ten minute scene (Viola Davis). Unlike other Oscarologists, I do think she'll get the nomination, but again, she'll lose to Mo'Nique. (Notice a pattern here, folks?)
Moore's nomination once looked like much more of a sure thing than it does now. She does a great job, but it's a small role in a small movie, and she's way overshadowed by Colin Firth. Getting snubbed by SAG, which is usually the greatest indicator of the acting races, hurts, but their choice, Diane Kruger, less-than-inspiring as Bridget Von Hammersmark in Inglourious Basterds, isn't going to get the nomination. Moore should get this final spot, but again, she'll lose to--oh, you know.
Laurent was the George Clooney of Inglourious Basterds: she did serviceable work in a fairly easy role. You gotta admire the bilinguality of the role, but everyone in Basterds pulled that off (well, not Brad Pitt, but that's part of the reason why you don't see his name on this list). She could make it on this list, but it's a risk, and one that won't pay off, because she'll lose to Mo'Nique.
Well, that's about as deep an analysis of the acting races as you'll find on the net today. Things look pretty set in most of these, with at least three sure things on each list. Still, I would say that Renner, Blunt, Plummer, Cruz, and Moore should be very careful, as they are the five most vulnerable on these lists. If anyone gets left off, it'll be one (or more) of those five.
Got any feelings on any particular race? Wondering why Tobey Maguire suddenly disappeared off the Best Actor list? Got any thoughts about Marion Cotillard's category fraud and where she'll finally be put if she indeed makes it into the final cut? Take it to the comments! Next week, I'll examine the Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay categories, the second of which is sure to be a hot mess. Hoo boy.
However, this year is odd, because of the number of probable nominees who are virtually unknown and have never been nominated for an Oscar before. 13 out of 20 nominees as predicted by yours truly have never heard their name called at oh-God-hundred by the Academy president and a pretty, random celebrity. Nonetheless, the acting categories remain the focus, and at least two of the races are pretty hotly contested. The other two? Well, let's just say that eight actors don't really need to show up on Oscar night expecting to win.
Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Hit or Miss! Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Disappointingly, this race has been predictable all along this precursor season, and not only that, but the performances aren't that great. The same goes for Supporting Actor, but at least there's one incredible standout in that race. The female acting categories definitely have the advantage over the males this year.
Clooney's performance as corporate ax-man Ryan Bingham isn't quite as stirring as many are calling it (I'd call it serviceable, quite frankly; without the stunning script and fantastic work of the two women next to him every step of the way, it wouldn't have made much impact), however, he has the star gravitas and the goodwill from Syriana and Michael Clayton going for him. Still, I do want to say this: George Clooney isn't half the actor his fellow would-be nominees are. He's a pretty face and does a decent job, but he's not a true artist.
Bridges' performance I have not seen yet (when a movie hasn't even really been released anywhere but LA you can understand why), but I have to say this: I'm growing a little tired of the "strong men can cry" inspiration-type performances so common here. (See: Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain and Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler.) Trust me, I know that more than a few disagree with me, especially in regard to Rourke. But I just can't shake how annoyed I get with such performances.
Firth is lucky that he gave an incredible performance in a movie that rings a little too "student work," because he elevates the medium, and nothing turns the Academy on like a good medium elevation. Again, the film hasn't really been released, so I haven't gotten to see it, but Firth's performance is exactly what Brokeback and Milk fans love oh so dearly.
Freeman has a formula: play God-like character (in two cases, God himself) with a commanding voice and get critical plaudits. I loved Freeman in Driving Miss Daisy, and I kinda wish he'd go back to those types of performances, because as much as Freeman was made to play Nelson Mandela, this one just feels so Oscar baity.
Renner would be my winner of these five, but keep in mind that he's a low-wattage star in a low-wattage film. Up against four ridiculously bright stars, he's (sadly) out of luck. Still, his performance as a bomb tech and adrenaline junkie in Iraq is really stunning. Combined with Bigelow's excellent direction and a terrific supporting cast, Renner really made the film something special.
Day-Lewis, my Hit or Miss! pick, was truly the worst part of Nine. By a country mile. He couldn't wrap his mind around Guido Contini (guess that Method acting fails sometimes), and I honestly don't remember a worse performance from Day-Lewis. (The original pick for this role, Javier Bardem, would have been so much better.) So why is he a Hit or Miss? Simple: He's Daniel Day-Lewis. The man who abandoned his child and drank our milkshake only two years ago in what some called a 'masterpiece' film, There Will Be Blood. (I'll reserve my rant on that movie.) His star appeal might help him coast into the final five, especially in this weak of a year.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Hit or Miss! Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
I'm pretty lonely out here in left field predicting Blunt over Helen Mirren, but I really don't think The Queen has a shot. In fact, I wouldn't even put her in sixth place.
Who is this 'Meryl Streep' character, anyway? She always gets critical fawning, but I just don't know what she's done that's worth half a damn. Kidding. The truth is that once again, Streep turned in another ridiculously good performance (actually, including It's Complicated, pair of performances), her third in four years. Whether she's imitating an icon or creating a new character all her own, Streep is truly a masterful actor, definitely the greatest alive and possibly the greatest of all time (she has to fight four-time Oscar winner Katharine Hepburn for that title), and I think critical sentiment is pushing for a third career win for the to-be 16-time nominee.
Let me take Mulligan's section to just rave about An Education a little bit. This thing is by far the Doubt of this year: the incredibly well-acted, well-written prestige film that goes almost completely ignored by major organizations because it isn't a pop culture phenomenon (Up in the Air), a directing marvel (The Hurt Locker), big and loud (Inglourious Basterds), a technical marvel (Avatar) or a R-rated melisma of cursing, violence, and sexual abuse (Precious). No, instead, Education, with the brilliant Mulligan as its star, is getting its plaudits only for the central actress, which is a shame. Yes, she's fantastic, and a win for her is well-deserved, but what about all the other elements of the movie that were so stunning? It truly is a shame that Education is only coasting into the Best Picture race on the 10-wide field. At least the superb Mulligan will get noticed here, though Sidibe and Streep are going to give her a run for her money.
Sidibe is truly awe-inspiring as the titular character in Precious, and I would actually love to see her win, but she's almost too natural in the role. I'm afraid the Ellen Page/Juno "is she the same?" affliction will befall Sidibe's chances here. Her best shot is at the Golden Globes, but will something unexpected happen there? See Blunt's section for more on that.
Bullock's nomination is the win here, I'm afraid. Yes, she is fun as Leigh Anne Tuhoy, a real-life hoot-and-a-half, but the performance lacks a gravitas necessary to win at the Oscars as well as the necessary screen time. "But Kevin," you say, "She's in almost the whole movie!" Ah, yes, but there are several key scenes (the beginning phases, the shooting scene) where she not only does not appear, but isn't even an off-screen presence. That's a tough hurdle for a Lead Actress contender to overcome. She's not really supporting, but she's not really lead. She does a damn good job at whatever she does, but it isn't good enough to beat the incredible Streep, Mulligan, or Sidibe. The fact that she's rallied so well and beaten out Helen Mirren as an Oscar lock is pretty admirable in and of itself.
It's risky, placing a bet on someone who's never been nominated for an Oscar based on a performance that never really gained any traction up until the recent nominations. Not only that, but Blunt has Mirren, Marion Cotillard, and a category-confused Melanie Laurent nipping at her heels. However, Cotillard's movie got ravaged by critics, Mirren's movie wasn't ever really released, and Laurent, like I said, is category-confused. Her part in Inglourious Basterds isn't enough to scrape a nod here. So that just leaves the simple task of actually doing enough to get nominated. Like Mirren's film, Blunt's never really made much of an impact on release. Still, it's a movie about royals (1 point), her performance is critically lauded (2 points), and she's scored Golden Globe (3) and Critics' Choice (4) Award nominations for the performance. It's a risk picking her, but I feel good about her chances. To paraphrase Dr. Chase from House, "The other choices suck worse."
What to make of Saoirse Ronan? The girl's so young (only 15! Taylor Swift wrote a song about that age as if it were some time ago, and she's only 20), but she's the best part of a terrible movie and her track record with Oscar is good (first nomination at 13 = great track record). I want her to be nominated for the historical aspect of it all, and with the fifth spot so vulnerable she could upset, but I doubt it, sadly. No, if this is going to any younger actress, it'll be Blunt, unless Oscar voters are feeling very generous.
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Hit or Miss! Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
In case it hasn't been made obvious before, this is Waltz's award already. His multilingual, sinful performance in Basterds is the stuff of film legend. He's genius as an evil genius, and the precursors (almost) all agree: he's a winner. The only one to beat him in any early contest (and there's only been one) was Harrelson.
A few weeks ago, Harrelson wasn't even on anyone's radar. Alfred Molina had his spot on my list, as well as most others'. He's truly come out of nowhere, and I feel like that's primarily because of goodwill from Zombieland as well as an enduring career. He won the National Board of Review Best Supporting Actor award, but I feel that'll probably be his last; this isn't his best performance, and the movie is tiny. He deserves the nomination, but not the win.
It's tough to win an Oscar when you're not devoted to campaigning, and Damon really couldn't care less about this award. He's probably seen his competition (read: Waltz) and decided the nomination is the win this year. Smart man. He's nailed Francois Pineaar's South African accent for this performance, but almost no one is that excited about Invictus. He could probably be playing Nelson Mandela in this movie instead and no one would look twice. It's a snoozer role.
Tucci does fantastic work always, but this isn't his best work, even this year. I really wish he would get the nomination for Julie & Julia, but he's subtle in that movie, and as Jennifer Garner and Rosemarie DeWitt found out the last two years for Juno and Rachel Getting Married, subtle don't play. He's ridiculously over-the-top in Bones, and Oscar voters prefer the ostentatious, so the nomination is gonna come for this rather terrible flick.
What to make of Plummer's campaign? The Last Station has been almost invisible this year, and the fact that it has any awards traction whatsoever is a bit surprising to me. Yes, Plummer has had an enduring career, and playing Leo Tolstoy is baity, but I just don't get this movie or the buzz for its actors. I still don't think this nod is likely, and it most definitely isn't locked. It doesn't have the feeling of certainty that Hal Holbrook's "career" nod did two years ago, and a lot of people loved Into the Wild. Not so much for Station.
McKay's a breakout star in Me and Orson Welles as the titular thespian, and his performance is fun, inventive, and attention-grabbing (which is more than I can say of Tucci, Damon, and Plummer's roles...). However, the buzz for the role is dying out quickly, and this is only McKay's second film (yes, yes, I know it's only Sidibe's first, and that Jennifer Hudson won an Oscar for her first role in Dreamgirls, but those are what we call "extraordinary circumstances"). With the more boring competitors hogging all the precursor awards, I'd bet we're going to have to suffer through a McKay-less Best Supporting Actor competition. Too bad, too. He's the only one who could really give Waltz a good race.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Hit or Miss! Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique is as locked into the win as Christoph Waltz is for his category. The role is an absolute winner, her performance is stunning and a true marvel, and the hype from Sundance to Toronto to the year-end best lists has been undying. Don't believe any of the negative buzz. When the top Oscarologists were polled last month by Gurus of Gold, an awesome collection of pundits that play this fun Oscarology game, about the Supporting Actress race, each and every one put Mo'Nique solidly in first place. That didn't happen with any other competitior in any other race, not even Waltz. She's in and done.
Kendrick is truly marvelous in Air, playing corporate chipmunk Natalie Keener. She's by far the best actor in the film and probably the best part of the film (raise your hand if the hysterical crying scene and basically everything that came afterward up to her off-key rendition of "Time After Time" made you die laughing), but this isn't her year. She's shown tremendous promise, and any other year I would love to see her get her golden statue on Oscar night, but this is Mo'Nique's year.
Farmiga wasn't my favorite part about Up in the Air, but she was still quite good. Her big character shift near the middle rivals Jennifer Garner's in Juno two years ago, but it's a great negative shift as opposed to Garner's positive one. I still wonder if she'll have some trouble getting nominated with Kendrick also involved, but things have gone her way throughout the precursors, so she should be fine. Of course, she'll lose to Mo'Nique, but it's always an honor to be nominated.
Cruz is being dropped off of Oscarologists' lists everywhere, which puzzles me. She's been nominated by SAG, the BFCA, and by the Globes, and critics, though they blasted her movie, actually liked her quite a bit in it. Her Vicky Cristina Barcelona role was quite similar to this one, and they gave her the trophy for that role, but then again, her strongest competition last year was a woman with a ten minute scene (Viola Davis). Unlike other Oscarologists, I do think she'll get the nomination, but again, she'll lose to Mo'Nique. (Notice a pattern here, folks?)
Moore's nomination once looked like much more of a sure thing than it does now. She does a great job, but it's a small role in a small movie, and she's way overshadowed by Colin Firth. Getting snubbed by SAG, which is usually the greatest indicator of the acting races, hurts, but their choice, Diane Kruger, less-than-inspiring as Bridget Von Hammersmark in Inglourious Basterds, isn't going to get the nomination. Moore should get this final spot, but again, she'll lose to--oh, you know.
Laurent was the George Clooney of Inglourious Basterds: she did serviceable work in a fairly easy role. You gotta admire the bilinguality of the role, but everyone in Basterds pulled that off (well, not Brad Pitt, but that's part of the reason why you don't see his name on this list). She could make it on this list, but it's a risk, and one that won't pay off, because she'll lose to Mo'Nique.
Well, that's about as deep an analysis of the acting races as you'll find on the net today. Things look pretty set in most of these, with at least three sure things on each list. Still, I would say that Renner, Blunt, Plummer, Cruz, and Moore should be very careful, as they are the five most vulnerable on these lists. If anyone gets left off, it'll be one (or more) of those five.
Got any feelings on any particular race? Wondering why Tobey Maguire suddenly disappeared off the Best Actor list? Got any thoughts about Marion Cotillard's category fraud and where she'll finally be put if she indeed makes it into the final cut? Take it to the comments! Next week, I'll examine the Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay categories, the second of which is sure to be a hot mess. Hoo boy.
Friday, December 25, 2009
Merry Oscars!
Christmas this year has been great, with family time not grating on my nerves too badly, work yesterday actually ending on time, and seeing a few movies here and there. However, it is Friday, so it's Oscar Post time!
Not a whole lot of new has happened this week, but things are starting to come into focus. I'll also introduce my "Hit or Miss" picks, which are selections that are risky, but could wind up paying off.
Precursors, critics, and Oscarologists are all falling into the same pattern of films and performances being chosen over and over again. I'll have none of that. This race is hardly sewn up, and with a little over a month left before nomination announcements, there's still time to be surprised.
Best Picture
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Avatar
Invictus
An Education
Nine
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Hit or Miss! (500) Days of Summer
An Education and Nine are starting to rally back, despite fading buzz and harsh reviews, respectively. I've now lost all faith in Up. I thought for sure it would be a lock for a nomination, but then the buzz has started slowly slipping away... Will it vote-split here with The Princess and the Frog and The Fantastic Mr. Fox? As much as I don't think it will happen, I've moved both A Single/Serious Man onto the list, but it still seems implausible. The Last Station could redeem itself, but that movie has a whole other host of problems (see: Best Actress), so I'm going with this for now. The "Hit or Miss" pick, (500) Days of Summer, isn't as great a movie as it's been made out to be, but precursors really like it, so look for it to possibly spoil.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Hit or Miss! Lone Scherfig, An Education
Hmm... is this one really as sewn-up as it would seem? Was I wrong to knock Lee Daniels off? Does Scherfig really have a chance? It would be cool to have two female directors nominated in one year, but Scherfig's reviews weren't as stellar as her star's... Eastwood's the most vulnerable on this list, as no one is really that excited about Invictus, but I'd consider the top four locked up.
Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Hit or Miss! Tobey Maguire, Brothers
Bridges' press might be overblown, as most of the precursors actually went for Clooney, so despite most pundits putting the Crazy Heart star first, I'm sticking to my guns with the biggest movie star on earth in the number one spot. Firth's buzz is slowing, and Freeman's never really got off the ground. Renner won't win, but neither will Maguire, so I'm going with the more likely option. At this point, it's all about coming for the show, not playing to win.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Hit or Miss! Helen Mirren, The Last Station
I'm starting to think Mirren isn't really anywhere near the type of lock most thought she would be. The Globe nod for Blunt leads me to think they'll latch onto her. Here's what's for sure, though: Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe, and Bullock are locked and loaded. Nothing's budging them, save a miracle.
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Matt Damon, Invictus
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Hit or Miss! Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
What the hell happened to Alfred Molina? For the longest time, he looked like the only sure thing on this list, but now, he's dropped off completely due to precursor total disinterest. I hope he makes it on, but I don't really consider him a contender anymore. Again, this is Waltz' trophy already, but Tucci and Harrelson are gaining ground. Too bad the best they'll do is second place. Damon's being discounted by more than a few pundits, even though he's racked up precursor awards and nominations like no tomorrow. I just don't see The Last Station being a big player in any category, much less this one. I feel like Plummer is going to lose his spot to McKay for his fun, inventive performance, or to Molina.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Hit or Miss! Mariah Carey, Precious
Best Supporting Actress (AKA The Mo'Nique Award) is one of those categories that this year especially is getting so marred by category fraud it's almost seeming impossible to distinguish. Farmiga, Laurent, and Nine's Marion Cotillard have all tried at least once to go lead, each of which was an epic failure. Laurent is great in Basterds; she probably deserves the nomination, plus the buzz for the film has really been ratcheting up, but should she worry about splitting votes with SAG Award nominee Diane Kruger for the same movie? Cotillard has no chance here, as her category fraud is just too ridiculous. It may have finally worked out for Kate Winslet last year, but Marion Cotillard is not Kate Winslet. Cruz is looking lock-ish, and Farmiga, Kendrick, and (of course) Mo'Nique are all locks. Carey's a shot in the dark, as she has always been. Julianne Moore, by the way, fell by the wayside due to the lack of support from SAG. She could probably still edge out Laurent, but that's a bad organization to be stiffed by...
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson, Up
Hit or Miss! Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated
I'm feeling good about this category...and that scares me. It's all feeling a little too lock-ish for me. Where's the out-of-nowhere In Bruges-type nomination? This is too pat for my tastes. Even my "Hit or Miss" seems too typical.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Damien Paul, Precious
Nick Hornby, An Education
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Anthony Peckham, Invictus
Hit or Miss! Various Authors, In the Loop
And this one is done. The Globes' nominations didn't really destroy the chances for any film here, so the list is the same.
Best Animated Feature
Up
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Coraline
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Hit or Miss! Ponyo
Please understand that I don't bear any ill will towards Ponyo. But getting snubbed by the Globes? That's just plain terrible. Meatballs is a commercial success, as well as a surprise critical hit. And it got nominated at the Globes. Bye-bye, Ponyo.
We're still a month away from the nominations, so this could take a whole lot of turns. Next week, I'll more closely examine the acting races, followed by the direction and screenplay categories the next week, then the specialty categories (documentary, animated film, foreign film), and finally, a look at that big green monster known as the Best Picture categories. Playtime is over, kiddies. Oscarology becomes a serious game now.
Not a whole lot of new has happened this week, but things are starting to come into focus. I'll also introduce my "Hit or Miss" picks, which are selections that are risky, but could wind up paying off.
Precursors, critics, and Oscarologists are all falling into the same pattern of films and performances being chosen over and over again. I'll have none of that. This race is hardly sewn up, and with a little over a month left before nomination announcements, there's still time to be surprised.
Best Picture
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Avatar
Invictus
An Education
Nine
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Hit or Miss! (500) Days of Summer
An Education and Nine are starting to rally back, despite fading buzz and harsh reviews, respectively. I've now lost all faith in Up. I thought for sure it would be a lock for a nomination, but then the buzz has started slowly slipping away... Will it vote-split here with The Princess and the Frog and The Fantastic Mr. Fox? As much as I don't think it will happen, I've moved both A Single/Serious Man onto the list, but it still seems implausible. The Last Station could redeem itself, but that movie has a whole other host of problems (see: Best Actress), so I'm going with this for now. The "Hit or Miss" pick, (500) Days of Summer, isn't as great a movie as it's been made out to be, but precursors really like it, so look for it to possibly spoil.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Hit or Miss! Lone Scherfig, An Education
Hmm... is this one really as sewn-up as it would seem? Was I wrong to knock Lee Daniels off? Does Scherfig really have a chance? It would be cool to have two female directors nominated in one year, but Scherfig's reviews weren't as stellar as her star's... Eastwood's the most vulnerable on this list, as no one is really that excited about Invictus, but I'd consider the top four locked up.
Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Hit or Miss! Tobey Maguire, Brothers
Bridges' press might be overblown, as most of the precursors actually went for Clooney, so despite most pundits putting the Crazy Heart star first, I'm sticking to my guns with the biggest movie star on earth in the number one spot. Firth's buzz is slowing, and Freeman's never really got off the ground. Renner won't win, but neither will Maguire, so I'm going with the more likely option. At this point, it's all about coming for the show, not playing to win.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Hit or Miss! Helen Mirren, The Last Station
I'm starting to think Mirren isn't really anywhere near the type of lock most thought she would be. The Globe nod for Blunt leads me to think they'll latch onto her. Here's what's for sure, though: Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe, and Bullock are locked and loaded. Nothing's budging them, save a miracle.
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Matt Damon, Invictus
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Hit or Miss! Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
What the hell happened to Alfred Molina? For the longest time, he looked like the only sure thing on this list, but now, he's dropped off completely due to precursor total disinterest. I hope he makes it on, but I don't really consider him a contender anymore. Again, this is Waltz' trophy already, but Tucci and Harrelson are gaining ground. Too bad the best they'll do is second place. Damon's being discounted by more than a few pundits, even though he's racked up precursor awards and nominations like no tomorrow. I just don't see The Last Station being a big player in any category, much less this one. I feel like Plummer is going to lose his spot to McKay for his fun, inventive performance, or to Molina.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Hit or Miss! Mariah Carey, Precious
Best Supporting Actress (AKA The Mo'Nique Award) is one of those categories that this year especially is getting so marred by category fraud it's almost seeming impossible to distinguish. Farmiga, Laurent, and Nine's Marion Cotillard have all tried at least once to go lead, each of which was an epic failure. Laurent is great in Basterds; she probably deserves the nomination, plus the buzz for the film has really been ratcheting up, but should she worry about splitting votes with SAG Award nominee Diane Kruger for the same movie? Cotillard has no chance here, as her category fraud is just too ridiculous. It may have finally worked out for Kate Winslet last year, but Marion Cotillard is not Kate Winslet. Cruz is looking lock-ish, and Farmiga, Kendrick, and (of course) Mo'Nique are all locks. Carey's a shot in the dark, as she has always been. Julianne Moore, by the way, fell by the wayside due to the lack of support from SAG. She could probably still edge out Laurent, but that's a bad organization to be stiffed by...
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson, Up
Hit or Miss! Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated
I'm feeling good about this category...and that scares me. It's all feeling a little too lock-ish for me. Where's the out-of-nowhere In Bruges-type nomination? This is too pat for my tastes. Even my "Hit or Miss" seems too typical.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Damien Paul, Precious
Nick Hornby, An Education
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Anthony Peckham, Invictus
Hit or Miss! Various Authors, In the Loop
And this one is done. The Globes' nominations didn't really destroy the chances for any film here, so the list is the same.
Best Animated Feature
Up
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Coraline
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Hit or Miss! Ponyo
Please understand that I don't bear any ill will towards Ponyo. But getting snubbed by the Globes? That's just plain terrible. Meatballs is a commercial success, as well as a surprise critical hit. And it got nominated at the Globes. Bye-bye, Ponyo.
We're still a month away from the nominations, so this could take a whole lot of turns. Next week, I'll more closely examine the acting races, followed by the direction and screenplay categories the next week, then the specialty categories (documentary, animated film, foreign film), and finally, a look at that big green monster known as the Best Picture categories. Playtime is over, kiddies. Oscarology becomes a serious game now.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Golden Globes Turn Oscar's World Upside Down
The Golden Globe nominations have been announced, so obviously, analysis is expected. Well, you're getting it, but not like you'd think.
Since this is first and foremost an Oscar blog, instead of trying to analyze the Golden Globe categories, I'll simply update my predictions based on what the Globes did, as well as several critics' groups and, my personal favorite organization, the Broadcast Film Critics Association, picked.
Best Picture
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Avatar
Invictus
A Serious Man
Up
An Education
Nine
All of a sudden, I'm thinking An Education is gonna have a hard time scraping a nod here. I was stupid to eliminate Nine and A Serious Man... call it spur-of-the-moment craziness. However, I'm still skeptical about both--is the buzz really worth nominations? Serious got shut out of the Globes, but major critics organizations are falling in love with it, so who knows... Up lost a couple of critics' prizes for Best Animated Feature, which only serves to make it more vulnerable. I really don't feel good about the bottom four picks: they just don't seem solid. The Last Station's buzz disappeared, so it's gone, too.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels couldn't hang onto buzz, so he's off for Tarantino. Bigelow looks undefeatable, which kinda rocks. We're gonna have our first female Best Director Oscar winner! It only took 82 freaking years!
Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Toby Maguire, Brothers
Clooney's looking like a bit of a lock here, but that really still remains to be determined. Maguire's win at the Globes really intrigues me, so I've moved him onto the list and gotten rid of The Hurt Locker's Jeremy Renner, though I still think he could pull a nod.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
This list is looking like the most solid list of all. Streep bounds up the list after numerous critical prizes and two Golden Globe nods, raising her overall total to 25 (?!), the highest ever. Again. I really am interested in Emily Blunt's nomination for The Young Victoria, and it's certainly the type of movie that actresses get nominated for, but I just don't think she can derail Bullock. So who goes? Mirren? Strange as it is, I think the former Queen is gonna be the one who loses her spot to another young upstart, not Bullock.
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia/The Lovely Bones
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Dang, this one is getting hard to figure out. The Messenger's Woody Harrelson is picking up steam like there's no tomorrow, while Molina's Globe snub hurts, but who to take off this list? It's really a strange game and one I still don't know the answer to, other than this little tidbit: Christoph Waltz has won. It's done. He, like Mo'Nique, is picking up every big prize known to man now, and as long as nothing comes along to really derail him, he's got it.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Same thing about Mo'Nique as about Waltz. I kinda feel bad for Kendrick, though. It sounds like she's actually pretty incredible opposite George Clooney. Mariah Carey is done; someone from Nine is gonna get nominated here, as well as both Farmiga and Kendrick, so there's no room for her. Moore might have been overhyped; I think Farmiga probably deserves to be above her.
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson, Up
Best Adapted Screenplay
Damien Paul, Precious
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Nick Hornby, An Education
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Anthony Peckham, Invictus
I can't even begin to talk about what a hot ghetto mess these categories are. The Globes snubbed Julie & Julia and Precious for District 9 and It's Complicated? And that's not even talking about all the rest that got snubbed. Seriously, y'all, I almost give up. This thing is ridiculous with how many contenders there are.
Best Animated Feature
Up
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Coraline
Ponyo
Looks like I WAAAY overestimated Ponyo. I still think it'll hold on, but not by much. The Fantastic Mr. Fox is beating Up in a couple of contests, but I don't think it's a pattern. Who knows? We'll see.
On another, completely unrelated note, congratulations go out to David Cruz and Grace McElhenny, friends of the blog, for their recent acceptances to Yale and Georgetown, respectively. Congratulations, you guys. It couldn't have happened to nicer, more deserving people.
Also, thanks to everyone who said kind things about my acceptance to Loyola Marymount. Their screenwriting program is super-selective, and I submitted samples for their review, so it means a lot to me, and your support means even more.
We're headed into the Christmas break, when things in this race really take a turn. I will, of course, keep this posted, as well as release my Entertainers of the Year at the end of the week in lieu of an Oscar post. Once Project Runway and American Idol come back, you can expect those blog posts to fire up, too. Thanks to everyone who reads, follows, and supports, and Happy Christmas Break!
Since this is first and foremost an Oscar blog, instead of trying to analyze the Golden Globe categories, I'll simply update my predictions based on what the Globes did, as well as several critics' groups and, my personal favorite organization, the Broadcast Film Critics Association, picked.
Best Picture
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Avatar
Invictus
A Serious Man
Up
An Education
Nine
All of a sudden, I'm thinking An Education is gonna have a hard time scraping a nod here. I was stupid to eliminate Nine and A Serious Man... call it spur-of-the-moment craziness. However, I'm still skeptical about both--is the buzz really worth nominations? Serious got shut out of the Globes, but major critics organizations are falling in love with it, so who knows... Up lost a couple of critics' prizes for Best Animated Feature, which only serves to make it more vulnerable. I really don't feel good about the bottom four picks: they just don't seem solid. The Last Station's buzz disappeared, so it's gone, too.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels couldn't hang onto buzz, so he's off for Tarantino. Bigelow looks undefeatable, which kinda rocks. We're gonna have our first female Best Director Oscar winner! It only took 82 freaking years!
Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Toby Maguire, Brothers
Clooney's looking like a bit of a lock here, but that really still remains to be determined. Maguire's win at the Globes really intrigues me, so I've moved him onto the list and gotten rid of The Hurt Locker's Jeremy Renner, though I still think he could pull a nod.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
This list is looking like the most solid list of all. Streep bounds up the list after numerous critical prizes and two Golden Globe nods, raising her overall total to 25 (?!), the highest ever. Again. I really am interested in Emily Blunt's nomination for The Young Victoria, and it's certainly the type of movie that actresses get nominated for, but I just don't think she can derail Bullock. So who goes? Mirren? Strange as it is, I think the former Queen is gonna be the one who loses her spot to another young upstart, not Bullock.
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia/The Lovely Bones
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Dang, this one is getting hard to figure out. The Messenger's Woody Harrelson is picking up steam like there's no tomorrow, while Molina's Globe snub hurts, but who to take off this list? It's really a strange game and one I still don't know the answer to, other than this little tidbit: Christoph Waltz has won. It's done. He, like Mo'Nique, is picking up every big prize known to man now, and as long as nothing comes along to really derail him, he's got it.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Same thing about Mo'Nique as about Waltz. I kinda feel bad for Kendrick, though. It sounds like she's actually pretty incredible opposite George Clooney. Mariah Carey is done; someone from Nine is gonna get nominated here, as well as both Farmiga and Kendrick, so there's no room for her. Moore might have been overhyped; I think Farmiga probably deserves to be above her.
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson, Up
Best Adapted Screenplay
Damien Paul, Precious
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Nick Hornby, An Education
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Anthony Peckham, Invictus
I can't even begin to talk about what a hot ghetto mess these categories are. The Globes snubbed Julie & Julia and Precious for District 9 and It's Complicated? And that's not even talking about all the rest that got snubbed. Seriously, y'all, I almost give up. This thing is ridiculous with how many contenders there are.
Best Animated Feature
Up
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Coraline
Ponyo
Looks like I WAAAY overestimated Ponyo. I still think it'll hold on, but not by much. The Fantastic Mr. Fox is beating Up in a couple of contests, but I don't think it's a pattern. Who knows? We'll see.
On another, completely unrelated note, congratulations go out to David Cruz and Grace McElhenny, friends of the blog, for their recent acceptances to Yale and Georgetown, respectively. Congratulations, you guys. It couldn't have happened to nicer, more deserving people.
Also, thanks to everyone who said kind things about my acceptance to Loyola Marymount. Their screenwriting program is super-selective, and I submitted samples for their review, so it means a lot to me, and your support means even more.
We're headed into the Christmas break, when things in this race really take a turn. I will, of course, keep this posted, as well as release my Entertainers of the Year at the end of the week in lieu of an Oscar post. Once Project Runway and American Idol come back, you can expect those blog posts to fire up, too. Thanks to everyone who reads, follows, and supports, and Happy Christmas Break!
Friday, December 11, 2009
Blue Things Beat Daniel Day-Lewis
Avatar, James Cameron, Colin Firth, Julianne Moore up
Rob Marshall, Nine, The Lovely Bones, Stanley Tucci down
Well, that'll show me for updating my picks a day early.
After posting updated Oscar predictions on Thursday instead of Friday, reviews started pouring in for Avatar, A Single Man, The Lovely Bones and Nine started pouring in, requiring more than a few changes to the main six categories.
Best Picture
Up in the Air
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Up
Avatar
The Last Station
A Single Man
Nine and A Serious Man move off the list in favor of the ridiculously well-reviewed Avatar and the slightly less-so A Single Man. Serious only moves off because it and Single really aren't capable of coexisting, at least on this list. I'm still wondering if Up and Up in the Air can. In other news: The Lovely Bones got so critically smashed that it has no chance at a nod.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
Cameron's glowing reviews shoot him up the list. His is a director's movie, and let's face it: things worked out pretty well last time, huh? Terrible reviews for Marshall's movie drop him off the list. I'm very close to adding Tom Ford for A Single Man in favor of Daniels, but I won't just yet.
Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Strong reviews for Firth move him up ever so slightly. The Bridges performance is starting to make me wonder: can a movie with no other real awards prospects produce a lock performance? Mickey Rourke needed Marisa Tomei's buzz to make his nod a lock last year, and Bridges is going up against some major wattage talent, so we'll see. Oh, and Daniel Day-Lewis? Yeah, his performance underwhelms, apparently. Called that one right!
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
I'll keep this the same for now. Streep needs a comeback, because the young'uns are trouncing her in buzz and press.
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Alfred Molina, An Education
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Okay, so I broke. Big deal. Alec Baldwin was an outside guess, anyways. And his movie still hasn't opened, so something good could happen. However, I guessed against Hal Holbrook two years ago, and that turned out disastrously, so I'll switch to Plummer for the generational vote.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
I'm hearing more good things about Farmiga, so she's back on the list. Cruz drops because her movie got blasted, and Moore rises because her reviews were astounding. (Mo'Nique will still win, though.)
Sorry again for the double update, but that's my lesson of the day: never speak too soon. Also: never underestimate blue things.
Rob Marshall, Nine, The Lovely Bones, Stanley Tucci down
Well, that'll show me for updating my picks a day early.
After posting updated Oscar predictions on Thursday instead of Friday, reviews started pouring in for Avatar, A Single Man, The Lovely Bones and Nine started pouring in, requiring more than a few changes to the main six categories.
Best Picture
Up in the Air
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Up
Avatar
The Last Station
A Single Man
Nine and A Serious Man move off the list in favor of the ridiculously well-reviewed Avatar and the slightly less-so A Single Man. Serious only moves off because it and Single really aren't capable of coexisting, at least on this list. I'm still wondering if Up and Up in the Air can. In other news: The Lovely Bones got so critically smashed that it has no chance at a nod.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
Cameron's glowing reviews shoot him up the list. His is a director's movie, and let's face it: things worked out pretty well last time, huh? Terrible reviews for Marshall's movie drop him off the list. I'm very close to adding Tom Ford for A Single Man in favor of Daniels, but I won't just yet.
Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Strong reviews for Firth move him up ever so slightly. The Bridges performance is starting to make me wonder: can a movie with no other real awards prospects produce a lock performance? Mickey Rourke needed Marisa Tomei's buzz to make his nod a lock last year, and Bridges is going up against some major wattage talent, so we'll see. Oh, and Daniel Day-Lewis? Yeah, his performance underwhelms, apparently. Called that one right!
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
I'll keep this the same for now. Streep needs a comeback, because the young'uns are trouncing her in buzz and press.
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Alfred Molina, An Education
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Okay, so I broke. Big deal. Alec Baldwin was an outside guess, anyways. And his movie still hasn't opened, so something good could happen. However, I guessed against Hal Holbrook two years ago, and that turned out disastrously, so I'll switch to Plummer for the generational vote.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
I'm hearing more good things about Farmiga, so she's back on the list. Cruz drops because her movie got blasted, and Moore rises because her reviews were astounding. (Mo'Nique will still win, though.)
Sorry again for the double update, but that's my lesson of the day: never speak too soon. Also: never underestimate blue things.
Entertainers of the Year
Who made you laugh this year? What movie brought you to tears? What cheerleading coach did both? (Yes We Cane!)
It's always difficult to determine who exactly are the Entertainers of the Year, because "entertaining" is such a hard concept to define. Is it someone who keeps an established career rolling? Or is it someone who really breaks out of their mold and becomes a phenomenon?
My definition is a bit of both. A strict, dictionary definition of "entertainer" just doesn't do here. They're actors, singers, TV shows, movies, and other pop culture phenomena. With that, I present to you, in no particular order, my 15 Entertainers of the Year!
Sandra Bullock
For a 45-year old actress, Bullock is having the year that most twentysomethings would die for. Her two hit movies The Proposal and The Blind Side have made incredible grosses both domestically and abroad. She's on her way to her first Oscar nomination for The Blind Side, quite a feat for a film not many considered a threat only a short time ago. She's been absent from the scene for years, causing many to wonder if her career was dead after years of hit films like Miss Congeniality, but Bullock's shown that just because you take a little break doesn't mean that you're out of the game. Welcome back, Gracie Lou Freebush.
Rated R
Mock if you'd like. Selecting Rihanna's fourth album, her darkest and most personal effort by far, as an Entertainer of the Year doesn't jell on several levels. Why not just select Rihanna as an EotY? Here's why: R was such a great album for the production value, quality of writing, as well as Rihanna's vocals. Just selecting the singer wouldn't really be honest, especially since her life this year hasn't exactly been entertaining. Props to her, however, for handling her domestic abuse scandal with grace and ease, and producing such a stellar album. With stellar tracks like Russian Roulette and G4L, the pop superstar has reinvented herself yet again, this time for the absolute best.
Meryl Streep
To be fair, Streep is kind of an Entertainer of the Year every year. After such radically different performances last year in Doubt and Mamma Mia!, La Streep basically did the same thing with a biographical performance of Julia Child, as well as a loose, aged woman with questionable morals in It's Complicated. Is there anything the woman can't do? Maybe play air hockey really well? Because in all seriousness, she's kinda the best actress of all time. Just in my opinion. And the Oscars'.
Chelsea Handler
Handler's been having one of those years that really doesn't happen. Her late night talk show, Chelsea Lately, started the year being shifted out of its timeslot and having its set revamped. Thanks, E!, for screwing that around. However, since then, Chelseas both Handler and Lately just keep getting better. Funnier, bigger, and even drawing high-profile guests like Jennifer Aniston and T.I. (pre-prison term), the show has taken off, and Handler's only gotten sharper and better as a result. Tired of philanderers, viral video addicts, annoyingly tall redheads, or the catastrophe known as The Jay Leno Show in late night? Spend a little time with Chelsea and Chelsea.
Mad Men
First off, MAJOR SPOILER ALERT! If you've never watched the show before (and we can discuss what's wrong with you later) but you plan to (at least you're taking steps to rectify your situation), don't read any further. I'm spoilering out on this one!
Words can't describe how incredible this show really is. The first season was an intriguing look at a man named Dick Whitman posing as another man named Don Draper and the circumstances behind the swap in identity. An ad man in 1960s New York City, Don Draper is as much of a ladies' man as you'll ever see, except to his wife. A mixture of his brilliance in the office and balancing his many affairs made Jon Hamm's mysterious man the star of that first season. After that, we were treated to a look into the lives of the Mad women, including Don's wife, Betty, and his former secretary-turned-genius copywriter, Peggy Olson. The second season was filled with intriguing plot twists and insights into the characters, but looking back, not a whole lot happened involving the primary plot with Don's identity. All that changed this season. At Don's ad firm, Sterling Cooper, a British takeover finally resulted in Don and a few brilliant ad executives moving to a new firm, Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce, before being sold again. The result was the most fun episode of Mad Men ever, "Shut the Door, Have a Seat." The perfect payoff for fans, after a similiarly-perfect season that saw the end of Betty and Don's marriage, a struggle for power for Peggy, and a rapist getting a vase smashed over his head by his wife (fans, who didn't cheer on that one?). The first few episodes were slow, yes, but as Mad Men has always proven, things will always sort themselves out, and all we as the audience can do is be entertained.
The Voltaggio Brothers
Neither probably deserved to win Top Chef. Truly, the win probably belonged to Kevin, the second runner-up. But as far as drama goes, Michael and Bryan Voltaggio brought it in spades. Their rivalry, their innovativeness, and their sheer skill brought the show to a point it really never hit last season, and set the standard for all seasons to come. They really did hate each other (no brotherly love here), which made it difficult for some to watch, but for me, it was one of the most entertaining things all year.
Mo'Nique
I could go on about how Mo'Nique's also had a talk show on BET this year, but I'll be totally honest: there's one and only reason Mo'Nique is on this list, and her name is Mary. The monstrous mother of the titular character in Precious, Mary is abusive, both mentally and physically, and yet incredibly complex in her motives. Played by any other actress, this part might have seemed overacted or unreal. Mo'Nique embodies Mary with such ferocity and hatred that she actually becomes the character, and it's easy to forget you're watching a comedian best known for movies like Phat Girlz. Truthfully, Mo'Nique's performance might be the best I've seen this decade, bar none. The fact that she's considered a lightweight talent in so many circles only makes the awards attention better.
Lady Gaga
I've, of course, already elaborated on this, but Lady Gaga entertains every time she's on stage, on the radio, or giving an interview. Gaga knows how to work hard to entertain her audiences at every turn. She's a genius, if not for her singing or songwriting, then for her ability to create an absolute phenomenon of herself. I once thought Lady Gaga would be an artist of the moment, but I'm starting to suspect that she'll be around for quite some time.
The Cast of Glee
Has there ever been a show like Glee? More to the point, has there ever been a cast like Glee's? From Lea Michele as Rachel Berry, the songbird with the voice for days, to Amber Riley as Mercedes, both embracing and breaking out of her status as the token belter on the show, to Matthew Morrison, holding his own as Will Schuester, hanging with the kids and singing just as well, to Jayma Mays, heartbreaking as Emma Pillsbury who quietly suffers while the love of her life is married to another woman, to the absolutely brilliant Jane Lynch as Sue Sylvester, a one-liner machine who causes a laughing fit every time, guaranteed, plus more. Each member of the cast brings something truly special to the table, and that may be why the show is such a success: it's a team effort.
Rose Byrne
If you just asked, "Who?" I can't really blame you. Rose Byrne is best known for a cable show that only gets about a million viewers on average. Not only that, but her independent film, Adam, released earlier this year, had terrible box office. So what if she's not entertaining to everyone? The fact is that Byrne is damn entertaining. The Aussie-born actress scored Golden Globe and Emmy nominations for her performance on Damages opposite legend Glenn Close. The most remarkabe thing is that at several different points this season, Byrne outacted Close! Her subtlety was broken through and a quiet fierceness was awakened. Not only that, but her performance in the Hugh Dancy-helmed indie was touching and genuine. Not every entertainer is a household name; sometimes, even if only a few are entertained, they're the most entertained of all.
The Good Wife
Don't call it a procedural. Being lumped in with shows like CSI: and Cold Case is a tremendous insult to a show as well-acted, well-written, and absolutely intriguing as this one. Julianna Marguiles is intriguing and entertaining as Alicia Florrick, a woman forced to go back to practicing law to support her family after her husband, State's Attorney Peter Florrick, is caught up in a scandal and sent to prison. Archie Panjabi is absolutely brilliant as researcher Kalinda Sharma, making lawyers everywhere jealous that she's not on their team. Combined with other actors of stage and screen, the cast takes the expert writing and merges two concepts, a politician's wife shamed and an older woman working for the first time, and makes something truly special.
The Tiger Woods Scandal
This hot ghetto mess is just too fun. Yes, I do feel terrible for Elin Nordegren, a woman wronged by a husband who obviously missed the day in Pre-K when you learn to keep your hands to yourself. I absolutely do not feel bad for Tiger; the guy's a scumbag getting what's coming to him. But here's why this thing is so damn entertaining: there are just too many jokes! There's too many women! The entire thing is just one big catastrophe that's like a train wreck: it's too delicious to look away.
The Cast of The Hangover
Doesn't it kinda feel like this movie came out eons ago? I guess when you're entrenched in senior year, summer was eons ago. However, time hasn't dulled the sharp comedy that this cast brought in this movie. Made up of "That one guy" and "Oh, he was on The Daily Show," the movie didn't have a lot of star power going for it, so it made some star power of its own. The concept was a twist on an old favorite ("what happened last night?"), but the charm of the cast really elevated it to a new level. Between this and The Blind Side, word-of-mouth hits are having a great year.
Joel McHale
Two hit shows + lots of laughs = one incredibly entertaining comedian. The Soup, his pet project that he hosts on the E! channel, continues to be one of the most consistently funny shows on television, poking fun at all the crap we watch because there's nothing else on/we're self-flagellators. On Community, he's slowly building an entertaining character and a show that fits seamlessly into NBC's comedy lineup. McHale isn't new to the scene, but he's never been more entertaining.
Taylor Swift
Oh, like you didn't see this one coming. Beyoncé, Im'ma let you finish, but Taylor Swift has had one of the best years OF ALL TIME! It's interesting to watch how the Kanye West VMAs controversy launched Taylor from crossover star to absolute cultural phenomenon. She and Beyoncé truly are the biggest stars in music right now, closely followed by Rihanna, Lady Gaga, Jay-Z, and (unfortunately) Susan Boyle. Why is Taylor so huge? Simple: she's America's sweetheart. Her music is catchy and totally Top 40 potential. Her blog on Facebook is both hilarious and humanly interesting in a way most celebrity blogs aren't. Her charm and ease in interviews make her out to be more of a teenager than other celebrities her age. She's enjoying her fame while being surprised every time an awards organization says her name. She's the best host of Saturday Night Live all season, by a country mile. This has been her year, and she should embrace it, because the likelihood of another one like it coming along for a while is slim to none.
It's always difficult to determine who exactly are the Entertainers of the Year, because "entertaining" is such a hard concept to define. Is it someone who keeps an established career rolling? Or is it someone who really breaks out of their mold and becomes a phenomenon?
My definition is a bit of both. A strict, dictionary definition of "entertainer" just doesn't do here. They're actors, singers, TV shows, movies, and other pop culture phenomena. With that, I present to you, in no particular order, my 15 Entertainers of the Year!
Sandra Bullock
For a 45-year old actress, Bullock is having the year that most twentysomethings would die for. Her two hit movies The Proposal and The Blind Side have made incredible grosses both domestically and abroad. She's on her way to her first Oscar nomination for The Blind Side, quite a feat for a film not many considered a threat only a short time ago. She's been absent from the scene for years, causing many to wonder if her career was dead after years of hit films like Miss Congeniality, but Bullock's shown that just because you take a little break doesn't mean that you're out of the game. Welcome back, Gracie Lou Freebush.
Rated R
Mock if you'd like. Selecting Rihanna's fourth album, her darkest and most personal effort by far, as an Entertainer of the Year doesn't jell on several levels. Why not just select Rihanna as an EotY? Here's why: R was such a great album for the production value, quality of writing, as well as Rihanna's vocals. Just selecting the singer wouldn't really be honest, especially since her life this year hasn't exactly been entertaining. Props to her, however, for handling her domestic abuse scandal with grace and ease, and producing such a stellar album. With stellar tracks like Russian Roulette and G4L, the pop superstar has reinvented herself yet again, this time for the absolute best.
Meryl Streep
To be fair, Streep is kind of an Entertainer of the Year every year. After such radically different performances last year in Doubt and Mamma Mia!, La Streep basically did the same thing with a biographical performance of Julia Child, as well as a loose, aged woman with questionable morals in It's Complicated. Is there anything the woman can't do? Maybe play air hockey really well? Because in all seriousness, she's kinda the best actress of all time. Just in my opinion. And the Oscars'.
Chelsea Handler
Handler's been having one of those years that really doesn't happen. Her late night talk show, Chelsea Lately, started the year being shifted out of its timeslot and having its set revamped. Thanks, E!, for screwing that around. However, since then, Chelseas both Handler and Lately just keep getting better. Funnier, bigger, and even drawing high-profile guests like Jennifer Aniston and T.I. (pre-prison term), the show has taken off, and Handler's only gotten sharper and better as a result. Tired of philanderers, viral video addicts, annoyingly tall redheads, or the catastrophe known as The Jay Leno Show in late night? Spend a little time with Chelsea and Chelsea.
Mad Men
First off, MAJOR SPOILER ALERT! If you've never watched the show before (and we can discuss what's wrong with you later) but you plan to (at least you're taking steps to rectify your situation), don't read any further. I'm spoilering out on this one!
Words can't describe how incredible this show really is. The first season was an intriguing look at a man named Dick Whitman posing as another man named Don Draper and the circumstances behind the swap in identity. An ad man in 1960s New York City, Don Draper is as much of a ladies' man as you'll ever see, except to his wife. A mixture of his brilliance in the office and balancing his many affairs made Jon Hamm's mysterious man the star of that first season. After that, we were treated to a look into the lives of the Mad women, including Don's wife, Betty, and his former secretary-turned-genius copywriter, Peggy Olson. The second season was filled with intriguing plot twists and insights into the characters, but looking back, not a whole lot happened involving the primary plot with Don's identity. All that changed this season. At Don's ad firm, Sterling Cooper, a British takeover finally resulted in Don and a few brilliant ad executives moving to a new firm, Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce, before being sold again. The result was the most fun episode of Mad Men ever, "Shut the Door, Have a Seat." The perfect payoff for fans, after a similiarly-perfect season that saw the end of Betty and Don's marriage, a struggle for power for Peggy, and a rapist getting a vase smashed over his head by his wife (fans, who didn't cheer on that one?). The first few episodes were slow, yes, but as Mad Men has always proven, things will always sort themselves out, and all we as the audience can do is be entertained.
The Voltaggio Brothers
Neither probably deserved to win Top Chef. Truly, the win probably belonged to Kevin, the second runner-up. But as far as drama goes, Michael and Bryan Voltaggio brought it in spades. Their rivalry, their innovativeness, and their sheer skill brought the show to a point it really never hit last season, and set the standard for all seasons to come. They really did hate each other (no brotherly love here), which made it difficult for some to watch, but for me, it was one of the most entertaining things all year.
Mo'Nique
I could go on about how Mo'Nique's also had a talk show on BET this year, but I'll be totally honest: there's one and only reason Mo'Nique is on this list, and her name is Mary. The monstrous mother of the titular character in Precious, Mary is abusive, both mentally and physically, and yet incredibly complex in her motives. Played by any other actress, this part might have seemed overacted or unreal. Mo'Nique embodies Mary with such ferocity and hatred that she actually becomes the character, and it's easy to forget you're watching a comedian best known for movies like Phat Girlz. Truthfully, Mo'Nique's performance might be the best I've seen this decade, bar none. The fact that she's considered a lightweight talent in so many circles only makes the awards attention better.
Lady Gaga
I've, of course, already elaborated on this, but Lady Gaga entertains every time she's on stage, on the radio, or giving an interview. Gaga knows how to work hard to entertain her audiences at every turn. She's a genius, if not for her singing or songwriting, then for her ability to create an absolute phenomenon of herself. I once thought Lady Gaga would be an artist of the moment, but I'm starting to suspect that she'll be around for quite some time.
The Cast of Glee
Has there ever been a show like Glee? More to the point, has there ever been a cast like Glee's? From Lea Michele as Rachel Berry, the songbird with the voice for days, to Amber Riley as Mercedes, both embracing and breaking out of her status as the token belter on the show, to Matthew Morrison, holding his own as Will Schuester, hanging with the kids and singing just as well, to Jayma Mays, heartbreaking as Emma Pillsbury who quietly suffers while the love of her life is married to another woman, to the absolutely brilliant Jane Lynch as Sue Sylvester, a one-liner machine who causes a laughing fit every time, guaranteed, plus more. Each member of the cast brings something truly special to the table, and that may be why the show is such a success: it's a team effort.
Rose Byrne
If you just asked, "Who?" I can't really blame you. Rose Byrne is best known for a cable show that only gets about a million viewers on average. Not only that, but her independent film, Adam, released earlier this year, had terrible box office. So what if she's not entertaining to everyone? The fact is that Byrne is damn entertaining. The Aussie-born actress scored Golden Globe and Emmy nominations for her performance on Damages opposite legend Glenn Close. The most remarkabe thing is that at several different points this season, Byrne outacted Close! Her subtlety was broken through and a quiet fierceness was awakened. Not only that, but her performance in the Hugh Dancy-helmed indie was touching and genuine. Not every entertainer is a household name; sometimes, even if only a few are entertained, they're the most entertained of all.
The Good Wife
Don't call it a procedural. Being lumped in with shows like CSI: and Cold Case is a tremendous insult to a show as well-acted, well-written, and absolutely intriguing as this one. Julianna Marguiles is intriguing and entertaining as Alicia Florrick, a woman forced to go back to practicing law to support her family after her husband, State's Attorney Peter Florrick, is caught up in a scandal and sent to prison. Archie Panjabi is absolutely brilliant as researcher Kalinda Sharma, making lawyers everywhere jealous that she's not on their team. Combined with other actors of stage and screen, the cast takes the expert writing and merges two concepts, a politician's wife shamed and an older woman working for the first time, and makes something truly special.
The Tiger Woods Scandal
This hot ghetto mess is just too fun. Yes, I do feel terrible for Elin Nordegren, a woman wronged by a husband who obviously missed the day in Pre-K when you learn to keep your hands to yourself. I absolutely do not feel bad for Tiger; the guy's a scumbag getting what's coming to him. But here's why this thing is so damn entertaining: there are just too many jokes! There's too many women! The entire thing is just one big catastrophe that's like a train wreck: it's too delicious to look away.
The Cast of The Hangover
Doesn't it kinda feel like this movie came out eons ago? I guess when you're entrenched in senior year, summer was eons ago. However, time hasn't dulled the sharp comedy that this cast brought in this movie. Made up of "That one guy" and "Oh, he was on The Daily Show," the movie didn't have a lot of star power going for it, so it made some star power of its own. The concept was a twist on an old favorite ("what happened last night?"), but the charm of the cast really elevated it to a new level. Between this and The Blind Side, word-of-mouth hits are having a great year.
Joel McHale
Two hit shows + lots of laughs = one incredibly entertaining comedian. The Soup, his pet project that he hosts on the E! channel, continues to be one of the most consistently funny shows on television, poking fun at all the crap we watch because there's nothing else on/we're self-flagellators. On Community, he's slowly building an entertaining character and a show that fits seamlessly into NBC's comedy lineup. McHale isn't new to the scene, but he's never been more entertaining.
Taylor Swift
Oh, like you didn't see this one coming. Beyoncé, Im'ma let you finish, but Taylor Swift has had one of the best years OF ALL TIME! It's interesting to watch how the Kanye West VMAs controversy launched Taylor from crossover star to absolute cultural phenomenon. She and Beyoncé truly are the biggest stars in music right now, closely followed by Rihanna, Lady Gaga, Jay-Z, and (unfortunately) Susan Boyle. Why is Taylor so huge? Simple: she's America's sweetheart. Her music is catchy and totally Top 40 potential. Her blog on Facebook is both hilarious and humanly interesting in a way most celebrity blogs aren't. Her charm and ease in interviews make her out to be more of a teenager than other celebrities her age. She's enjoying her fame while being surprised every time an awards organization says her name. She's the best host of Saturday Night Live all season, by a country mile. This has been her year, and she should embrace it, because the likelihood of another one like it coming along for a while is slim to none.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
You Can't Read Her, You Can't Read Her, No You Can't Read Her Poker Face
Time for the impassioned defense post! Get excited!
I'll admit, when "Just Dance" first came out, I despised Stefani Germanotta, the 'singer' referring to herself as Lady Gaga. She was another talentless bimbo singing about getting drunk and blacking out at a club. Like we need another one.
But sometime between the "Poker Face" and "Paparazzi," I learned to really appreciate Lady Gaga for who she is and admire her for the incredible amount of work and creativity she puts into everything she does.
Do I like her music? It's irrelevant. (In case you're wondering, the answer is complicated: she's hit-and-miss for me. Songs like "The Fame," "Bad Romance," and "Paparazzi" are really great, and songs like "Speechless" and "Telephone" are a kick to listen to because they demonstrate her range so well, but other songs like "LoveGame" and "Just Dance" are painful to listen to.) You can love or hate Lady Gaga, but you can't help but respect how incredible the phenomenon known as Lady Gaga really is.
Below are the ____ reasons why Lady Gaga is so insanely impactful on our culture (and at times, just plain insane).
Her Live Performance Prowess Is Unmatched
Ever wonder why Lady Gaga really doesn't sound much different in live performances as on record? Gaga doesn't use Auto-Tune, and her performances are truly her life's blood. She puts everything she has out for everyone to see every time she hits the stage. Sometimes, the performances are disturbing. Always, the performances are crazy beyond belief. But you will never see a Lady Gaga performance at anything other than 200%.
She Shouldn't Be Popular
Thanks to David Cruz for inspiring this point. As an openly bisexual, sometimes crazypants artist unafraid of the surreal and unreal, Lady Gaga really should not be popular, and yet she is the most popular artist of this year (arguably; Taylor Swift's up there too). You can't not love where pop music is going if someone like Gaga can be so insanely popular.
She's Unafraid of Being a Role Model
In the wake of all this Tiger Woods madness, when we're supposed to believe that the golfer-turned-walking infidelity isn't a role model to fans, it's refreshing to hear a celebrity owning up to their status as a model for their fans. Whether a celebrity wants to be an icon or not is a decision they simply cannot make. They will always be held accountable for their actions. With someone like Lady Gaga, who the tabloids have nary a bad word to write about, it's really cool that she can be that idol.
She's Productive in a Good Way
The Fame, Lady Gaga's debut album, was a success on its own. Gaga, always topping herself, released The Fame Monster, an eight-song EP with new music, and the first single, "Bad Romance" is already tearing up the charts while "Paparazzi" and "Poker Face" stay strong. Now that's productivity.
This Outfit
It's an outfit made of Kermit the Frog dolls. That is all.
Say what you will about Lady Gaga. I already have. You may have a different opinion. But to me, in a world where celebrities so often behave so badly, a determined artist like Lady Gaga can really be an example to follow.
Just no bubble dresses, 'k?
I'll admit, when "Just Dance" first came out, I despised Stefani Germanotta, the 'singer' referring to herself as Lady Gaga. She was another talentless bimbo singing about getting drunk and blacking out at a club. Like we need another one.
But sometime between the "Poker Face" and "Paparazzi," I learned to really appreciate Lady Gaga for who she is and admire her for the incredible amount of work and creativity she puts into everything she does.
Do I like her music? It's irrelevant. (In case you're wondering, the answer is complicated: she's hit-and-miss for me. Songs like "The Fame," "Bad Romance," and "Paparazzi" are really great, and songs like "Speechless" and "Telephone" are a kick to listen to because they demonstrate her range so well, but other songs like "LoveGame" and "Just Dance" are painful to listen to.) You can love or hate Lady Gaga, but you can't help but respect how incredible the phenomenon known as Lady Gaga really is.
Below are the ____ reasons why Lady Gaga is so insanely impactful on our culture (and at times, just plain insane).
Her Live Performance Prowess Is Unmatched
Ever wonder why Lady Gaga really doesn't sound much different in live performances as on record? Gaga doesn't use Auto-Tune, and her performances are truly her life's blood. She puts everything she has out for everyone to see every time she hits the stage. Sometimes, the performances are disturbing. Always, the performances are crazy beyond belief. But you will never see a Lady Gaga performance at anything other than 200%.
She Shouldn't Be Popular
Thanks to David Cruz for inspiring this point. As an openly bisexual, sometimes crazypants artist unafraid of the surreal and unreal, Lady Gaga really should not be popular, and yet she is the most popular artist of this year (arguably; Taylor Swift's up there too). You can't not love where pop music is going if someone like Gaga can be so insanely popular.
She's Unafraid of Being a Role Model
In the wake of all this Tiger Woods madness, when we're supposed to believe that the golfer-turned-walking infidelity isn't a role model to fans, it's refreshing to hear a celebrity owning up to their status as a model for their fans. Whether a celebrity wants to be an icon or not is a decision they simply cannot make. They will always be held accountable for their actions. With someone like Lady Gaga, who the tabloids have nary a bad word to write about, it's really cool that she can be that idol.
She's Productive in a Good Way
The Fame, Lady Gaga's debut album, was a success on its own. Gaga, always topping herself, released The Fame Monster, an eight-song EP with new music, and the first single, "Bad Romance" is already tearing up the charts while "Paparazzi" and "Poker Face" stay strong. Now that's productivity.
This Outfit
It's an outfit made of Kermit the Frog dolls. That is all.
Say what you will about Lady Gaga. I already have. You may have a different opinion. But to me, in a world where celebrities so often behave so badly, a determined artist like Lady Gaga can really be an example to follow.
Just no bubble dresses, 'k?
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