Friday, December 11, 2009

Blue Things Beat Daniel Day-Lewis

Avatar, James Cameron, Colin Firth, Julianne Moore up
Rob Marshall, Nine, The Lovely Bones, Stanley Tucci down

Well, that'll show me for updating my picks a day early.

After posting updated Oscar predictions on Thursday instead of Friday, reviews started pouring in for Avatar, A Single Man, The Lovely Bones and Nine started pouring in, requiring more than a few changes to the main six categories.

Best Picture
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
The Last Station
A Single Man

Nine and A Serious Man move off the list in favor of the ridiculously well-reviewed Avatar and the slightly less-so A Single Man. Serious only moves off because it and Single really aren't capable of coexisting, at least on this list. I'm still wondering if Up and Up in the Air can. In other news: The Lovely Bones got so critically smashed that it has no chance at a nod.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious

Cameron's glowing reviews shoot him up the list. His is a director's movie, and let's face it: things worked out pretty well last time, huh? Terrible reviews for Marshall's movie drop him off the list. I'm very close to adding Tom Ford for A Single Man in favor of Daniels, but I won't just yet.

Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Strong reviews for Firth move him up ever so slightly. The Bridges performance is starting to make me wonder: can a movie with no other real awards prospects produce a lock performance? Mickey Rourke needed Marisa Tomei's buzz to make his nod a lock last year, and Bridges is going up against some major wattage talent, so we'll see. Oh, and Daniel Day-Lewis? Yeah, his performance underwhelms, apparently. Called that one right!

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

I'll keep this the same for now. Streep needs a comeback, because the young'uns are trouncing her in buzz and press.

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Alfred Molina, An Education
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Okay, so I broke. Big deal. Alec Baldwin was an outside guess, anyways. And his movie still hasn't opened, so something good could happen. However, I guessed against Hal Holbrook two years ago, and that turned out disastrously, so I'll switch to Plummer for the generational vote.

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

I'm hearing more good things about Farmiga, so she's back on the list. Cruz drops because her movie got blasted, and Moore rises because her reviews were astounding. (Mo'Nique will still win, though.)

Sorry again for the double update, but that's my lesson of the day: never speak too soon. Also: never underestimate blue things.

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