The Precursors Begin

The precursors are coming! The precursors are coming!

As I mentioned in my last post, precursor awards are a big indicator of the twists and turns of the Oscar race and what is to be nominated come February 2. This week, the first precursory group, the National Board of Review, announced their picks for the top categories, and surprise! Things didn't go at all as most were expecting.

Yes, the Best Picture citation for Up in the Air was called by many (not me, *cough*), and a few of the acting decisions hit the nail on the head, but the Top 10 Films was somewhat of a surprise. (500) Days of Summer, Star Trek, and The Messenger, all good works in their own right, over Precious?! Accuse me of cheerleading, but quite frankly, this one doesn't make sense. Precious has all the hype and critical acclaim that it should easily make a list like this.

Not only that, but almost universal favorites like Mo'Nique, Christoph Waltz, and Meryl Streep were passed over for other, more niche options. (Although, as pointed out earlier, Carey Mulligan's looking like the favorite for Best Actress...)

The list of winners follows, as well as an individual analysis.

Best Picture
Up in the Air

I should've seen this one coming. Air looks like a fantastic movie, directed by one of the hottest directors around (Jason Reitman), and starring the (arguably) hottest movie star in Hollywood. Precious is about an obese black girl in Harlem, and is ridiculously difficult to watch. NBR isn't super-dedicated to finding the best movies, considering that they honor eleven as best, but I thought they would have had better judgment. I was incorrect. Whoops.

Top 10 Films
An Education
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up
Where the Wild Things Are

Wild Things, (500), Messenger, and Star Trek all surprise me. Is this what we might see at the Oscars? Does a wider field allow for more big budget movies, as originally thought? Don't be so sure. The NBR has done the list of ten for years, and it always goes a little crazy. This year's no different. Don't get excited, Trekkies. This means nothing.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Invictus

Ugh... That is all. I hate Clint Eastwood so, so much. In my ever-so-humble opinion (*snort*), he makes the same movie over and over. And don't get me started on the train wreck that was Gran Torino. But NBR loves him, so screw a visionary like Kathryn Bigelow or Jason Reitman...

Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air/Morgan Freeman, Invictus (tie)

Good for both of them. Not like they're huge, easily awardable stars or anything... It's strange how one organization can both take risks and play it ridiculously safe.

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, An Education

Yay! Yes, I am a Streep disciple, and yes, Gabourey Sidibe is brilliant, but this performance is just so much fun. I loved watching it, and I even love watching Mulligan on the campaign trail. Bravo for her!

Best Supporting Actor
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Not quite sure how to feel about these two. They're both hardworking actors who have parts in huge blockbuster movies this year (Harrelson in Zombieland, Kendrick in New Moon-seriously!), and their parts in these indie movies are said to be almost co-lead parts, which is catnip to Oscar voters. Still, The Messenger is a tiny, tiny movie, and I doubt its prospects in the big game. Mo'Nique's snub can mostly be chalked up to the fact that NBR clearly despises Precious (No, I'm not bitter, why do you ask?), but it's pretty great for Kendrick, who has the best shot of derailing Mo'Nique. It won't happen, just like Josh Brolin's win here last year couldn't derail Heath Ledger's march to the podium, but still, good job, Anna!

Best Original Screenplay
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man

While I have the chance... I'm not really sure how much of a shot A Serious Man has at the Oscars. On one hand, I am hearing approximately zero buzz, but on the other, it's a very Jewish film. Sounding about as stereotyping as I ever have, there's no question homosexual and/or Jewish members of the Academy (they could be both; I don't judge) hold a lot of cards. Ironically, only A Single Man (gay) or A Serious Man (Jewish) is likely to make it into the big race, so we'll see who holds more. As for the Brothers Coen, I guess they have a pretty good shot here. I'd say (500) Days of Summer has a better shot, or maybe The Hurt Locker, but who knows? Screenplay categories are tough for me, especially Original (see last year, when I completely screwed up predictions in that category).

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

If this or Precious wins Best Picture, they'll take Best Adapted Screenplay, too. Otherwise, it'll probably go to An Education.

Breakthrough Actor
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Breakthrough Actress
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

A breakthrough award never hurts, but it always does feel like a consolation prize. Renner and Sidibe are definitely in the running for Best Actor and Actress, though. This helps, if only in the slightest way.

I'll go ahead and update my predictions, editing where I find it necessary, and adding the Screenplay categories.

Best Picture
Up in the Air
Precious
The Hurt Locker
An Education
Invictus
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
Nine
The Last Station

Avatar's out, Station's in because of its 5 Independent Spirit Award nominations. Precious doesn't move down further because the Spirits were kind to it, too.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Rob Marshall, Nine
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious

You know who Tom Ford's New York Times profile really made look bad? Jason Reitman! He moves down, while Eastwood moves up. Still flying high: Bigelow.

Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Confession: I want Renner to get nominated. Also: Daniel Day-Lewis' singing in Nine is being hidden in previews. Coincidence? Or is there something studio head Harvey Weinstein wants to hide? Don't think it's a "secret weapon:" that's not Weinstein's modus operandi. If DDL could sing, we would've heard it by now. Kinda hard to get a nomination for a musical when you can't sing.

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Bullock's had a great year, and this nomination really seems like it could happen. The box office has been boffo, and the reviews of her performance are actually pretty stellar. She won't win (too much competition), but still, she's a great actress and deserves a nod. Plus, Saoirse Ronan's movie got trashed to oblivion. Bye-bye, two nods at age 15. Also: am I just nuts thinking Abbie Cornish has no shot here? No one seems to agree with me, but the movie made no impact whatsoever, so I'm sticking to my guns.

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Alfred Molina, An Education
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated
Matt Damon, Invictus

I was never convinced on Christopher Plummer, so he's out, and Damon's reviews have been strong, so he's in. Since The Lovely Bones got murdered, I'm giving Tucci the nod for Julie & Julia, but that makes the nomination less likely. Three (sorta four) comedic performances in this category? That's pretty unbelievable, and not in a good way.

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Not saying Mariah Carey won't be nominated, but this was Up in the Air's week. Be it from that film, Precious, or Nine, I feel impending nominations for two actresses of the same film. Which is kinda cool.

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson, Up
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

...Tarantino... Again, I don't feel confident in this list at all; these are the best bets I could muster. Who could win, I have even less clue.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Damien Paul, Precious
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Nick Hornby, An Education
Anthony Peckham, Invictus
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia

The first four, I'm very confident in. Let me explain Ephron: I think Oscar voters will find the two-movies-in-one concept fresh and innovative, and I think they'll reward it. My main motive behind that selection is that a fifth nominee is difficult to determine, so I might as well go with a wild card.

I know there have been a lot of updates in not a whole lot of time, but that just goes to show you how quickly things can change in this race. I'll attempt to switch to a once-a-week update system, but whenever something comes that dramatically shakes up an individual race, I'll post briefly to adjust accordingly. If you think I dropped someone that I shouldn't have, or if I'm really underrating something (other than Moon, David ;), leave a note in the comments!