Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Golden Globes Turn Oscar's World Upside Down

The Golden Globe nominations have been announced, so obviously, analysis is expected. Well, you're getting it, but not like you'd think.

Since this is first and foremost an Oscar blog, instead of trying to analyze the Golden Globe categories, I'll simply update my predictions based on what the Globes did, as well as several critics' groups and, my personal favorite organization, the Broadcast Film Critics Association, picked.

Best Picture
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
An Education

All of a sudden, I'm thinking An Education is gonna have a hard time scraping a nod here. I was stupid to eliminate Nine and A Serious Man... call it spur-of-the-moment craziness. However, I'm still skeptical about both--is the buzz really worth nominations? Serious got shut out of the Globes, but major critics organizations are falling in love with it, so who knows... Up lost a couple of critics' prizes for Best Animated Feature, which only serves to make it more vulnerable. I really don't feel good about the bottom four picks: they just don't seem solid. The Last Station's buzz disappeared, so it's gone, too.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Lee Daniels couldn't hang onto buzz, so he's off for Tarantino. Bigelow looks undefeatable, which kinda rocks. We're gonna have our first female Best Director Oscar winner! It only took 82 freaking years!

Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Toby Maguire, Brothers

Clooney's looking like a bit of a lock here, but that really still remains to be determined. Maguire's win at the Globes really intrigues me, so I've moved him onto the list and gotten rid of The Hurt Locker's Jeremy Renner, though I still think he could pull a nod.

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station

This list is looking like the most solid list of all. Streep bounds up the list after numerous critical prizes and two Golden Globe nods, raising her overall total to 25 (?!), the highest ever. Again. I really am interested in Emily Blunt's nomination for The Young Victoria, and it's certainly the type of movie that actresses get nominated for, but I just don't think she can derail Bullock. So who goes? Mirren? Strange as it is, I think the former Queen is gonna be the one who loses her spot to another young upstart, not Bullock.

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia/The Lovely Bones
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Dang, this one is getting hard to figure out. The Messenger's Woody Harrelson is picking up steam like there's no tomorrow, while Molina's Globe snub hurts, but who to take off this list? It's really a strange game and one I still don't know the answer to, other than this little tidbit: Christoph Waltz has won. It's done. He, like Mo'Nique, is picking up every big prize known to man now, and as long as nothing comes along to really derail him, he's got it.

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine

Same thing about Mo'Nique as about Waltz. I kinda feel bad for Kendrick, though. It sounds like she's actually pretty incredible opposite George Clooney. Mariah Carey is done; someone from Nine is gonna get nominated here, as well as both Farmiga and Kendrick, so there's no room for her. Moore might have been overhyped; I think Farmiga probably deserves to be above her.

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson, Up

Best Adapted Screenplay
Damien Paul, Precious
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Nick Hornby, An Education
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Anthony Peckham, Invictus

I can't even begin to talk about what a hot ghetto mess these categories are. The Globes snubbed Julie & Julia and Precious for District 9 and It's Complicated? And that's not even talking about all the rest that got snubbed. Seriously, y'all, I almost give up. This thing is ridiculous with how many contenders there are.

Best Animated Feature
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog

Looks like I WAAAY overestimated Ponyo. I still think it'll hold on, but not by much. The Fantastic Mr. Fox is beating Up in a couple of contests, but I don't think it's a pattern. Who knows? We'll see.

On another, completely unrelated note, congratulations go out to David Cruz and Grace McElhenny, friends of the blog, for their recent acceptances to Yale and Georgetown, respectively. Congratulations, you guys. It couldn't have happened to nicer, more deserving people.

Also, thanks to everyone who said kind things about my acceptance to Loyola Marymount. Their screenwriting program is super-selective, and I submitted samples for their review, so it means a lot to me, and your support means even more.

We're headed into the Christmas break, when things in this race really take a turn. I will, of course, keep this posted, as well as release my Entertainers of the Year at the end of the week in lieu of an Oscar post. Once Project Runway and American Idol come back, you can expect those blog posts to fire up, too. Thanks to everyone who reads, follows, and supports, and Happy Christmas Break!

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