Saturday, February 26, 2011

The Day Before Blues: Changing My Mind

We are mere hours away from the Academy Awards, so as one might expect, I've started to rethink my predictions. Ultimately, I realized that Alice in Wonderland wouldn't register such a high nomination count if it weren't going to pick up at least a couple of statuettes. What to give it, though? I went with the consensus opinion that it is going to win Best Costume Design (designer Colleen Atwood is locked in a tumultuous battle with The Tempest costume designer Sandy Powell, and the two always win when the other is nominated--a win for Atwood would match their records) and Best Art Direction (since voters prefer too much to the understated, like The King's Speech).

But here's the issue--if you're gonna expect The King's Speech to win Best Picture, you have to give it at least enough wins to consider it a "sweep". (Movies that get nominated in big numbers like that don't win Best Picture without a lot of other wins as well: see The Curious Case of Benjamin Button as an example). With those two trophies going to Alice, I honestly have no idea how to get the overall number of wins for The King's Speech up to six or above. I expect it to lose Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Editing and Sound Mixing, winning only Score, Original Screenplay and Actor. But that's far too many losses (especially losing Editing and Director) to also win Best Picture. The Oscars just don't work that way.

So with literally just 23 hours remaining before the ceremony, I'm switching my Best Picture pick to The Social Network. No idea why I'm doing this. It's incredibly risky. But I'm doing it.

If you wanna check out all my picks, the Current Oscar Predictions has them all. But I'm posting the major eight categories below. See you all tomorrow for live-blogging.

Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right 
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Should Win: Black Swan
Will Win: The Social Network

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter

Should Win: Darren Aronofsky
Will Win: David Fincher

Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Should Win and Will Win: Natalie Portman

Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Should Win: James Franco
Will Win: Colin Firth

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Should Win: Geoffrey Rush
Will Win: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Should Win and Will Win: Amy Adams (no idea why I have so much faith in this prediction)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Various Authors, Toy Story 3
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone

Should Win and Will Win: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Various Authors, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler, The King’s Speech

Should Win: Inception
Will Win: The King's Speech

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