Sunday, March 7, 2010

Remember to Watch the OSCARS Tonight on ABC at 7:30!

Obviously, the Oscars are tonight. What has seemed like both a volatile and calm awards season comes to an end when the final envelope is read and a film legend (probably) tells us that "The Oscar goes to..."

Ah, the "..." Who will be our big winner tonight? Could it really be Avatar, which I seem to have absolutely no faith in? Or could it be The Hurt Locker the would-be frontrunner if it weren't such an odd year? Inglourious Basterds could pull a Crash-sized upset (it has the crucial SAG Ensemble award, after all), or even Precious could appeal to the emotional Academy members. And what to make of Up in the Air? Its buzz totally vanished, but it doesn't have many haters. Could it squeak by on the preferential voting system?

All I know is that this is one of the strangest Oscar seasons in history, and my predictions could go 24/24 tonight, or they could go 16/24. It's that kind of year. So many different scenarios could play out, and this isn't just the Best Picture category. I'm still unconvinced that we're looking at a sure thing win for Sandra Bullock in Best Actress, despite so many pundits' insistence to the contrary. In fact, in a year when the acting categories seem like such locks (who truly believes we won't see Mo'Nique, Christoph Waltz, and Jeff Bridges all walk away happy tonight?), Best Actress just seems like a potential minefield that has everybody worried. Yes, most pundits are predicting Bullock, but there's plenty of love out there in the Academy for Carey Mulligan, Gabourey Sidibe, and of course the legend who has gone 27 years and 11 nominations without winning, Meryl Streep. (Oh, and Helen Mirren is in the race, too. I think.)

In honor of the volatility of the race, I'm reposting my nominations (unchanged), plus "Could Win" picks: in other words, possible upsets. They won't be counted in my overall record, but they're there to represent the possible twists and turns this race could take. Do I have faith in my picks? Absolutely. I have followed this race since April, and I think I have a secure grasp on what will happen. My nomination predictions were strong, beating out some of the better Oscarologists on the web, and some risks that I took (keeping Matt Damon and Penelope Cruz; believing in District 9's ardent fans to get it a Best Picture nomination) really paid off. The only major risks I'm taking in the big categories are in Original Screenplay and Actress, choosing Streep and Tarantino instead of Bullock and Boal, though even those picks aren't unheard of. Things get dicier in some of the tech categories, especially Makeup, Cinematography, and the Short categories. Like I said, things could go two very different ways, or even somewhere in the middle. It's all a house of cards.

For those I usually text with during the Oscar ceremony, I'm really sorry to say I don't have my phone with me at the moment. However, I will try to check the comments sections on both the Awkward is What We Aim For blog and Facebook, though I actually can't respond on Facebook (my technological capabilities are severely diminished when I don't have my phone). Any comments or questions you have can go either place, and I will do my best to get back to you.

I hope (for everyone's sake) that things turn out well tonight. Not everyone's favorite can win, but perhaps we can get a result that will placate as many as possible.

...as long as Sandra doesn't win. Because a single drunk dance at the Chinese Chopstick Buffet/rave doesn't forgive her Southern drawl. (Thanks, newly bespectacled Miguel Ramirez!)

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: The Cove
Could Win: Food, Inc.

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Could Win: ANYTHING. My guesses in the Short categories are purely conjecture.

Best Animated Short
Will Win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Could Win: Logorama

Best Foreign Film
Will Win: A Prophet (Un Proph├ęte)
Could Win: El Secreto de Sus Ojos

Best Makeup
Will Win: The Young Victoria
Could Win: Star Trek

Best Live Action Short
Will Win: The Door
Could Win: Kavi

Best Cinematography
Will Win: The White Ribbon
Could Win: Avatar

Side note: I feel a little crazy legitimately picking The White Ribbon, but to me, the whole thing just screams cinematography.

Best Film Editing
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Avatar

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: Yeah, like Blue Pocahontas is gonna lose here.

Best Costume Design
Will Win: The Young Victoria
Could Win: Coco Before Chanel (Coco Avant Chanel)

Best Art Direction
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: The Young Victoria (but it won't happen)

Best Original Score
Will Win: UP
Could Win: Avatar

Best Original Song
Will Win: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
Could Win: Have you heard the other songs? This one is undefeatable.

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: UP
Could Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino
Could Win: The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Up in the Air, Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Could Win: Precious, Geoffrey Fletcher

Best Director
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Could Win: James Cameron, Avatar

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Mo'Nique, Precious
Could Win: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Could Win: Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Best Actress
Will Win: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Could Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Best Actor
Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Could Win: Colin Firth, A Single Man

Best Picture
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Inglourious Basterds

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