I...am an Actor!

Not really. But the following 20 men and women do fancy themselves actors of the highest craft. And rightly so. They are this year's acting Oscar nominees.

In the weeks up to the Academy Awards ceremony, I'll be focusing on a specific area of nominations: this week acting, next week writing, the next producing/directing. I'll examine each race very closely and come up with my best judgment about the nominees' chances and who really should and will win.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Breakdown: Jenkins' real honor is to be nominated. Unfortunately, the guy didn't win at the SAG Awards, which was his best chance to win. Among not only actors, but producers, directors, writers, artists, etc., he won't be able to muster enough support to win. Langella started the season strong, but Rourke and Pitt have bogged him down. Pitt's nomination is more for the movie than for him. That leaves the two most likely candidates- Penn and Rourke. Rourke has the older vote, as well as the comeback vote. Penn has the youth vote and the Prop 8 vote. Simply because of the times, I'm betting on a Penn win. Who should win? Langella embodied the paranoia and disturbia of Richard Nixon. He deserves the trophy most of all.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Breakdown: What was said about Jenkins above applies to Leo here. Jolie, like her significant other, won't win because the nod is more for her movie. Streep, Winslet, and Hathway could all walk away with the gold on Oscar night. I'd prefer Streep to win it, because her performance was the most dynamic. The growing faction that LOVES Winslet is hoping she'll win because she's never won. Personally, I don't follow that line of thinking, but her performance is good enough to upset. Finally, there's the incredible breakout that is Hathaway. Her performance was career-redefining, and she deserves the Oscar, but she's going up against the best actresses in America. It would take a miracle.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Breakdown: Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Did I mention Ledger?

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Breakdown: The tightest race of the show, just like last year. Also just like last year, it breaks down to four serious competitors: Adams, Cruz, Davis, and Henson. Though Tomei is great, she's so overshadowed by Mickey Rourke she can't see the sunshine for anything. Davis is more deserving for Doubt than Adams is, but Adams' nomination wasn't even expected, so don't be surprised if she pulls a Tilda Swinton and takes this category. Henson is great in her role, but if the Oscars are going to reward a black actress this year, Davis is the more likely of the two. Cruz's Maria Elena is a slow burn throughout Barcelona, and she's great, but it's a comedic performance. In the Academy's eyes, that makes it easier. Davis might suffer from vote splitting with Adams, but I still see her as ultimately likelier.

Sorry, Clint. Too Bad, Kate.

OSCAR NODS ARE OFFICIALLY OUT!

And I didn't do too badly. I fared better than Kate Winslet and Clint Eastwood, at least. But more on them later. First, the scorecard.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

The Result: I got Jenkins right, but got Pitt wrong. Eastwood's snub was shocking to me, but unfortunately for the guy, it wasn't the last of his movie's snubs...

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

The Result: Winslet got punished for trying to campaign in different categories. She won't get a chance at winning for her stronger performance, April Wheeler in Revolutionary Road, because her Reader role shut it out. Hawkins lost out in favor of Leo, who is a vastly better choice.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

The Result: Poor Dev Patel got snubbed, but it's good to see Shannon here. Otherwise, no changes.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

The Result: Winslet's supporting campaign getting overruled led to an extra spot here, which, of course, went to Adams.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
The Reader, David Hare

The Result: Like I said, no surer list. My only 5-for-5.

Best Original Screenplay
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonaugh
WALL*E, Andrew Stanton

The Result: Whoops. My only true screw-up, I only managed to get one of the five right. Then again, there were more than a few come-from-nowhere nominations.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

The Result: Nolan's demeanor screwed him out of a nod, as I predicted it might. Daldry's inclusion seems to be only one part of what was a Reader comeback. Congratulations to him. He's still got no shot next to Boyle.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

The Result: I won't lie: I'm not happy that Button and Frost/Nixon both wormed their way into this category. However, The Dark Knight's exclusion meant good things for The Reader. And, like the directing category, it doesn't matter. All four will fall to Slumdog.

30 for 40. Not bad in the grand sceme of things. Still a C, but in Oscarology, that's really a passing grade. So what are my new predictions for the winners? I'm so glad I asked...

Best Actor
Should Win: Langella
Will Win: Rourke

Best Actress
Should Win: Hathaway
Will Win: Streep

Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Ledger
Will Win: Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Davis
Will Win: Cruz

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Beaufoy
Will Win: Beaufoy

Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Black
Will Win: Black

Best Director
Should Win: Boyle
Will Win: Boyle

Best Picture
Should Win: Slumdog
Will Win: Slumdog

This will be updated basically every week leading up to the Oscars on February 22nd. Now that the nominations are out, post your picks in the comments section! I'll even keep a running pool of people's picks, and determine the winner after the statues are handed out. The categories are Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture. Pick both a Should and Will Win for each; in other words, which do you believe is the best, and which do you believe will get the Oscar. Thanks for reading and posting, and keep watching for more AIWWAF OscarWatch posts!

Last Train to Oscarville

This is going to be my last Oscar Nominations post, meaning that no posts after this one will aim at predicting the nominees of the Oscars. All future Oscar posts are about predicting the WINNERS.

At least one reader pointed out to me that conceivably, things have not remained so static after the Golden Globes. Upon closer examination, I believe him correct. So, for the final time before the nominations are announced, here are my Oscar nominee predictions.

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Breakdown: Jenkins' inclusion is due to no clear fifth nominee (DiCaprio? Pitt?) and a surprisingly strong pre-Oscar awards showing. If his movie is too invisible for Oscar voters, however, watch Brad Pitt take that spot for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I do believe that Eastwood, Langella, Penn, and Rourke are guaranteed nominations.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Breakdown: Well, so much for Winslet failing to secure a nomination. Her surprise victories at the Globes will boost her here, but I hope that the more deserving Hathaway or Streep win the award. Hawkins, Jolie, Melissa Leo, and Kristin Scott Thomas could all fall in the last two slots, but personally, I'd love to see Kate Beckinsdale for Nothing But The Truth in one of those spots. Lord knows she deserves it more than Jolie.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Breakdown: Franco's out, Patel's back in, but it's all just a ridiculous game of cards at this point. Ledger's got this award sewn up, and anyone who is willing to hear any BS indicating otherwise needs to wake up and smell the Joker.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Breakdown: Well, so much for simplicity. The HFPA have made Winslet viable here again, but I really don't want her to win for such a substandard role. Give it to Cruz! Give it to Davis! Give it to Tomei! Even give it to the superbly weak Henson! BUT DON'T GIVE WINSLET THIS OSCAR! As far as nominations go, this might be the most secure category. Henson's pretty unsteady here, and she should worry about Amy Adams for Doubt or Vera Farmiga for Nothing But The Truth, but these five are the smartest bets.

Best Original Song
"The Wrestler", The Wrestler
"Barking at the Moon", Bolt
"Can I Have This Dance", High School Musical 3
"Gran Torino", Gran Torino
"Down to Earth", WALL*E

Breakdown: More competitive category than it usually is this year, even though the fear that High School Musical 3 songs could sweep the category is quelled. A new rule prohibits more than 2 songs from any one movie, in an attempt to stop what happened the last two years: three-way vote splitting from Enchanted and Dreamgirls. So HSM3 will probably only get one song in; the current, fun ballad "Can I Have This Dance" seems like a logical choice. "The Wrestler", "Down to Earth", and "Gran Torino" are all guaranteed in. Upsets could come from "Once in a Lifetime" (Cadillac Records), "I Thought I Lost You" (Bolt), and "I Want It All" (HSM3).

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
The Reader, David Hare

Breakdown: No surer list, really. Hare might get bumped off, but I doubt it.

Best Original Screenplay
Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Woody Allen
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Burn After Reading, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Rachel Getting Married, Jenny Lumet
Gran Torino, Nick Schenk

Breakdown: No less steady list. That, my friends, is the difference between Original and Adapted. Changeling, Happy-Go-Lucky, and WALL*E all could sneak onto this list, and the Coen brothers or Schenk could get bumped right off. I'm fairly confident in these five, but one word of warning: comedies are favored in this category. Right now I have three dramas to two comedies. If Happy-Go-Luckywriter Mike Leigh were to sneak in, as he is very likely to do, it'll probably be for Torino writer Schenk.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Breakdown: Van Sant's presence here irks me to no end, but what can I say? Pundits love the Milk. Nolan needs to watch his back for a more prestigious film to sweep in and take his nomination. His unappreciative, unworthy speeches for Ledger haven't been winning him points. Still, these five are about as certain as you can get in Oscarology.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Breakdown: Almost every Oscarologist has this list right now. It's widely being accepted as the final five. However, I think it stinks. For one thing, Button and Frost/Nixon have not won ONE critics' prize for Best Picture COMBINED. Meanwhile, Doubt, WALL*E, The Wrestler, and Revolutionary Road have picked up at least one EACH. Plus, I'm no fan of The Dark Knight's presence on this list. Slumdog Millionaire is the only movie that truly, wholly, 100% deserves its place here. And that's why it will win Best Picture. That's right. More than a month before showtime, before voting even takes place, I'm calling Slumdog as the Best Picture of the year.

I'll post a scorecard as well as winners' picks the day of the nominations announcements, the 22nd. Keep posted on all your AIWWAF updates as Oscar season progresses, and comment on either my Blogspot or my Facebook!

Deal with It, Cate Blanchett

I didn't fare too badly in my Golden Globe picks, going 10/16 in picking the winners either in the Should or Will Win categories. But this post isn't a scorecard for me. No, it's highlights from last night's show, as well as the big question: how does this affect the Oscars?

Ricky Gervais' Introduction
Give this man a show! Again! The Extras funnyman did exactly what he did at the Emmys last year: became the funniest presenter of the night. He riffed on Kate Winslet about her role on Extras ("Hey, Winslet! I told you! You do a Holocaust movie, win an award!"), swigging beer onstage, and telling the noisy movie stars to "Hush!". And Hugh Jackman is hosting the Oscars...why?

Hawkins' Horrendous Speech
It's a hard task to get so drunk you reach the stage of incoherent blather in the first 30 minutes of the show. Well done, then, Sally Hawkins. You've just killed your Oscar chances.

Winslet's First Win
I won't harp on the fact that Winslet should never have won for this substandard movie version of an incredible novel, and just be happy that she finally won after five nominations. But seriously, is she REALLY better than Viola Davis in Doubt or Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona?

They Gave Out TV Awards?
Could've fooled me. And, of course, when they did give out such awards, they went to big TV movies and miniseries. That is, until later...

Tracy Morgan. That is all.
Morgan's speech was easily the funniest part of the night. His deal with 30 Rock creator (and eventual Best Actress in a TV Comedy/Musical winner) Tina Fey that if Barack Obama became the President-elect, he would become the new face of the show allowed for Morgan's hysterics to come through. Major points for the random attack on Cate Blanchett.

That Guy Heath Ledger Finally Wins Something
Let this be known: I loved Ledger's performance in The Dark Knight. I think he was possibly the greatest actor of our generation. He deserves every award he gets. But am I really the only one who is over Nolan's half-assed acceptance speeches for Ledger and the faux-surprise of the audiences?

Farrell the Affable Irish Brogue
In both his presentation and acceptance last night, Colin Farrell was funny, affable, and appreciative. Plus, I love that he could actually make fun of his previous drug use, as opposed to the ever-irritating Mickey Rourke.

Speaking of Rourke...
I loved The Wrestler. Really, I did. But there is one reason and one reason ALONE that Penn did not win tonight: the HFPA is a group of sixty-something homophobes. Look for the Oscar to go to Penn, and for good reason. (Oh, and Darren Aronofsky? No one knows who you are. You're not bettering your now-developing image by flicking off the camera during Rourke's speech.)

Drinks Just Keep On Flowin' (Flowin')/Presenters Just Keep On Stumblin' (Stumblin')
I'll let you find the individual drunken fits, but my favorite goes to Emma Thompson and Dustin Hoffman, who were totally bombed and totally unfunny onstage during their presentation. They're real actors! They should know better.

Winslet's Second Win
So much for that Anne Hathaway website thing. Winslet's win here should have some effect on the Oscar race, but don't forget that the HFPA are totally in the tank for foreigners. The Oscars will be more likely to give it to Hathaway or Streep.

Rainn Wilson and Blake Lively
I don't know what's funnier: Wilson's one-liner ("Hello. We're TV actors.") or bloggers mistakenly calling Lively "Hayden Panettiere". Aheh.

OMGJOBROS.
I find it hilarious that A) the Jonas Brothers were given the Animated Feature trophy to give out, B) that on the red carpet, as they passed each other, Miley Cyrus and her mother wouldn't acknowledge the Brothers' existence, and C) that the oldest and most interesting brother, Kevin (I think, please don't hit me if I got that wrong), hasn't ditched the two douche bags formerly known as Nick and Joe (again, I think).

Mad Men Stars Get Beaten By HBO Vampire, Therapist
Well, at least it won Best Drama Series.

Oscar Frontrunners Come Up Empty Handed
Sorry, Frost/Nixon, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Doubt. We still love you despite your lack of Globes.

The Best Moments of the Night: The Slumdog and Rock Sweeps
Slumdog Millionaire goes 4 for 4. 30 Rock goes 3 for 3. You can't get much better than that.

So what effect does this have on the Oscar race? In all honesty, absolutely none. Winslet will probably win one of the two awards she did tonight, but she won't win both. Rourke will get soundly beaten by Penn. Ledger... well, he'll still win. And Slumdog Millionaire will win each category it won last night (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Score).

I will point out one possible longshot that now has a chance to get into the Best Picture race. As has been the case the past two years, a smaller, funny movie makes it into the big race (Little Miss Sunshine, Juno). If any movie will do it this year, it's the Golden Globe winner for Best Picture, Comedy/Musical: Vicky Cristina Barcelona. But perhaps it's only a pipe dream.

Regardless, nominations for the Oscars are ten days away. Keep watching Awkward is What We Aim For as well as my Facebook to see future Oscar coverage!

Golden Globe Predix

I don't blog about anything besides movie awards anymore... Oh, well.

The Golden Globes are this Sunday, and they will honor the best in film and television in 2008. Considered the predecessors to the Oscars, they are especially accurate in the acting categories. Not so much in the film categories. Last year, winner Atonement barely scraped a Best Picture nod at the Oscars. Still, the nominations match up fairly well, so without further ado (because there's much ado about Oscars), here are my 66th Annual Golden Globe predictions.

Film

Best Actor - Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Should Win: Langella
Will Win: Penn

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell - In Bruges
James Franco - Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey

Should Win: Bardem
Will Win: Hoffman

Best Actress - Drama
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Should Win: Hathaway
Will Win: Winslet

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey

Should Win: McDormand
Will Win: Hawkins

Best Director
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road

Should Win: Boyle
Will Win: Fincher

Best Film - Drama
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Slumdog
Will Win: Button

Best Film - Musical or Comedy
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Should Win: Barcelona
Will Win: Barcelona

Best Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth
Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
The Reader - David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy

Should Win: Shanley
Will Win: Morgan

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Cruise - Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Should Win: Ledger
Will Win: Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Should Win: Davis
Will Win: Cruz

Television

Best Actor - Drama Series
Gabriel Byrne - In Treatment
Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Hugh Laurie - House
Jonathan Rhys Meyers - The Tudors

Should Win: Laurie
Will Win: Hamm

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Steve Carell - The Office
Kevin Connolly - Entourage
David Duchovny - Californication
Tony Shalhoub - Monk

Should Win: Baldwin
Will Win: Duchovny

Best Actress - Drama Series
Sally Field - Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay - Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
January Jones - Mad Men
Anna Paquin - True Blood
Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer

Should Win: Jones
Will Win: Sedgwick

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy Series
Christina Applegate - Samantha Who?
America Ferrera - Ugly Betty
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Debra Messing - The Starter Wife
Mary-Louise Parker - Weeds

Should Win: Applegate
Will Win: Fey

Best Series - Drama
Dexter
House
In Treatment
Mad Men
True Blood

Should Win: Mad Men
Will Win: Mad Men

[edit]Best Series - Musical or Comedy
30 Rock
Californication
Entourage
The Office
Weeds

Should Win: 30 Rock
Will Win: 30 Rock