The Most Predictable Oscars Ever

Sorry this is so late, guys. I'm still recovering from my 75% score. Then again, a 75% is a B in Oscarology. But I'm taking it and running with it.

I went 18/24 overall on Sunday, and 10/12 in the major categories. Unfortunately for the readers, the closest score next to mine was 9/12, so there was no winner. Thanks to you guys who did contribute, though, and for recognition's sake, the runner-up to me was Nicollette, with 9/12, missing only Director in addition to my misses.

Speaking of which, here's a breakdown of Oscar Night, including the awards I missed.

My God, That Set
I'm pretty sure that the set was designed by God himself, because it was BEAUTIFUL. The crystal curtain alone was enough to get the guy an Oscar himself for Art Direction. It was gorgeous.

Wow, She Can Sing
That opening number from Hugh Jackman was great. Better was Anne Hathaway's involvement. I thought she was actually a decent singer, much to my surprise. And "I haven't seen The Reader would become the rallying cry of this Oscars.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz! (1/1) Don't worry, honey, even if you had fainted, you still would have looked beautiful.

Speaking of Beautiful...
Getting the worst snubbing for the most beautiful dress: Marisa Tomei.

Steve and Tina Take the Screenplay Categories
Don't remember who actually won the Screenplay categories? I don't blame you, what with the hilarity Steve Martin and Tina Fey brought upon the audience. By the way, it was Dustin Lance Black for Milk for Original and Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire for Adapted. (3/3) And the Slumdog Count is at 1.

Weirdest. Title. Ever.
After the completely expected win for WALL*E, the animated short La Maison en Petits Cubes won in its category. I forgot to be angry that Presto lost. I was too busy trying to prounounce the winner's title. (4/5)

Carrie's New Man: James Bond!
Sarah Jessica Parker and Daniel Craid aren't the weirdest pairing, but they're up there. Still, props for getting through Best Art Direction and Best Makeup (both Benjamin Button) and Best Costume Design (The Duchess) quickly, though it was the first set of categories that could easily put you to sleep... (6/8)

Give Ben Stiller His Oscar
His biting parody of Joaquin Phoenix's drugged-out performance on David Letterman was the most brilliant moment of the night. And Natalie Portman's reference to his "Haasidic meth lab" doled out the funniest line of the night. By the by, Slumdog took their award, Best Cinematography, raising the SD Count to 2. (7/9)

A Toyland and a Broken Doll
Sorry to Toyland's producers that Seth Rogen laughed at the German title. Seth, much to your dismay, German isn't funny simply because it's German. Nor are you funny simply because Judd Apatow makes your career. (8/10) Then there was that musical number, and oh, God, it was awful. Beyonce resembled a broken Barbie doll (never mind her lip-synching), the younger couples couldn't hold their own, and Hugh Jackman cancelled out his goodwill from the first performance with this disaster. Sorry, Hugh, you're back to neutral for me.

Best Supporting Obviousness
Heath Ledger did deserve this, and I'm glad his family's acceptance speech was eelegant, to say the least. But shocking? Not in the least. (9/11)

Documentarians
Worst two categories of the show? Quite possibly. Man on Wire takes Best Documentary Feature, and Smile Pinki takes Best Documentary Short Subject. (10/13)

Will Smith Presents the Rest of the Show
I'll forgive the Iron Man-type entrance because Will Smith had to present four awards in a row. I'm not joking. Best Visual Effects (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Best Sound Mixing (The Dark Knight's second win of the night), and the first two awards of the Slumdog 4-in-a-row: Best Sound Mixing and Best Film Editing. (The SD Count is now at 4, and my record is 13/17.)

Jai Ho!
Raising the SD Count to 6, Slumdog Millionaire prevailed over a really, really, really, REALLY bad Best Original Song medley and a bad "Jai Ho!" cover by the Pussycat Dolls (ugh) to win Best Original Song and Best Original Score. Which will both be forgotten by next year. (15/19)

What in God's name is Departures?!
Best Foreign Film? Not The Class. Not Waltz with Bashir. No, instead, it's some movie from Japan. That I've never heard of. Stupid (15/20).

The Big Four
Best Director to Danny Boyle (good), Best Actress to Kate Winslet (boo), Best Actor to Sean Penn (yay?), and Best Picture to Slumdog Millionaire (YES!). And with an SD Count of 8 and my personal record fo (18/24). And, like the Oscar night itself, you just want it all to end about two hours in.

Final Length: 3 hrs. and 27 min.
Final Grade: B+ (but it's weak)

Pick Yer Horses

This is it. No more analysis. No more oddsmaking. Just my predictions for the winners of twelve big categories for this year’s Academy Awards. And now it’s time for you to make yours. As stated earlier, however, anyone who attends SMCA currently is welcome to attempt predictions. For the winner, the one who out-predicts me by the largest margin, your prize will be a collection of candy, other prizes, and one Academy Award-winning film, one that will be a personal favorite of mine.

Here’s how it’ll work. In the comments section of this post on Facebook (and only Facebook), you all will put, in the same order I use here, your twelve predicted winners for Oscar night. Not who you want to win; who you truly believe will walk away with the gold. Your first entry is your only entry; you cannot change after you’ve predicted. To win, you must out-predict me.

With all that said, let’s get started!

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Will Win: Sean Penn, Milk

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Will Win: Meryl Streep, Doubt

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Will Win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Original Screenplay
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black

Will Win: Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley

Will Win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Song
"Down to Earth" from WALL-E, Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman (music), Peter Gabriel (lyrics)
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman and M.I.A.

Will Win: “Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)

Best Foreign Language Film
Revanche (Austria)
The Class (France)
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
Departures (Japan)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

Will Win: Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Will Win: WALL-E

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat
Defiance, James Newton Howard
Milk, Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman
WALL-E, Thomas Newman

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Accepting your picks now! Good luck!

I Have Special Skills. Skills That Allow Me...

...that will allow me to pick the Oscar winners. Sorry, bad parody of a bad movie.

I hope you're ready, readers, because after this post, you have only three days to prepare to make your picks. As a reminder, after I place my predictions in a note entitled "Pick Yer Horses", you will have the full week to make your predictions in the twelve categories I have chosen. Those categories are: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Original Song, Best Director, Best Original Score, Best Animated Feature, and Best Picture. You must bet in every category, and the picks must be posted in the comments section of that note. If your picks outscore mine, you will get a fabulous prize package of candy and a few other special things. (Including a copy of a favorite Oscar-winning film of mine!) Anyone who attends SMCA is welcome to place bets. Remember, you have to outpick me; tying me won't help you.

Now that that's out of the way, onto the last four categories!

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Breakdown: Um... is this really a question? Other than Heath Ledger, this is the surest bet at the show this year. WALL-E.

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat
Defiance, James Newton Howard
Milk, Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman
WALL-E, Thomas Newman

Breakdown: Does anyone remember Elfman's music? Newman's most memorable music wasn't original, so it doesn't count in this category. Howard's music was great, but it's hard to win on your movie's only nomination. Desplat's music is the only rival to Rahman's, but there's not much contest. Rahman's got this one sewn up.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Breakdown: Van Sant didn't do a whole lot of directing, just letting his actors do what they do best. Daldry screwed up a brilliant book. Fincher's a terrible campaigner, and is only poisoning the voters' minds. Howard took a few too many liberties with the truth. Boyle's already won all major awards and will take this easy.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Breakdown: Throw it to the Dog. Milk isn't nearly as inspiring as it should be for its subject matter. The Reader and Frost/Nixon just weren't strong enough to qualify for nominations, much less a win. It could be the traditionalistic Button, but with the recent awards sweep, I would bet anything that Slumdog will take it.

All right guys, get ready. Sunday will be the start of the Inaugural AIWWAF Oscar Predict-Off!

"...What's 'In Brugjez'?"

Say that title phonetically. I had someone ask me that earlier this week. *hangs head in shame*

I know I promised y'all the writing categories this week, but I'm throwing in Best Original Song and Best Foreign Language Film for flavor. Next week, along with Best Picture and Best Director, you'll also get Best Original Score and Best Animated Film. Keep those categories in mind, and start doing your research, because you'll need that knowledge soon...

Best Original Screenplay
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black

Breakdown: AKA The Category That Screwed Woody Allen and Jenny Lumet. Not that I'm bitter or anything. I mean, Lumet only crafted the best wedding film's script in recent memory, Rachel Getting Married. And Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona may have been his funniest, sexiest script since 2005's Match Point, and THAT got an Oscar nom, but who cares, really? No, I'm not bitter. Not bitter at all. One good thing did happen, though: Nick Schenk's tragic Gran Torino script got left out, as part of the film's overall snub. Out of the films that were nominated, WALL-E, though a great film in so many respects, shouldn't win because it almost completely ignores the most difficult part of screenwriting: dialogue. Frozen River's nod was great, and that's all it'll get. Happy-Go-Lucky couldn't get its star nominated, so the script's victory feels very dark horse. Like black horse. Black Horse and the Cherry Tree-type dark horse. That leaves it to the incredibly funny In Bruges and the bland, stylized Milk. Though McDonagh deserves it, I'm afraid Black's too young and talented for the Academy to ignore. (By the way, I say that in a good way, not a bad one.)

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley

Breakdown: For all of y'all who thought The Dark Knight deserved a nod here, go back and watch TDK again, paying special attention to before and after Bruce Wayne's toast at the party for Harvey Dent. The writing is truly terrible. Okay, moving on to the nominated scripts. The play adaptations will vote-split, so Morgan and Shanley are out of luck. Roth's gonna get a lot of backlash for essentially remaking his Forrest Gump screenplay and merging it with an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story. Also, Fitzgerald needed only 12 pages for his story. Why did Roth need a 3-hour movie? Hare's script pales in comparison to the original book, and his faux-happy ending still sickens me. So Beaufoy should walk away with this trophy easy.

Best Original Song
"Down to Earth" from WALL-E, Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman (music), Peter Gabriel (lyrics)
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman and M.I.A.

Breakdown: How will this go? The Disney route? Then "Earth" wins. The celebrity route? The M.I.A. collaboration "O...Saya" takes it. The real best song? "The Wrestler" will...oh, wait. If they really give it to the best song nominated here, it'll be for "Jai Ho", but I'm betting on "Earth".

Best Foreign Language Film
Revanche (Austria)
The Class (France)
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
Departures (Japan)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

Breakdown: I liked inevitable winner Bashir. I'll be happy when it wins. It's a good movie. Not the best movie in this group, though. That honor goes to the French film. The Class is brilliant, beautiful, and absolutely incredible. But it's not Bashir, and this year, that's all that matters.

Next week's post will go over the last four categories. Then, one week from the big show, I'll post my picks for those 12 categories. I want everyone I tag to post their picks. Whomever beats me by the largest margin will get a prize (read: candy). The caveat is that you must BEAT me. Tying me is no good, and even if you beat me by a good margin, unless you're the #1, you won't win the big prize. All picks must be on the post entitled "Pick Yer Horse", that will be up on February 15th.

Good luck to everyone! Start researching Oscar blogs and get ready to place your bets!