There’s never a reason to avoid a movie because of what bloggers say. Why? As a general rule, bloggers have the worst tastes a human being can possibly possess. (Witness: the Snakes on a Plane hysteria.)
This awards season, many movies are being released, then immediately skewered by bloggers. One such movie is Doubt, the play-turned-screen drama from John Patrick Shanley starring Meryl Streep, Amy Adams, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, and Viola Davis. The movie has done well with critics and awards alike, and is the leading contender at the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards, with 5 total nominations.
However, a number of bloggers who saw early screenings of the flick panned the film, its direction, and Streep’s performance. The negative buzz severely hampered Doubt’s early hype, and might’ve affected early box office performance.
After seeing Doubt yesterday, I can confirm that the movie is an absolute marvel. Streep bests any previous performance of hers save Sophie’s Choice, and should most certainly win the Oscar. Hoffman is a marvel to watch and is the perfect sparring partner for Streep. Davis, though only onscreen for 12 minutes, is a powerhouse. Adams is subtle but excellent. The direction is solid. The script is stellar. But the movie does lack a certain critical element: that oomph necessary to make it a serious Best Picture contender.
However, the movie is still stellar. It will likely get nominations in the Best Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay categories. This calls for some edits to my Oscar predictions.
Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Breakdown: For now, Penn's frontrunner status is safe. He should be wary of Langella, though. As "Tricky Dick" Nixon, Langella is a wonder. Eastwood takes DiCaprio's spot, but really, both he and Pitt are nothing but placeholders.
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Breakdown: With Winslet's major snubs racking up, and the movie's buzz faltering, it looks like a Hathaway/Streep race. Look now for Streep to take the honor.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Breakdown: I underestimated Thunder's appeal, and Downey looks like the man to take the nod for it. Franco and Brolin are stellar complements to Penn. But, as has been stated again and again, it's Ledger's race to lose.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Breakdown: I'm really getting interested in this race, because even though only two of the candidates have any shot at winning, they are both incredibly good. Davis' scene in Doubt is arguably the best scene in the movie. Her role is small, but she burns a hole in the screen. Will her short but oh-so-sweet time onscreen be enough to pull an upset over Cruz?
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Breakdown: I have a lot of confidence in Boyle now. Fincher's movie didn't get half the praising critiques it needed, and Nolan's masterpiece is feeling pretty neglected these days with no early awards. Boyle should watch out for Howard, but he should have an easy time getting the gold.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Breakdown: I'm not confident with Doubt's position on this list, but with Revolutionary Road out, something had to take its place. With The Dark Knight having fallen from grace, it was between Doubt and WALL*E for that final spot. However, it ultimately doesn't matter. Millionaire really has this sewn up.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Oscarology: The Most Imprecise Science
Why is predicting winners and losers of Oscars so difficult in advance? It's almost impossible to predict the nominees without missing a few here and there. Part of the problem is that so many films aren't even out yet. Yes, Oscarologists are expected to predict five nominees and a winner in categories where several films are still post-production.
So forgive me if the following attempt is a crapshoot. Frankly, that would be par for the course.
The nominees are as chosen by The Envelope's Buzzmeter, with slight modifications where I deemed them necessary.
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Breakdown: Penn's the sure thing in this. Rourke was generating a lot of buzz early on, but it doesn't help that he is, um, an awful human being. (Not that Penn's any saint, either, but at least he didn't lie throughout his New York Times profile...) Langella's getting some traction for his bombastic performance as Richard Nixon. Pitt's barely hanging on to his footing in this category, as is DiCaprio. One of them will likely fall off the radar before the nominations. To who? My bet's on Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino. But it's all a moot point, anyway. The Oscar should and will go to Penn.
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Breakdown: Winslet has a problem. She's too good in two movies. While this would never seem to be a negative, I'm afraid she's going to beat herself. Not only does she have Road, she also has The Reader. Pitifully, she is attempting to campaign in the Supporting Race for her Reader role, but she's got no case there. No, she'll have to choose which movie she wants the nod for, something she isn't doing right now. Still, with Streep getting mixed reviews (there's some Doubt she's as good as was expected) and Angelina Jolie falling off the radar once again (last year, for A Mighty Heart, this year for Changeling), there aren't many choices left. Leo is a wonder in River, and Thomas is a powerhouse, but I'm gonna go the road less traveled and say Hathaway should take home the Oscar gold. Who will win, though? Too close to call at this point.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Breakdown: ...Do I really have to say anything? Ledger is the year's surest bet of all. However, I do want to note something strange. Patel, who is the lead in Slumdog, is being entered in Supporting categories, making him the male Winslet in The Reader. I'm afraid this will ultimately work against him, and his spot might go to either James Franco for Milk, or Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder. Ledger's one spoiler? Hoffman. The Academy loves him, so if anyone is going to take this away from the Joker, it's gonna be Hoffman's pedophile priest.
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Breakdown: This is a weird year in this category. After a ridiculously strong Supporting Actress category last year (Blanchett, Ryan, Dee, and Swinton, an ultimately undeserving winner), Oscarologists are having to pull random actresses from movies nominated in other categories (DeWitt, Tomei), all of whom do solid work, to fill spots. Right now, it looks like a two-woman race. Davis is a powerhouse in Doubt, and manages to "act Streep off the screen in only two scenes". The frontrunner, however, is Cruz. Personally, I loved Barcelona, and to see it get any awards recognition is great. I personally question Cruz's performance as Oscar-caliber, but it is a fantastic performance, and her chemistry with Javier Bardem is smoldering. Plus, it's status as a comedic performance is helpful in the Supporting race, because, like Jennifer Hudson two years ago, a nontraditional breakout performance can win easily. So safely bet on Cruz to win.
Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, Burn After Reading
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Nick Schenk, Gran Torino
Breakdown: Yet another great year for the Original Screenplay after Diablo Cody's much-deserved win last year for Juno. All of these presumptive nominees are deserving. Allen created a world outside of his much-loved New York that is his best work in years. Black and Lumet are both young breakthroughs with powerful scripts. Lumet, daughter of the legendary Sidney Lumet, crafted a wedding every member of the audience felt like a part of. Black broke barriers in writing the impossible script, after more polished and professional writers all failed. The Coens, longtime Academy favorites, wrote a whacked-out screenplay that made me laugh more than any other movie this year. Schenk's already racking up early awards, and his screenplay, though appearing to be nothing more than a "bigot finds his heart weepie", belies its depth and power. So what wins? Though Lumet really should take home the gold, Black is unbeatable this year.
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Breakdown: What a boys' club. Though no one is more deserving than Nolan, I have a sickening feeling it's going to go to Fincher, who is, like Rourke, an awful human being. (Not kidding, either; he's already abusing the people working for him.) There is one chance for upset: Boyle. If you've noticed, Slumdog doesn't pop up in many categories, but is the frontrunner in the Best Picture race. This is, most certainly, due to Boyle's expert direction. So, even though it's probably a pipe dream, I'll pick Boyle to win.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Breakdown: This is it. The big one. With just more than a month to go, this race is far more wide open than it should be. Possibilites not on my nominees list include WALL*E and The Dark Knight. So why the five above? The frontrunners are Slumdog and Button. Frost/Nixon is getting glowing reviews, as is Milk. Road rounds out the five for its overall appeal; however, it is by far the weakest of the bunch, and is susceptible to the two underdogs. So what wins? Too close to call, again, but as far as who should win, Slumdog takes it by a long shot.
So what do you think? Should The Dark Knight get that Best Picture nod? What about Ledger? Will sentimentality see him through? What will be the biggest snubs? Leave a comment either on Facebook or on Awkward is What We Aim For at http://awkwardaim.blogspot.com!
So forgive me if the following attempt is a crapshoot. Frankly, that would be par for the course.
The nominees are as chosen by The Envelope's Buzzmeter, with slight modifications where I deemed them necessary.
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Breakdown: Penn's the sure thing in this. Rourke was generating a lot of buzz early on, but it doesn't help that he is, um, an awful human being. (Not that Penn's any saint, either, but at least he didn't lie throughout his New York Times profile...) Langella's getting some traction for his bombastic performance as Richard Nixon. Pitt's barely hanging on to his footing in this category, as is DiCaprio. One of them will likely fall off the radar before the nominations. To who? My bet's on Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino. But it's all a moot point, anyway. The Oscar should and will go to Penn.
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Breakdown: Winslet has a problem. She's too good in two movies. While this would never seem to be a negative, I'm afraid she's going to beat herself. Not only does she have Road, she also has The Reader. Pitifully, she is attempting to campaign in the Supporting Race for her Reader role, but she's got no case there. No, she'll have to choose which movie she wants the nod for, something she isn't doing right now. Still, with Streep getting mixed reviews (there's some Doubt she's as good as was expected) and Angelina Jolie falling off the radar once again (last year, for A Mighty Heart, this year for Changeling), there aren't many choices left. Leo is a wonder in River, and Thomas is a powerhouse, but I'm gonna go the road less traveled and say Hathaway should take home the Oscar gold. Who will win, though? Too close to call at this point.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Breakdown: ...Do I really have to say anything? Ledger is the year's surest bet of all. However, I do want to note something strange. Patel, who is the lead in Slumdog, is being entered in Supporting categories, making him the male Winslet in The Reader. I'm afraid this will ultimately work against him, and his spot might go to either James Franco for Milk, or Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder. Ledger's one spoiler? Hoffman. The Academy loves him, so if anyone is going to take this away from the Joker, it's gonna be Hoffman's pedophile priest.
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Breakdown: This is a weird year in this category. After a ridiculously strong Supporting Actress category last year (Blanchett, Ryan, Dee, and Swinton, an ultimately undeserving winner), Oscarologists are having to pull random actresses from movies nominated in other categories (DeWitt, Tomei), all of whom do solid work, to fill spots. Right now, it looks like a two-woman race. Davis is a powerhouse in Doubt, and manages to "act Streep off the screen in only two scenes". The frontrunner, however, is Cruz. Personally, I loved Barcelona, and to see it get any awards recognition is great. I personally question Cruz's performance as Oscar-caliber, but it is a fantastic performance, and her chemistry with Javier Bardem is smoldering. Plus, it's status as a comedic performance is helpful in the Supporting race, because, like Jennifer Hudson two years ago, a nontraditional breakout performance can win easily. So safely bet on Cruz to win.
Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, Burn After Reading
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Nick Schenk, Gran Torino
Breakdown: Yet another great year for the Original Screenplay after Diablo Cody's much-deserved win last year for Juno. All of these presumptive nominees are deserving. Allen created a world outside of his much-loved New York that is his best work in years. Black and Lumet are both young breakthroughs with powerful scripts. Lumet, daughter of the legendary Sidney Lumet, crafted a wedding every member of the audience felt like a part of. Black broke barriers in writing the impossible script, after more polished and professional writers all failed. The Coens, longtime Academy favorites, wrote a whacked-out screenplay that made me laugh more than any other movie this year. Schenk's already racking up early awards, and his screenplay, though appearing to be nothing more than a "bigot finds his heart weepie", belies its depth and power. So what wins? Though Lumet really should take home the gold, Black is unbeatable this year.
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Breakdown: What a boys' club. Though no one is more deserving than Nolan, I have a sickening feeling it's going to go to Fincher, who is, like Rourke, an awful human being. (Not kidding, either; he's already abusing the people working for him.) There is one chance for upset: Boyle. If you've noticed, Slumdog doesn't pop up in many categories, but is the frontrunner in the Best Picture race. This is, most certainly, due to Boyle's expert direction. So, even though it's probably a pipe dream, I'll pick Boyle to win.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Breakdown: This is it. The big one. With just more than a month to go, this race is far more wide open than it should be. Possibilites not on my nominees list include WALL*E and The Dark Knight. So why the five above? The frontrunners are Slumdog and Button. Frost/Nixon is getting glowing reviews, as is Milk. Road rounds out the five for its overall appeal; however, it is by far the weakest of the bunch, and is susceptible to the two underdogs. So what wins? Too close to call, again, but as far as who should win, Slumdog takes it by a long shot.
So what do you think? Should The Dark Knight get that Best Picture nod? What about Ledger? Will sentimentality see him through? What will be the biggest snubs? Leave a comment either on Facebook or on Awkward is What We Aim For at http://awkwardaim.blogspot.com!
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Oscar Finalists Dropping Like Flies
Well, the moral of the story is not to bet on anything too early.
As of right now, there is no clear Best Picture winner for this year's Academy Awards. Last year, despite the valiant attempts of Juno fanatics, No Country for Old Men had all but won the Best Picture statuette. This year, for those looking for a clear frontrunners, no such luck.
Australia, a onetime surefire winner, fell by the wayside when it debuted to middling reviews. Baz Luhrmann + Nicole Kidman =/= Oscar glory, it seems. Moulin Rouge! was just a fluke! Ahehehe...
Doubt is all but finished, what with Meryl Streep getting knocked around for her less-than-realistic portrayal of her character.
Milk has no shot at Best Picture. No shot whatsoever. Why? It's too gay. That's not my opinion, of course; that will be the opinion of every homophobic member of the Academy voting bloc. Brokeback Mountain couldn't even win, ant it didn't even say the word "gay".
So what movies are left? The Curious Case of Benjamin Button looks like it'll be the big winner of the year, but there isn't the same definitiveness over it that we saw with Old Men. Frost/Nixon looks like a contender, but in a politically-charged year, it's not often that a political film would win.
The big wild card is Slumdog Millionaire, AKA the Little Miss Sunshine of this year. Quite a few Oscarologists are saying that because of Slumdog's high Rooting Factor (it's Dickensian, if you will), it has a chance of usurping Button's frontrunner status. An underdog Slumdog? Looking very possible.
The Dark Knight, in a stronger year, might fall by the wayside. However, with little competition surrounding it, I would consider it a lock for a nomination. However, it won't win. Superhero flicks just don't win Oscars, no matter how many Heath Ledgers it has.
So what fills the fifth spot? WALL*E got strong buzz right after coming out, but the chatter fizzled after a while. Rachel Getting Married is incredible, but I don't think it's buzzy enough. Revolutionary Road has the stars and the history (Leo and Kate together again!), but, like Rachel, buzz just isn't strong enough. Finally, I've Loved You So Long has a bombastic performance from Kristin Scott Thomas, and she'll get honored with a nomination. However, the movie isn't in English. Foreign flicks are like superhero flicks. They just don't fly in the Best Picture race.
What will win? It's way too early to take a guess, but I will anyway. Button looks like a surefire winner, filled with stars (Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton), length, technical prowess, etc. Still, don't count out the Chariots of Fire factor in Slumdog.
This is a fairly weak year, so the winner may not really be Oscar-caliber. But something's gotta win.
...Go Rachel Getting Married.
As of right now, there is no clear Best Picture winner for this year's Academy Awards. Last year, despite the valiant attempts of Juno fanatics, No Country for Old Men had all but won the Best Picture statuette. This year, for those looking for a clear frontrunners, no such luck.
Australia, a onetime surefire winner, fell by the wayside when it debuted to middling reviews. Baz Luhrmann + Nicole Kidman =/= Oscar glory, it seems. Moulin Rouge! was just a fluke! Ahehehe...
Doubt is all but finished, what with Meryl Streep getting knocked around for her less-than-realistic portrayal of her character.
Milk has no shot at Best Picture. No shot whatsoever. Why? It's too gay. That's not my opinion, of course; that will be the opinion of every homophobic member of the Academy voting bloc. Brokeback Mountain couldn't even win, ant it didn't even say the word "gay".
So what movies are left? The Curious Case of Benjamin Button looks like it'll be the big winner of the year, but there isn't the same definitiveness over it that we saw with Old Men. Frost/Nixon looks like a contender, but in a politically-charged year, it's not often that a political film would win.
The big wild card is Slumdog Millionaire, AKA the Little Miss Sunshine of this year. Quite a few Oscarologists are saying that because of Slumdog's high Rooting Factor (it's Dickensian, if you will), it has a chance of usurping Button's frontrunner status. An underdog Slumdog? Looking very possible.
The Dark Knight, in a stronger year, might fall by the wayside. However, with little competition surrounding it, I would consider it a lock for a nomination. However, it won't win. Superhero flicks just don't win Oscars, no matter how many Heath Ledgers it has.
So what fills the fifth spot? WALL*E got strong buzz right after coming out, but the chatter fizzled after a while. Rachel Getting Married is incredible, but I don't think it's buzzy enough. Revolutionary Road has the stars and the history (Leo and Kate together again!), but, like Rachel, buzz just isn't strong enough. Finally, I've Loved You So Long has a bombastic performance from Kristin Scott Thomas, and she'll get honored with a nomination. However, the movie isn't in English. Foreign flicks are like superhero flicks. They just don't fly in the Best Picture race.
What will win? It's way too early to take a guess, but I will anyway. Button looks like a surefire winner, filled with stars (Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton), length, technical prowess, etc. Still, don't count out the Chariots of Fire factor in Slumdog.
This is a fairly weak year, so the winner may not really be Oscar-caliber. But something's gotta win.
...Go Rachel Getting Married.
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