Oscar Predictions Revised: Fincher Up, Leo Down

The Oscar Predictions tab has been updated to reflect new predictions. My current bet is The King's Speech/Fincher/Firth/Portman/Bale/Adams, but we'll have to see exactly what turns this race takes. I'm probably going to add the other 12 categories sometime soon--all depends on time and effort I can put in.

Am I overestimating how Leo will be affected by her rogue FYC campaign? If she loses, will it be to Steinfeld instead of Adams? Is there any drama in any of these races other than Best Supporting Actress? Take it to the comments!