Oscar nomination morning has come and gone, and we are left with a strange group of nominees. Certainly, most, if not all, are deserving, but there were a few strange occurrences.
For example, 127 Hours wound up being way stronger than most predicted, and Black Swan a lot weaker. Academy voters were dumber than assumed and nominated Hailee Steinfeld as a Supporting Actress. The directors' branch ignored Christopher Nolan for Inception, proving their bias against him after three different DGA nominations that weren't converted to Oscar nominations. And the snubs for Mila Kunis and Andrew Garfield particularly sting.
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
We knew that this would come down to eleven films vying for ten spots, but I assumed that the Academy wouldn't respond to Winter's Bone. My mistake--they preferred gritty realism over the genre junk that was The Town.
Should Win: Black Swan (but I'm happy with The Social Network)
Will Win: The Social Network (The King's Speech is coming up fast though)
Prediction Score: 9/10 (10/10 with Spoiler, but this wasn't tough--like I said, there were really only 11 movies for 10 spots)
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter
The snub for Christopher Nolan hurts. The movie is nominated for Best Picture, the screenplay is nominated--what happened here? Congratulations to the Coens for their nomination, though: I do love True Grit and am happy to see them nominated. Just not over my Best Director winner.
Should Win: Aronofsky (should have been Nolan...but I do love Aronofsky's work in Black Swan)
Will Win: Fincher (even if The Social Network doesn't win Best Picture)
Prediction Score: 4/5
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Not much to be said here. This should be a slam dunk for Portman. I'm happy for Williams' nomination, though, as well as Kidman's.
Should Win and Will Win: Portman
Prediction Score: 5/5
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
I had Bardem in the fifth slot! Why did I change it? I thought they would love The Fighter a lot more than they did, but it turns out that True Grit is more their tastes for Americana.
Should Win: Franco (I love Eisenberg, too)
Will Win: Firth (I'm gonna pretend he's winning for A Single Man)
Prediction Score: 4/5 (5/5 with Spoiler)
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
*sniff* Andrew Garfield... it's a weird year for me when three of my winners in the top six categories (Director, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress) don't even get nominated. It's especially weird when two of the nominees are arguably co-lead performances (Bale and Rush). I really love the Renner nomination--in two years, the up-and-comer has two Oscar nominations. A great record for him--and he completely deserves it.
Should Win: Rush
Will Win: Bale
Prediction Score: 4/5 (5/5 with Spoiler)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
The snubs of the Black Swan women is irritating, but it looks like they didn't really like Black Swan much at all. Thank God it got the Picture, Director and Actress nods, plus the crucial Editing nod. Of course, Amanda Peet (Please Give) and Marion Cotillard (Inception) weren't nominated, but I was expecting that.
Should Win: Weaver
Will Win: Adams (just a gut feeling)
Prediction Score: 4/5 (5/5 with Spoiler)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Various Authors, Toy Story 3
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone
127 Hours had legs, which was surprising. Otherwise, business as usual here. This one belongs to Sorkin.
Should Win and Will Win: The Social Network
Prediction Score: 4/5
Best Original Screenplay
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Various Authors, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler, The King’s Speech
By accident, I called Leigh spoiling the party with Another Year, but I figured it would be in for The Fighter rather than the well-received screenplay for Black Swan. Not only that, but my only nominated original screenplay, Easy A, was predictably snubbed here. Ah, well. Can't win them all.
Should Win: Inception
Will Win: The King's Speech
Prediction Score: 4/5 (5/5 with Spoiler)
Best Original Song
“I See the Light,” Tangled
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
“We Belong Together,” Toy Story 3
"Coming Home," Country Strong
I don't get why there's only four nominations. I also don't get why "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from Burlesque got snubbed--if I had to pick a winner, it would be that song. As it stands, I like this group of songs, but not any song in particular.
Should Win: ...I don't like ANY of these
Will Win: "I See the Light," Tangled
Prediction Score: 3/4 (4/4 with Spoiler)
Best Original Score
A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Yes! I finally got a hard category exactly right. Bully for me.
Should Win: The Social Network
Will Win: The King's Speech
Prediction Score: 5/5! I'm really proud of that one.
Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
I should have known, through the Persepolis rule, that an artsier third choice would be nominated to accompany Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. I was thrown off by all the precursor love for Despicable Me.
Should Win and Will Win: Toy Story 3
Prediction Score: 2/3
Best Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
No Waiting for 'Superman' is a gigantic surprise. Not only did that seem to be a surefire nominee, it looked to be a surefire winner. But now... I'm not sure what it goes to.
Should Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Will Win: Inside Job
Prediction Score: 3/5
How did you do in your personal predictions? Better than me? Worse? About the same? What are the most egregious snubs in your book? Take it to the comments!
1 comment:
so sad/shocked by the missing garfield/kunis in supporting areas. also, very surprised that if williams is up for best actress gosling wouldn't be up for best actor-- because that was totally his story. such a lack of black swan respect. i'm disappointed.
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