A Different Type of Top Ten

Thanks to everyone who's said nice things about my last post, the Top Ten American Idols. To follow it up, I've compiled another Top Ten American Idol list, but this one isn't an achievement to be on; this is the worst ten Idols of all time. Unlike the first list, post-show experience has nothing to do with this ranking. Only Idol performances qualify a contestant for this list. Note that this is incredibly subjective; one look at WhatNottoSing.com (which is a site I highly recommend for any Idol fan) shows who the Bottom Ten would be on performance merit alone, and the two lists don't exactly match up. Still, sometimes inability to sing is relative, and with that warning, I present my Bottom Ten Idols Ever.

10) Bucky Covington
Don't remember Bucky? Consider yourself lucky. The country crooner was part of the legendarily talented Season Five group, but his performances were anything but good. His incredibly mediocre (oxymoron? discuss) performances wouldn't have won him any singing contest, and while he slid by, power singer Mandisa (she lost her last name somewhere, have you seen it?) was eliminated. The guy couldn't even perform well in his own genre (see Best I Ever Had), so his elimination during Queen week couldn't have been more welcome.

9) Scott MacIntyre
Let me preface this one by saying I think letting a blind singer compete on American Idol is a bang-up idea. Blind musicians like Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles have given us some of the best songs of the past century. Still, giving them a pass simply because they're handicapped is just condescending and, ultimately, pointless. Scott still finished ninth after a string of bad performances, and the endless debate from the judges about whether or not he should play the piano was boring and distracting. Scott always conducted himself with grace and poise, despite insensitive and demeaning treatment from the show. Still, he was no world-class singer, and when he exited as poised as ever, it was the right time.

8) John Stevens
John Stevens is responsible for three of the greatest disasters ever on Idol: My Girl, Crocodile Rock, and Music of My Heart. All three were almost universally derided, yet his personality got him to sixth place. John represented something truly tragic about Season Three- despite having three of the most vocally talented performers ever to be seen on Idol, it also hosted some of the worst singers in any year. By far the most schizophrenic season of all time, John was the figurehead of the worst of it, and made it further than now-Academy Award-winning Jennifer Hudson (#7 on my Top Ten). That's a disaster in and of itself.

7) Meghan Joy Corkrey
Er, no, it's Megan Joy Corkrey. No, it's Megan Joy. Ah, who cares, she's eliminated. The songbird of a thousand names (and one "Caw! Caw!") turned in one bad performance after the other, and her attitude only got more and more poisonous. She was ousted by America after she asked them to Turn the Lights Down Low, and the judges didn't even pretend to contemplate saving her. She is truly one of the more annoying contestants, and by far the worst of Season Eight.

6) Haley Scarnato
Her name may have sounded like an exclamation (just try it: "Haley Scarnato!"), but there was nothing too exciting about the leggy Season Six finalist. Sanjaya Malakar may have dominated that season with his sensationally bad singing, but Haley was just as bad, if not worse. Still, she knew when her time was up, and finally went down in flames. Points from being a San Antonio homegirl, though.

5) Taylor Hicks
Yes, I'm serious. I know Taylor won, but come on! He may have had a good performance or two, but none of them were memorable. Without looking, name one of his song choices. He had no A Song for You (Elliott Yamin), no Hemmorhage (Chris Daughtry), no Somewhere Over the Rainbow (Katherine McPhee), no These Foolish Things (Paris Bennett), no I Don't Hurt Anymore (Mandisa). In one of the most stellar seasons, he never stood out for anything more than spastic dancing, gray hair, and his idiotic screams of "Soul Patrol!" He might be the one contestant I personally hate the most, but there were others who were worse. Much worse.

4) Kevin Covais
Chicken Little couldn't sing for beans, but he had spunk. Unlike Ed Asner from The Mary Tyler Moore Show, America loves spunk. He was eliminated at his time, before the Top 10 of Season Five (gee, for such a great season, a lot of Fivers show up on this list, no?), which is more than can be said for the next three train wrecks, so he wins some points for that, but he was still an absolute mess.

3) Kristy Lee Cook
If any contestant could rival Taylor Hicks for my most hated, it would be Miss Kristy Lee Cook, also known in my house as She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named-Because-She-Murdered-The-Beatles-Which-Is-An-Unforgivable-Offense. (We don't mention her much at my house, partly because she sucks, and partly because we don't have the lung capacity for that name.) Her Eight Days a Week is my most-hated performance in the show's history, and she survived far too long for my tastes. Plus, her blatant showboating for Middle America's votes by picking God Bless the USA disgusted me. She is, in my opinion, the worst female Idol in the show's eight seasons. And she has a record deal, while Syesha Mercado languishes without one. Which probably makes me hate her even more.

2) Scott Savol
The master of overstaying his welcome, Scott Savol, or "Scotty the Body" as Ryan Seacrest so annoyingly called him, outlasted much better contestants in Season Four and was the first major VotefortheWorst.com victory. He was untalented, a jerk, and deserved to go home long, long before his fifth place finish. I don't harbor the same disdain for him because I wasn't a huge fan of Season Four, and he didn't take down my favorite (Vonzell Solomon, FTW), but he really was an unqualified catastrophe every week.

1) Sanjaya Malakar
You know that guy who takes a joke long after it's stopped being funny and still keeps beating the dead horse until you forget why it was even funny in the first place? Sanjaya was that guy, that joke, and that horse all wrapped up in one screechy, pitchy, arrogant package. Still, he did give us the Crying Girl incident, and since I spent many a night laughing at her, I'll give him a few points. They don't really help anything, though, when your score is already in the low, low negatives. Sanjaya truly was the worst contestant in Idol history, and if there is a God, he'll remain it. We don't need any more like him.

What do you guys think? Did I miss a particularly bad contestant? Was I wrong to pick on Scott or Taylor like I did? Post your thoughts in the comments section!

This... is American Idol's Top Ten

American Idol just finished its eighth season, and thanks to a few popular contestants, as well as possibly the biggest upset victory in eight years, it's finally the buzz-filled, watercooler show that used to dominate the ratings. Despite slipping in viewership again, the actual announcement of the winner drew more viewers than any other in the show's history. Since AI is finally buzzy again, sites like WhatNottoSing.com are becoming popular once more, blogs are getting more traffic than ever, and it's fun to discuss Idol again. Now that we've come to a cool point in Idol history, here's the Top Ten best Idols of all time. And not just the winners; all former finalists are applicable. They're chosen based off of performance in the show and post-Idol experience.

10) Chris Daughtry
The rocker who placed fourth in Season Five has had one of the best careers, with his first album going multiplatinum and selling out arenas on his first tour. He's had major Nickelback-style success, but his attitude and familiar sound create more than a few detractors. He's still one of the best male finalists in history, and he's definitely the champ of Biggest Idol Ego.
Download: It's Not Over, Hemorrage (In My Hands)

9) Jordin Sparks
The Season Six winner didn't deserve to win her season, but she has had a strong career, complete with the most downloaded single from any Idol (No Air). Her new single, Battlefield, was just released, and is enjoying critical success. She is definitely one of the better winners, despite an overall weak performance in her season.
Download: Battlefield, I (Have Nothing)

8) Adam Lambert
He shook up TV's biggest talent show with big performances and bigger glam, but he still couldn't deliver as he was defeated by Kris Allen in the show's biggest upset in eight seasons. Despite this, he was still responsible for some of the best performances last season, and is sure to have a massive international career.
Download: Mad World, Tracks of My Tears

7) Jennifer Hudson
The seventh-place finisher from Season Three is the only Oscar-winner in the show's history, for her historic performance in Dreamgirls. She's both an actress and a Grammy-winning artist. Though she suffered through several major tragedies last year with the deaths of several of her family members, including her beloved mother, her career is on a major upward slope and she'll be here for years to come.
Download: If This Isn't Love, And I Am Telling You

6) Allison Iraheta
Save the rocker! Allison "Cherry Bomb" Iraheta, the fuschia-haired power balladeer from Season Eight rocked out more than a few great performances, yet a tiny fan base led her to be eliminated before the instantly-forgettable Danny Gokey. Still, Daughtry showed us how finishing fourth can boost a post-Idol career. Until her undoubtedly awesome debut album comes around, enjoy two of her finest performances of the season.
Download: Give In to Me, I Don't Wanna Miss a Thing

5) Kris Allen
Don't believe everything you hear. Though Lambert was heavily favored for most of the finals this past season, this Arkansas good ol' boy came on strong with unbelievably strong, innovative performances including the stirring Falling Slowly, the super original She Works Hard for the Money and Heartless, and (in my opinion) his best performance of the season, the genius Ain't No Sunshine. Lambert may have had the bombast, but Allen has the chops.
Download: Heartless, Ain't No Sunshine

4) Carrie Underwood
One of the top champions, Underwood's country stylings allowed her to verge in a different direction from past Idols and forge her own path. Though she didn't catch on right away (Jesus, Take the Wheel was a bigger flop than most remember), a little song called Before He Cheats dug its keys into the side of our pretty little souped-up four-wheel drives and carved its name into the leather seats. The rest, as they say, is history.
Download: Before He Cheats, I Told You So (f/ Randy Travis)

3) Elliott Yamin
Who says nice guys finish last? Turning in consistently good performances throughout Season Five only led Yamin to a third place finish when faced with Taylor Hicks' inexplicable popularity and the unstoppable force that was Katharine McPhee's Somewhere Over the Rainbow. Still, his first album went gold despite being on an independent label, and his single, Wait for You, fared better than anything Hicks or McPhee could dream up. Now with his second album out, the crooner's doing just fine.
Download: Fight for Love, Wait for You

2) Melinda Doolittle
When you think of the shocking eliminations of Idol lore, the names that arise (Gray, Hudson, Maroulis, Daughtry, Johns, Smithson) never include the brilliant Melinda Doolittle, an impressive former backup singer who turned in the most impressive run of performances in Idol history. Yet when faced with two young rivals (Sparks and Blake Lewis), Doolittle fell. Still, she is a brilliant vocalist, and her debut album is better than Lewis and Sparks' efforts combined.
Download: My Funny Valentine, Have a Nice Day

1) Kelly Clarkson
There's no one who tops the original. Clarkson's Stuff Like That There is the best performance in Idol History, she has sold more albums than any other Idol or finalist in eight years, and she has won two Grammys. She famously fought with her label over her artistic direction, which led to the unspeakable mess My December, but she's back with a new album, a new single, and a new attitude. She is truly the American Idol.
Download: Since U Been Gone, Because of You

I'm a Senior, Get Me Out of Here

Give or take a few final exams, I, along with the rest of the class of 2010, am a senior. I can’t begin to fathom what that means. All of a sudden, my world seems like a rush of numbers and deadlines that are all so finite, so within reach. Everything I’ve been working for over the past three years is finally coming to a head. Hours of extracurriculars, studying for exams, arguing over course registration, and balancing social life, home life, work life, and school life, all finally mean something. The résumé I’ve spent years discussing so hypothetically becomes all the more real when it starts getting sent out to colleges. Those SAT and ACT scores I’ve been meaning to raise have to get much better during the summer. And those college visits that everyone harps on about need to get taken.

But this is my senior year. I don’t want to focus so much on getting to where I need to go that I lose sight of what’s around me. I have plenty of high school left to experience. This summer, I’ll be working at Target once again, and will be getting a car (finally!). I’m also writing a screenplay with a couple friends of mine, and hopefully shooting it, too. I wanna go on road trips, party with friends, and live my life without worrying every second about what comes next.

When the year starts, I’ll have a fantastic schedule that will actually allow me to relax every once in a while, do Varsity Drama, which I’ve wanted to do for years, take Creative Writing, and still take a few interesting AP classes. I’ll have six more issues of the newspaper to put out in my tenure, this time with Mrs. Kirby at the helm of Desktop Publishing. I’ve got an all-new staff to work with:

- Joe Aragon - David Cruz
- Stephen Muela - Austin Sandford
- Isabel Swartz - Nicollette Violante
- Cody Ruggio - Alice Schneider
- Arianna Zeb - Elizabeth Hoover
- Eric Sherrill - Zach Ojeda
- Stephen McDonald - Irene Minderhoud
- Emma Nicolas - Sierra Mountain
- Patrick Roland - Alex Zeb
- Kira Parsons

I’ve got a great group of friends to make the next year a blast with, too. From my best friends to my long-time friends to friends I want to get to know better to friends I haven’t even made yet, there truly isn’t a better group of people to spend the days with.

Junior year wasn’t one I’m going to remember too fondly. Sure, there were some incredibly fun moments, and the summer before is one I’ll never forget, but it was too high-drama, not enough carefree fun. A lot of it was my fault, too. I don’t want my senior year to be like that. I want senior year to be fun.

And if I don’t screw it up too bad, it should be.

The Most Predictable Oscars Ever

Sorry this is so late, guys. I'm still recovering from my 75% score. Then again, a 75% is a B in Oscarology. But I'm taking it and running with it.

I went 18/24 overall on Sunday, and 10/12 in the major categories. Unfortunately for the readers, the closest score next to mine was 9/12, so there was no winner. Thanks to you guys who did contribute, though, and for recognition's sake, the runner-up to me was Nicollette, with 9/12, missing only Director in addition to my misses.

Speaking of which, here's a breakdown of Oscar Night, including the awards I missed.

My God, That Set
I'm pretty sure that the set was designed by God himself, because it was BEAUTIFUL. The crystal curtain alone was enough to get the guy an Oscar himself for Art Direction. It was gorgeous.

Wow, She Can Sing
That opening number from Hugh Jackman was great. Better was Anne Hathaway's involvement. I thought she was actually a decent singer, much to my surprise. And "I haven't seen The Reader would become the rallying cry of this Oscars.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz! (1/1) Don't worry, honey, even if you had fainted, you still would have looked beautiful.

Speaking of Beautiful...
Getting the worst snubbing for the most beautiful dress: Marisa Tomei.

Steve and Tina Take the Screenplay Categories
Don't remember who actually won the Screenplay categories? I don't blame you, what with the hilarity Steve Martin and Tina Fey brought upon the audience. By the way, it was Dustin Lance Black for Milk for Original and Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire for Adapted. (3/3) And the Slumdog Count is at 1.

Weirdest. Title. Ever.
After the completely expected win for WALL*E, the animated short La Maison en Petits Cubes won in its category. I forgot to be angry that Presto lost. I was too busy trying to prounounce the winner's title. (4/5)

Carrie's New Man: James Bond!
Sarah Jessica Parker and Daniel Craid aren't the weirdest pairing, but they're up there. Still, props for getting through Best Art Direction and Best Makeup (both Benjamin Button) and Best Costume Design (The Duchess) quickly, though it was the first set of categories that could easily put you to sleep... (6/8)

Give Ben Stiller His Oscar
His biting parody of Joaquin Phoenix's drugged-out performance on David Letterman was the most brilliant moment of the night. And Natalie Portman's reference to his "Haasidic meth lab" doled out the funniest line of the night. By the by, Slumdog took their award, Best Cinematography, raising the SD Count to 2. (7/9)

A Toyland and a Broken Doll
Sorry to Toyland's producers that Seth Rogen laughed at the German title. Seth, much to your dismay, German isn't funny simply because it's German. Nor are you funny simply because Judd Apatow makes your career. (8/10) Then there was that musical number, and oh, God, it was awful. Beyonce resembled a broken Barbie doll (never mind her lip-synching), the younger couples couldn't hold their own, and Hugh Jackman cancelled out his goodwill from the first performance with this disaster. Sorry, Hugh, you're back to neutral for me.

Best Supporting Obviousness
Heath Ledger did deserve this, and I'm glad his family's acceptance speech was eelegant, to say the least. But shocking? Not in the least. (9/11)

Documentarians
Worst two categories of the show? Quite possibly. Man on Wire takes Best Documentary Feature, and Smile Pinki takes Best Documentary Short Subject. (10/13)

Will Smith Presents the Rest of the Show
I'll forgive the Iron Man-type entrance because Will Smith had to present four awards in a row. I'm not joking. Best Visual Effects (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Best Sound Mixing (The Dark Knight's second win of the night), and the first two awards of the Slumdog 4-in-a-row: Best Sound Mixing and Best Film Editing. (The SD Count is now at 4, and my record is 13/17.)

Jai Ho!
Raising the SD Count to 6, Slumdog Millionaire prevailed over a really, really, really, REALLY bad Best Original Song medley and a bad "Jai Ho!" cover by the Pussycat Dolls (ugh) to win Best Original Song and Best Original Score. Which will both be forgotten by next year. (15/19)

What in God's name is Departures?!
Best Foreign Film? Not The Class. Not Waltz with Bashir. No, instead, it's some movie from Japan. That I've never heard of. Stupid (15/20).

The Big Four
Best Director to Danny Boyle (good), Best Actress to Kate Winslet (boo), Best Actor to Sean Penn (yay?), and Best Picture to Slumdog Millionaire (YES!). And with an SD Count of 8 and my personal record fo (18/24). And, like the Oscar night itself, you just want it all to end about two hours in.

Final Length: 3 hrs. and 27 min.
Final Grade: B+ (but it's weak)

Pick Yer Horses

This is it. No more analysis. No more oddsmaking. Just my predictions for the winners of twelve big categories for this year’s Academy Awards. And now it’s time for you to make yours. As stated earlier, however, anyone who attends SMCA currently is welcome to attempt predictions. For the winner, the one who out-predicts me by the largest margin, your prize will be a collection of candy, other prizes, and one Academy Award-winning film, one that will be a personal favorite of mine.

Here’s how it’ll work. In the comments section of this post on Facebook (and only Facebook), you all will put, in the same order I use here, your twelve predicted winners for Oscar night. Not who you want to win; who you truly believe will walk away with the gold. Your first entry is your only entry; you cannot change after you’ve predicted. To win, you must out-predict me.

With all that said, let’s get started!

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Will Win: Sean Penn, Milk

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Will Win: Meryl Streep, Doubt

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Will Win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Original Screenplay
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black

Will Win: Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley

Will Win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Song
"Down to Earth" from WALL-E, Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman (music), Peter Gabriel (lyrics)
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman and M.I.A.

Will Win: “Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)

Best Foreign Language Film
Revanche (Austria)
The Class (France)
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
Departures (Japan)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

Will Win: Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Will Win: WALL-E

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat
Defiance, James Newton Howard
Milk, Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman
WALL-E, Thomas Newman

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Accepting your picks now! Good luck!

I Have Special Skills. Skills That Allow Me...

...that will allow me to pick the Oscar winners. Sorry, bad parody of a bad movie.

I hope you're ready, readers, because after this post, you have only three days to prepare to make your picks. As a reminder, after I place my predictions in a note entitled "Pick Yer Horses", you will have the full week to make your predictions in the twelve categories I have chosen. Those categories are: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Original Song, Best Director, Best Original Score, Best Animated Feature, and Best Picture. You must bet in every category, and the picks must be posted in the comments section of that note. If your picks outscore mine, you will get a fabulous prize package of candy and a few other special things. (Including a copy of a favorite Oscar-winning film of mine!) Anyone who attends SMCA is welcome to place bets. Remember, you have to outpick me; tying me won't help you.

Now that that's out of the way, onto the last four categories!

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Breakdown: Um... is this really a question? Other than Heath Ledger, this is the surest bet at the show this year. WALL-E.

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat
Defiance, James Newton Howard
Milk, Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman
WALL-E, Thomas Newman

Breakdown: Does anyone remember Elfman's music? Newman's most memorable music wasn't original, so it doesn't count in this category. Howard's music was great, but it's hard to win on your movie's only nomination. Desplat's music is the only rival to Rahman's, but there's not much contest. Rahman's got this one sewn up.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Breakdown: Van Sant didn't do a whole lot of directing, just letting his actors do what they do best. Daldry screwed up a brilliant book. Fincher's a terrible campaigner, and is only poisoning the voters' minds. Howard took a few too many liberties with the truth. Boyle's already won all major awards and will take this easy.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Breakdown: Throw it to the Dog. Milk isn't nearly as inspiring as it should be for its subject matter. The Reader and Frost/Nixon just weren't strong enough to qualify for nominations, much less a win. It could be the traditionalistic Button, but with the recent awards sweep, I would bet anything that Slumdog will take it.

All right guys, get ready. Sunday will be the start of the Inaugural AIWWAF Oscar Predict-Off!

"...What's 'In Brugjez'?"

Say that title phonetically. I had someone ask me that earlier this week. *hangs head in shame*

I know I promised y'all the writing categories this week, but I'm throwing in Best Original Song and Best Foreign Language Film for flavor. Next week, along with Best Picture and Best Director, you'll also get Best Original Score and Best Animated Film. Keep those categories in mind, and start doing your research, because you'll need that knowledge soon...

Best Original Screenplay
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black

Breakdown: AKA The Category That Screwed Woody Allen and Jenny Lumet. Not that I'm bitter or anything. I mean, Lumet only crafted the best wedding film's script in recent memory, Rachel Getting Married. And Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona may have been his funniest, sexiest script since 2005's Match Point, and THAT got an Oscar nom, but who cares, really? No, I'm not bitter. Not bitter at all. One good thing did happen, though: Nick Schenk's tragic Gran Torino script got left out, as part of the film's overall snub. Out of the films that were nominated, WALL-E, though a great film in so many respects, shouldn't win because it almost completely ignores the most difficult part of screenwriting: dialogue. Frozen River's nod was great, and that's all it'll get. Happy-Go-Lucky couldn't get its star nominated, so the script's victory feels very dark horse. Like black horse. Black Horse and the Cherry Tree-type dark horse. That leaves it to the incredibly funny In Bruges and the bland, stylized Milk. Though McDonagh deserves it, I'm afraid Black's too young and talented for the Academy to ignore. (By the way, I say that in a good way, not a bad one.)

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley

Breakdown: For all of y'all who thought The Dark Knight deserved a nod here, go back and watch TDK again, paying special attention to before and after Bruce Wayne's toast at the party for Harvey Dent. The writing is truly terrible. Okay, moving on to the nominated scripts. The play adaptations will vote-split, so Morgan and Shanley are out of luck. Roth's gonna get a lot of backlash for essentially remaking his Forrest Gump screenplay and merging it with an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story. Also, Fitzgerald needed only 12 pages for his story. Why did Roth need a 3-hour movie? Hare's script pales in comparison to the original book, and his faux-happy ending still sickens me. So Beaufoy should walk away with this trophy easy.

Best Original Song
"Down to Earth" from WALL-E, Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman (music), Peter Gabriel (lyrics)
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire, A. R. Rahman and M.I.A.

Breakdown: How will this go? The Disney route? Then "Earth" wins. The celebrity route? The M.I.A. collaboration "O...Saya" takes it. The real best song? "The Wrestler" will...oh, wait. If they really give it to the best song nominated here, it'll be for "Jai Ho", but I'm betting on "Earth".

Best Foreign Language Film
Revanche (Austria)
The Class (France)
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
Departures (Japan)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

Breakdown: I liked inevitable winner Bashir. I'll be happy when it wins. It's a good movie. Not the best movie in this group, though. That honor goes to the French film. The Class is brilliant, beautiful, and absolutely incredible. But it's not Bashir, and this year, that's all that matters.

Next week's post will go over the last four categories. Then, one week from the big show, I'll post my picks for those 12 categories. I want everyone I tag to post their picks. Whomever beats me by the largest margin will get a prize (read: candy). The caveat is that you must BEAT me. Tying me is no good, and even if you beat me by a good margin, unless you're the #1, you won't win the big prize. All picks must be on the post entitled "Pick Yer Horse", that will be up on February 15th.

Good luck to everyone! Start researching Oscar blogs and get ready to place your bets!

I...am an Actor!

Not really. But the following 20 men and women do fancy themselves actors of the highest craft. And rightly so. They are this year's acting Oscar nominees.

In the weeks up to the Academy Awards ceremony, I'll be focusing on a specific area of nominations: this week acting, next week writing, the next producing/directing. I'll examine each race very closely and come up with my best judgment about the nominees' chances and who really should and will win.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Breakdown: Jenkins' real honor is to be nominated. Unfortunately, the guy didn't win at the SAG Awards, which was his best chance to win. Among not only actors, but producers, directors, writers, artists, etc., he won't be able to muster enough support to win. Langella started the season strong, but Rourke and Pitt have bogged him down. Pitt's nomination is more for the movie than for him. That leaves the two most likely candidates- Penn and Rourke. Rourke has the older vote, as well as the comeback vote. Penn has the youth vote and the Prop 8 vote. Simply because of the times, I'm betting on a Penn win. Who should win? Langella embodied the paranoia and disturbia of Richard Nixon. He deserves the trophy most of all.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Breakdown: What was said about Jenkins above applies to Leo here. Jolie, like her significant other, won't win because the nod is more for her movie. Streep, Winslet, and Hathway could all walk away with the gold on Oscar night. I'd prefer Streep to win it, because her performance was the most dynamic. The growing faction that LOVES Winslet is hoping she'll win because she's never won. Personally, I don't follow that line of thinking, but her performance is good enough to upset. Finally, there's the incredible breakout that is Hathaway. Her performance was career-redefining, and she deserves the Oscar, but she's going up against the best actresses in America. It would take a miracle.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Breakdown: Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Ledger. Did I mention Ledger?

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Breakdown: The tightest race of the show, just like last year. Also just like last year, it breaks down to four serious competitors: Adams, Cruz, Davis, and Henson. Though Tomei is great, she's so overshadowed by Mickey Rourke she can't see the sunshine for anything. Davis is more deserving for Doubt than Adams is, but Adams' nomination wasn't even expected, so don't be surprised if she pulls a Tilda Swinton and takes this category. Henson is great in her role, but if the Oscars are going to reward a black actress this year, Davis is the more likely of the two. Cruz's Maria Elena is a slow burn throughout Barcelona, and she's great, but it's a comedic performance. In the Academy's eyes, that makes it easier. Davis might suffer from vote splitting with Adams, but I still see her as ultimately likelier.

Sorry, Clint. Too Bad, Kate.

OSCAR NODS ARE OFFICIALLY OUT!

And I didn't do too badly. I fared better than Kate Winslet and Clint Eastwood, at least. But more on them later. First, the scorecard.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

The Result: I got Jenkins right, but got Pitt wrong. Eastwood's snub was shocking to me, but unfortunately for the guy, it wasn't the last of his movie's snubs...

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

The Result: Winslet got punished for trying to campaign in different categories. She won't get a chance at winning for her stronger performance, April Wheeler in Revolutionary Road, because her Reader role shut it out. Hawkins lost out in favor of Leo, who is a vastly better choice.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

The Result: Poor Dev Patel got snubbed, but it's good to see Shannon here. Otherwise, no changes.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

The Result: Winslet's supporting campaign getting overruled led to an extra spot here, which, of course, went to Adams.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
The Reader, David Hare

The Result: Like I said, no surer list. My only 5-for-5.

Best Original Screenplay
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonaugh
WALL*E, Andrew Stanton

The Result: Whoops. My only true screw-up, I only managed to get one of the five right. Then again, there were more than a few come-from-nowhere nominations.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

The Result: Nolan's demeanor screwed him out of a nod, as I predicted it might. Daldry's inclusion seems to be only one part of what was a Reader comeback. Congratulations to him. He's still got no shot next to Boyle.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

The Result: I won't lie: I'm not happy that Button and Frost/Nixon both wormed their way into this category. However, The Dark Knight's exclusion meant good things for The Reader. And, like the directing category, it doesn't matter. All four will fall to Slumdog.

30 for 40. Not bad in the grand sceme of things. Still a C, but in Oscarology, that's really a passing grade. So what are my new predictions for the winners? I'm so glad I asked...

Best Actor
Should Win: Langella
Will Win: Rourke

Best Actress
Should Win: Hathaway
Will Win: Streep

Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Ledger
Will Win: Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Davis
Will Win: Cruz

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Beaufoy
Will Win: Beaufoy

Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Black
Will Win: Black

Best Director
Should Win: Boyle
Will Win: Boyle

Best Picture
Should Win: Slumdog
Will Win: Slumdog

This will be updated basically every week leading up to the Oscars on February 22nd. Now that the nominations are out, post your picks in the comments section! I'll even keep a running pool of people's picks, and determine the winner after the statues are handed out. The categories are Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture. Pick both a Should and Will Win for each; in other words, which do you believe is the best, and which do you believe will get the Oscar. Thanks for reading and posting, and keep watching for more AIWWAF OscarWatch posts!

Last Train to Oscarville

This is going to be my last Oscar Nominations post, meaning that no posts after this one will aim at predicting the nominees of the Oscars. All future Oscar posts are about predicting the WINNERS.

At least one reader pointed out to me that conceivably, things have not remained so static after the Golden Globes. Upon closer examination, I believe him correct. So, for the final time before the nominations are announced, here are my Oscar nominee predictions.

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Breakdown: Jenkins' inclusion is due to no clear fifth nominee (DiCaprio? Pitt?) and a surprisingly strong pre-Oscar awards showing. If his movie is too invisible for Oscar voters, however, watch Brad Pitt take that spot for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I do believe that Eastwood, Langella, Penn, and Rourke are guaranteed nominations.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Breakdown: Well, so much for Winslet failing to secure a nomination. Her surprise victories at the Globes will boost her here, but I hope that the more deserving Hathaway or Streep win the award. Hawkins, Jolie, Melissa Leo, and Kristin Scott Thomas could all fall in the last two slots, but personally, I'd love to see Kate Beckinsdale for Nothing But The Truth in one of those spots. Lord knows she deserves it more than Jolie.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Breakdown: Franco's out, Patel's back in, but it's all just a ridiculous game of cards at this point. Ledger's got this award sewn up, and anyone who is willing to hear any BS indicating otherwise needs to wake up and smell the Joker.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Breakdown: Well, so much for simplicity. The HFPA have made Winslet viable here again, but I really don't want her to win for such a substandard role. Give it to Cruz! Give it to Davis! Give it to Tomei! Even give it to the superbly weak Henson! BUT DON'T GIVE WINSLET THIS OSCAR! As far as nominations go, this might be the most secure category. Henson's pretty unsteady here, and she should worry about Amy Adams for Doubt or Vera Farmiga for Nothing But The Truth, but these five are the smartest bets.

Best Original Song
"The Wrestler", The Wrestler
"Barking at the Moon", Bolt
"Can I Have This Dance", High School Musical 3
"Gran Torino", Gran Torino
"Down to Earth", WALL*E

Breakdown: More competitive category than it usually is this year, even though the fear that High School Musical 3 songs could sweep the category is quelled. A new rule prohibits more than 2 songs from any one movie, in an attempt to stop what happened the last two years: three-way vote splitting from Enchanted and Dreamgirls. So HSM3 will probably only get one song in; the current, fun ballad "Can I Have This Dance" seems like a logical choice. "The Wrestler", "Down to Earth", and "Gran Torino" are all guaranteed in. Upsets could come from "Once in a Lifetime" (Cadillac Records), "I Thought I Lost You" (Bolt), and "I Want It All" (HSM3).

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
The Reader, David Hare

Breakdown: No surer list, really. Hare might get bumped off, but I doubt it.

Best Original Screenplay
Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Woody Allen
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Burn After Reading, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Rachel Getting Married, Jenny Lumet
Gran Torino, Nick Schenk

Breakdown: No less steady list. That, my friends, is the difference between Original and Adapted. Changeling, Happy-Go-Lucky, and WALL*E all could sneak onto this list, and the Coen brothers or Schenk could get bumped right off. I'm fairly confident in these five, but one word of warning: comedies are favored in this category. Right now I have three dramas to two comedies. If Happy-Go-Luckywriter Mike Leigh were to sneak in, as he is very likely to do, it'll probably be for Torino writer Schenk.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Breakdown: Van Sant's presence here irks me to no end, but what can I say? Pundits love the Milk. Nolan needs to watch his back for a more prestigious film to sweep in and take his nomination. His unappreciative, unworthy speeches for Ledger haven't been winning him points. Still, these five are about as certain as you can get in Oscarology.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Breakdown: Almost every Oscarologist has this list right now. It's widely being accepted as the final five. However, I think it stinks. For one thing, Button and Frost/Nixon have not won ONE critics' prize for Best Picture COMBINED. Meanwhile, Doubt, WALL*E, The Wrestler, and Revolutionary Road have picked up at least one EACH. Plus, I'm no fan of The Dark Knight's presence on this list. Slumdog Millionaire is the only movie that truly, wholly, 100% deserves its place here. And that's why it will win Best Picture. That's right. More than a month before showtime, before voting even takes place, I'm calling Slumdog as the Best Picture of the year.

I'll post a scorecard as well as winners' picks the day of the nominations announcements, the 22nd. Keep posted on all your AIWWAF updates as Oscar season progresses, and comment on either my Blogspot or my Facebook!